I have similar concerns to some of the other commenters: >This may also resolve positively if Russia formally recognizes an independent state within the same region. This seems like it introduces some ambiguities. What if Russia recognizes a People's Republic of Kherson, gets beaten back so the territory is controlled by Ukraine, but never formally rescinds its recognition? That would seem to go against the spirit of the question, but would result in a positive resolution, correct? Maybe if they recognize an independent state, that state should hav...
@(AdamRen) Thanks for the reminder. To be honest I haven't been keeping my file particularly up to date, but this was a good reminder to dust it off a bit. First, a sanity check to try to peer through the fog of war. If you look at the ongoing Siege of Mariupol, official tallies are 2,500 civilians dead, but with estimates up to [20,000](https://web.archive.org/web/20220315173842/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/world/europe/mariupol-death-toll-ukraine.html) as of March 15, surely higher since then. The total is likely somewhere in between - Ukrainian...
Final prediction: 5%. A very significant drop from my initial forecast of 72% on February 22 with a post explaining my thinking at [75% on February 24th](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/#comment-82638). Mostly making a note for future reference. This was a tough one to model. Between factors on the ground in Kyiv, factors elsewhere in Ukraine, and the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, I've rarely seen such a significant change in approximately a month. I've moderately contrary to the community...

@ad42astra My guess: Russia has been amassing ships in the Black Sea, including amphibious assault ships. Odessa is the likely target if they're utilized, as it is a major trade route into Ukraine and the only target on the coast worth much since Russia already controls Crimea. Kyiv is less exposed.

I think the community's forecast is too low in both cases (I am 57% Kyiv, 60% Odessa) but some split is probably not too surprising.

@(gmc) [This polling](https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1525184098460872706) was linked in another question recently (can't find it again, sorry) and it indicates that 17% of Americans think *Loving* will likely or definitely be overturned, 25% thought there was a 50% chance, and only 32% thought it would definitely not happen. That's far higher than I would have expected. Granted, it's just one poll, but this is some evidence that the Metaculus forecast is actually very far into the minority in society writ large. Of course, I agree that proba...
With the increased focus on racial issues in the US, it would be interesting to forecast what areas will or will not see convergence in the future. Some ideas, which I'm happy to help flesh out: 1. What will the average Black American income in 2030/2040/2050 be, as a percentage of average White American income? (For instance, it was [61% in 2018](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/)) 2. What will the difference in bachelors degree attainment be between Black Americans and White Americans in 20...
[Latest Update from Scott:](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/09/11/update-on-my-situation/) >It’s been two and a half months since I deleted the blog, so I owe all of you an update on recent events. >I haven’t heard anything from the New York Times one way or the other. Since nothing has been published, I’d assume they dropped the article, except that they approached an acquaintance for another interview last month. Overall I’m confused. >But they definitely haven’t given me any explicit reassurance that they won’t reveal my private information. And no...

@mishasamin Thanks. Very interesting that Metaculus, even though conflicted, has been far more open to the possibility than the GJ superforecasters. Without counting our chickens before they're hatched, I wonder how often "we" offer better predictions than they do rather than the reverse? I wonder if anyone's done a systematic look at comparable questions. Would be interesting to know when evaluating variations in consensus.

@equationist The draft resolution link is still working for me?

On page 2, it says:

Recalling General Assembly resolution 377 A (V) of 3 November 1950, entitled “Uniting for peace”, and taking into account that the lack of unanimity of the permanent members of the Security Council at its 8979th meeting has prevented it from exercising its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security,

Out of curiosity, how many active Metaculus users are there?

@(TeeJayKay) Base rate seems like a good place to start. Getting a better guess would probably require identifying likely conflict points and whether any of them have probabilities that are connected to time of the year (weather patterns, elections, etc). I haven't tried to do that yet since it seems like a lot of work for something that would probably be swamped by other factors. But off the top of my head, a thorough analysis could look at things like: The Taiwan straits. There's some analysis (see the table reproduced [here](https://foreignpolicy.com...

@Jgalt Article title should have noted that he was retired and working security, not in uniform or active in service.

Having said that...what a tragedy. Seventy-seven years old, shot, dying on Facebook Live.

@(Glossy) >He thinks Washington wanted to create a false flag operation in the Donbass, something bloody, in order to draw Russia into a war. The central premise here is dumb. The US has plenty on its plate between COVID still being around, inflation, and trying (again!) to pivot to Asia, where we have a lot more immediate interests than the Donbass. Joe Biden would love nothing more than for Putin to say "OK fine, we'll just keep things status quo for a couple of years and just keep talking with the Ukrainians about what to do with the Donbass." He'd...

@AlyssaStevens It would, thank very you!

In addition to being easier to resolve, I think it would be helpful for predictive purposes to have aligned resolution criteria so it's easier to compare the different questions based on timeline only, and not timeline and criteria.

Will Joe Biden run for a second presidential term in 2024?

When will it be legal to fly on a domestic US commercial airline flight without wearing a mask?

@johnnycaffeine Interesting angle to consider.

As an aside, this could be an interesting question to propose: will Ukraine launch any ground assaults on Russian territory? My only hesitation is around resolution criteria - I'm not a big fan of the "100 troops" criteria these days....

@(RyanBeck) Since you're so active on other prediction sites, I'm curious about your views on questions on those sites vs. Metaculus. One area that seems different to me in a minor but quantifiable way is that Metaculus forecast prompts tend to be longer on average, with a lot more background detail or specifics regarding edge cases and resolution criteria. E.g. the GJOpen question on Ukrainian refugees is [62 words](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2357-as-of-15-july-2022-how-many-refugees-will-have-fled-ukraine-since-24-february-2022-according-to-unh...

@TeeJayKay Absolutely amazing stuff. The man just refuses to put down the shovel.

Up to 95% .

@mishasamin The Supreme Court can only get involved in a situation like this if there's a case that gets appealed up to them. They don't get to just decide the winner, just resolve conflicts about how to interpret laws around counting rules, deadlines, etc. As far as I can tell the Trump campaign does not have any objections based in evidence that are likely to change the result in any state, much the less multiple states necessary.

For full disclosure, I put this at 1% yesterday.

@AlyssaStevens It does, but it doesn't look like this question was updated as well?