@(wobblybobby) @admins Re-upping this. What kind of evidence do we need for a positive resolution? Do we need a single source documenting 100 troops at a time or 100 troops total or can it be pieced together through various different stories? My concern is if we let this linger and there's a ceasefire, between the passage of time and the fog of war we may not continue to get stories on prior incursions with a level of detail sufficient to provide a clear resolution, or at least a specific resolution date.  There's clear evidence of multiple incursions o...
@(Uncle Jeff) So this is actually a really interesting question that may make this question hard to resolve if both races go to a runoff. The runoff election is [January 5, 2020](http://cbsnews.com/news/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-perdue-ossoff-leoffler-warnock-january/). It appears that in recent years the Majority Leader has been selected on [January 3, 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_leaders_of_the_United_States_Senate). Wikipedia says: >The Senate Majority Leader and Minority Leader are two United States senators and members of the pa...
@(FJehn) Sure, that's fine. I'm not seeking to convince you per se - I just wanted to stick up for the community forecast, since I didn't see anyone doing that! A lot of this hinges on how long you think the war is going to go on and at what pace. I don't think it's likely that this question will resolve positively, but if you told me this war would go on for another year, I would probably go up to 2/3 chance.  To illustrate what I'm talking about, I made this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PRrfg-rWUhgCaO8sp7cDe4-oYdz27wW5/edit#gi...
Here's an [interesting twitter thread](https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1511399902265360385) looking at Russian tank losses, comparing Ukrainian claims (676) with what's been documented in open sources (425), as well as inferred losses behind Russian lines (~115-120) or salvaged by the Russians (~111)(. The conclusion is that their claims of 676 tanks destroyed may not be far off. Looking at the same sources for [aircraft](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html) against the same Ukrainian graphi...
@(Dumbledores_Army) I hate to be "that guy" (and will lose a lot of points if this resolves negatively, having been at 99% since February 24) but I don't think the saboteurs are good evidence. That same section starts by talking about "three Russian saboteurs dressed as Ukrainian soldiers". The resolution criteria requires "at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner". Presumably if they were dressed Ukrainian soldiers they were not wearing Russian insignia or waving Russian banners. Perhaps some of the other 57...
@(exmateriae) Given how the points are weighted, if you predict today (especially now that the community average has increased so much) and the opinion comes out in a few weeks, you're probably not going to get many points. If you're trying to make the leaderboard, a few last minute questions like this are going to be largely irrelevant. On the other hand, if you stick around and become a valuable long-term member because you jumped in on a hot news item, that's great for the community! Jumping in late on questions like these will help your Brier score,...

FiveThirtyEight Senate Model is live

Republicans 42%, Democrats 58%

It looks like the community's prediction reached the low 40s in late Aug, so that's pretty impressive.

@augustrushrox I'm sure they'd love to. But will they be able to do so in the next 39 days? They got whipped attempting to take Mykolaiv on the way early in the war. They're going to do this while trying to beat the Ukrainians in Donetsk and Luhansk, and with considerably uncertainty about the viability of the Black Sea Fleet after what happened to the Moskva? Not soon, and if they lose the battle for the East, almost certainly not at all.

@panashe Just confirmed it myself. If you don't own Gamestop stock, it won't even show up when you search for the company. Incredible.

@casens The issue I see with this whole series is that media reports are often pretty vague - most do not have even approximate numbers included. So we're mostly left with either piecing together twitter videos or waiting to see most or all of the city gets taken (like Mariupol) since that requires >100 soldiers. So I guess my question is: if we don't get a New York Times article saying "101 Russian troops entered Kharkiv city limits on X day" but we do have significant evidence that it may have occurred, what's the probability needed for a positive r...

With the rapidly evolving Gamestop stock situation that closed one question after four days, I think it would be fun to have some more. Some suggestions:

What will the Gamestop stock price peak at in 2021?

What will the value of Gamestop stock be at market close on February 1st, 2021? (Or could extend to the 5th, though that might be too long given how things are evolving)

I'm really interested in questions regarding Russia and Ukraine. We're seeing a lot of media reports that the US intelligence community believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next couple of months is a live possibility.

Any interest? Should I take a crack at drafting a question or two?

Woah, is the ability to set a single question to include multiple time periods that close incrementally like this new? I don't think I've seen it before. That is really cool!

Given the recent fluctuations in homicide rates across the US (2020 rates were quite high), I think it would be interesting to have a few questions on that. Rates in 2021, 2021 - 2026 average, etc. I'm happy to take a crack at drafting questions if there's any interest.

Looking a the Community Probability Density and median value, I find the community's projections on this to be a little strange. I wonder if people are making estimates based on election results and Justice Ginsburg's health without understanding the patterns of Supreme Court vacancies, e.g. deaths v. resignations and the timing of resignations based on the Supreme Court calendar. Probability of death is hard to predict, because it's gradually increasing (as people age) but with a high degree of unknown variability. Justice Ginsburg has health issues, ...
I have similar concerns to some of the other commenters: >This may also resolve positively if Russia formally recognizes an independent state within the same region. This seems like it introduces some ambiguities. What if Russia recognizes a People's Republic of Kherson, gets beaten back so the territory is controlled by Ukraine, but never formally rescinds its recognition? That would seem to go against the spirit of the question, but would result in a positive resolution, correct? Maybe if they recognize an independent state, that state should hav...
@(AdamRen) Thanks for the reminder. To be honest I haven't been keeping my file particularly up to date, but this was a good reminder to dust it off a bit. First, a sanity check to try to peer through the fog of war. If you look at the ongoing Siege of Mariupol, official tallies are 2,500 civilians dead, but with estimates up to [20,000](https://web.archive.org/web/20220315173842/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/world/europe/mariupol-death-toll-ukraine.html) as of March 15, surely higher since then. The total is likely somewhere in between - Ukrainian...
Final prediction: 5%. A very significant drop from my initial forecast of 72% on February 22 with a post explaining my thinking at [75% on February 24th](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/#comment-82638). Mostly making a note for future reference. This was a tough one to model. Between factors on the ground in Kyiv, factors elsewhere in Ukraine, and the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, I've rarely seen such a significant change in approximately a month. I've moderately contrary to the community...

@ad42astra My guess: Russia has been amassing ships in the Black Sea, including amphibious assault ships. Odessa is the likely target if they're utilized, as it is a major trade route into Ukraine and the only target on the coast worth much since Russia already controls Crimea. Kyiv is less exposed.

I think the community's forecast is too low in both cases (I am 57% Kyiv, 60% Odessa) but some split is probably not too surprising.

Adding in one more account to the "it doesn't really make sense that this would have fewer than 100 soldiers involved, but the news sources don't give exact numbers" pile. In general my approach, given my limited time, has been to just read a [high level summary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022)) and then follow up on what sounds like promising leads. On February 25/26, Russians attacked a Ukrainian military base on Peremohy Avenue near the [Kyiv Zoo](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kiev+Zoo/@50.4688823,30.3951617,13z/data=!4m8!1m2!...