85% feels like an overestimate to me; please, prove me wrong. There are a few considerations pushing my estimate down:
1. Aviation flow will naturally decrease significantly due to sanctions (see [this thread](https://mobile.twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020) and [this announcement](https://t.me/s7newsroom/124)). So the emigration flow will naturally be restricted. There will be just a limited number of flights to Istanbul and Dubai.
2. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces), Russia has 1M people in...
In [an interview](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/andy-weber-rendering-bioweapons-obsolete/#chances-that-covid-19-escaped-from-a-research-facility-010155) to 80,000 Hours podcast, Andy Weber, who was the US Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction, said:
> Andy Weber: Well, over time, evidence for natural spread hasn’t been produced, we haven’t found the intermediate species, you know, the pangolin that was talked about last year. I actually think that the odds that this was a laboratory-acq...
The publication date of [this](https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html) (now deleted article) suggests that they aimed to finish in ~72 hours.
> Россия восстанавливает свое единство — трагедия 1991 года, этой страшной катастрофы нашей истории, ее противоестественный вывих, преодолены. Да, большой ценой, да, через трагические события фактически гражданской войны, потому что сейчас пока еще стреляют друг в друга братья, разделенные принадлежностью к русской и украинским армиям, — но Украины как анти-Росс...
A relevant thread about aviation: https://mobile.twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020
> Very few aircraft are actually owned by airlines, and instead most are owned by lessor companies, most of which are Irish. Under the sanctions regime, the view in the legal community is that those leases have to be terminated, otherwise Irish companies will be criminally liable.
> More importantly: Russian operators are unable to effect insurances. Without those, no national aviation authority will allow access to its airspace. This would in effect mea...
https://longbets.org/9/ now points to this question as an operationalization of the bet: “A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.”
Replying to a few requests for clarification of intent: "technically impossible to leave" = a fairly agentic person can't leave the country without taking much risk. If you can either buy a train/flight ticket (even if expensive) or drive out in a vehicle (even if the line is long) or cross the border (legally) on foot — it's not technically impossible to leave. Capital controls are immaterial.
State owned companies use the stick directly and prohibit their workers to leave the country. Consider this executive order by Rogozin, the CEO of a state owned Roskosmos aerospace company. He prohibited his employees to go abroad, correctly understanding they might not return
> Conscription rules are getting tougher
>
> Today, the State Duma will adopt a law on toughening the rules for conscription for military service. Now the draft summons can be sent by registered mail. If he does not receive a letter and does not appear at the recruiting station on his own, this will be a criminal offense.
>
> Against the background of the failures of the Russian army, this looks like preparation for mobilization. Recently, the Ministry of Defense has already acknowledged that the conscripts were sent to war with Ukraine.
via https://t.m...
Wei Dai [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RukXjEvMfqDKRJaup/what-will-be-the-big-picture-implications-of-the-coronavirus#2mcb949cKj2TxpiRK) as a response to "What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?".
> The world is probably going to lose 5̶ 2.5-10% of its population (3̶8̶0̶ 190-760 million, see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RukXjEvMfqDKRJaup/what-will-be-the-big-picture-implications-of-the-coronavirus?commentId=jsQangaXXye8HiQnx) for the reason for my edit), **wors...
- Since the end of the Cold War, enlargements of NATO happen roughly every 5.3 years, leading to a naive guess of 35%. Probably an overestimate due to Germany's unification and Warsaw pact countries. So the base rate => 15% to 30%.
- Lower end seems reasonable, given that there are 3 NATO aspirant countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine, and some other plausible candidates like Finland, Sweden, and Ireland.
- I haven't looked deeply into the specific countries. Still, neither aspirants nor "plausible candidates" look probable under busine...
@(sbares), indeed.
@moderators, would it be possible to change "coins" to "assets" in the "question" fields of these questions:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239
Also, I would appreciate putting them (and [Polymarket one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240)) into a new category e.g. "crypto counterparty risk" subcategory of "...
The community median is 90% seems to be in tension with GJO's 54% for a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Russia and Ukraine by Sep 2022.
@(Tamay) thank you! I submitted the similar questions for [Binance](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/), [Bitfinex](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/), [Coinbase](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/), [BitMEX](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/), [Huboi](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/), and [Polymarket](https://www.metaculus....