@ad42astra My guess: Russia has been amassing ships in the Black Sea, including amphibious assault ships. Odessa is the likely target if they're utilized, as it is a major trade route into Ukraine and the only target on the coast worth much since Russia already controls Crimea. Kyiv is less exposed.
I think the community's forecast is too low in both cases (I am 57% Kyiv, 60% Odessa) but some split is probably not too surprising.
@mishasamin Thanks. Very interesting that Metaculus, even though conflicted, has been far more open to the possibility than the GJ superforecasters. Without counting our chickens before they're hatched, I wonder how often "we" offer better predictions than they do rather than the reverse? I wonder if anyone's done a systematic look at comparable questions. Would be interesting to know when evaluating variations in consensus.
@equationist The draft resolution link is still working for me?
On page 2, it says:
Recalling General Assembly resolution 377 A (V) of 3 November 1950, entitled “Uniting for peace”, and taking into account that the lack of unanimity of the permanent members of the Security Council at its 8979th meeting has prevented it from exercising its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security,
Out of curiosity, how many active Metaculus users are there?
@Jgalt Article title should have noted that he was retired and working security, not in uniform or active in service.
Having said that...what a tragedy. Seventy-seven years old, shot, dying on Facebook Live.
@AlyssaStevens It would, thank very you!
In addition to being easier to resolve, I think it would be helpful for predictive purposes to have aligned resolution criteria so it's easier to compare the different questions based on timeline only, and not timeline and criteria.
Will Joe Biden run for a second presidential term in 2024?
When will it be legal to fly on a domestic US commercial airline flight without wearing a mask?
@johnnycaffeine Interesting angle to consider.
As an aside, this could be an interesting question to propose: will Ukraine launch any ground assaults on Russian territory? My only hesitation is around resolution criteria - I'm not a big fan of the "100 troops" criteria these days....
@TeeJayKay Absolutely amazing stuff. The man just refuses to put down the shovel.
Up to 95% .
@mishasamin The Supreme Court can only get involved in a situation like this if there's a case that gets appealed up to them. They don't get to just decide the winner, just resolve conflicts about how to interpret laws around counting rules, deadlines, etc. As far as I can tell the Trump campaign does not have any objections based in evidence that are likely to change the result in any state, much the less multiple states necessary.
For full disclosure, I put this at 1% yesterday.
@AlyssaStevens It does, but it doesn't look like this question was updated as well?