@Uncle Jeff Sounds like a good opportunity for some points then!

The Minnesota Star Tribune has published an estimate of $500 million in local damages. Source is just "owners and insurance experts" so take with a grain of salt, but it's one of a few holistic estimates that I've seen.

@(Aotho) I'm at 80%. Two points that seem relevant to me are: First, even if the article isn't published in its original form, it seems some what unlikely to me that they'd spike the story altogether, given the amount of work that's gone into it and the negative publicity they've received - the NYT increasingly seems comfortable making itself the story, e.g. the Cotton op-ed situation that spawned several articles internally. Second, the question just states "Any author's NYT-published article in any topic that mentions either him or his blog is eligib...
@(Uncle Jeff) So this is actually a really interesting question that may make this question hard to resolve if both races go to a runoff. The runoff election is [January 5, 2020](http://cbsnews.com/news/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-perdue-ossoff-leoffler-warnock-january/). It appears that in recent years the Majority Leader has been selected on [January 3, 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_leaders_of_the_United_States_Senate). Wikipedia says: >The Senate Majority Leader and Minority Leader are two United States senators and members of the pa...

FiveThirtyEight Senate Model is live

Republicans 42%, Democrats 58%

It looks like the community's prediction reached the low 40s in late Aug, so that's pretty impressive.

@panashe Just confirmed it myself. If you don't own Gamestop stock, it won't even show up when you search for the company. Incredible.

With the rapidly evolving Gamestop stock situation that closed one question after four days, I think it would be fun to have some more. Some suggestions:

What will the Gamestop stock price peak at in 2021?

What will the value of Gamestop stock be at market close on February 1st, 2021? (Or could extend to the 5th, though that might be too long given how things are evolving)

Given the recent fluctuations in homicide rates across the US (2020 rates were quite high), I think it would be interesting to have a few questions on that. Rates in 2021, 2021 - 2026 average, etc. I'm happy to take a crack at drafting questions if there's any interest.

Looking a the Community Probability Density and median value, I find the community's projections on this to be a little strange. I wonder if people are making estimates based on election results and Justice Ginsburg's health without understanding the patterns of Supreme Court vacancies, e.g. deaths v. resignations and the timing of resignations based on the Supreme Court calendar. Probability of death is hard to predict, because it's gradually increasing (as people age) but with a high degree of unknown variability. Justice Ginsburg has health issues, ...
With the increased focus on racial issues in the US, it would be interesting to forecast what areas will or will not see convergence in the future. Some ideas, which I'm happy to help flesh out: 1. What will the average Black American income in 2030/2040/2050 be, as a percentage of average White American income? (For instance, it was [61% in 2018](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/)) 2. What will the difference in bachelors degree attainment be between Black Americans and White Americans in 20...
[Latest Update from Scott:](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/09/11/update-on-my-situation/) >It’s been two and a half months since I deleted the blog, so I owe all of you an update on recent events. >I haven’t heard anything from the New York Times one way or the other. Since nothing has been published, I’d assume they dropped the article, except that they approached an acquaintance for another interview last month. Overall I’m confused. >But they definitely haven’t given me any explicit reassurance that they won’t reveal my private information. And no...

Out of curiosity, how many active Metaculus users are there?

@Jgalt Article title should have noted that he was retired and working security, not in uniform or active in service.

Having said that...what a tragedy. Seventy-seven years old, shot, dying on Facebook Live.

Will Joe Biden run for a second presidential term in 2024?

When will it be legal to fly on a domestic US commercial airline flight without wearing a mask?

@mishasamin The Supreme Court can only get involved in a situation like this if there's a case that gets appealed up to them. They don't get to just decide the winner, just resolve conflicts about how to interpret laws around counting rules, deadlines, etc. As far as I can tell the Trump campaign does not have any objections based in evidence that are likely to change the result in any state, much the less multiple states necessary.

For full disclosure, I put this at 1% yesterday.

@(davidmanheim) I think that's highly unlikely that damages are already that high. There seem to have been a number of buildings looted and destroyed, but most of them quite small. The Target is the largest. As a back-of-the-envelope calculation: According to Target's 2019 Annual Report, they have a retail square footage of 240,516,000 and 1,868 stores, for an average of 128,756 square feet (sf) per store. Eyeballing this particular Target on Google Maps, I think it's a fair bit smaller than that (maybe 80k - 100k sf), which isn't unexpected for an urba...
@(schopie) I'm an American who has this at 35% probability of positive resolution. I think the probability that it actually escaped from a lab is actually higher, but there's a good chance that even if that's true, we won't know before this question resolves (or perhaps ever). I'm not basing this on anything Trump has said, and very little on US government analysis. The key points for me are: 1. The proximity of China’s first and only Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) facility in Wuhan, which studies bat coronaviruses, less than a mile from the purported groun...
I've moved my estimate down to 50%. The fact that one of these criteria has to be met within 14 days really limits the likelihood of resolving this question positively, even though this is a once-in-a generation event. The initial chaos of the Floyd protests seem to have died down, and we're now seeing substantially fewer deaths and less property damage. Deaths: 11 total over 10 days = 1.1 per day. To get to 50 deaths in two weeks, we'd need to more than triple that to 3.5 per day. This is possible under some new event (DA drops all charges, an unarmed ...
This distribution is interesting to me because it's so significantly asymmetric. Right now it's at lower 25% -0.56, median 0.94, and upper 75% 2.5. As a back of the envelope calculation, that's a range of 2.76 from the 25% to the 75%, meaning that and 90% of the estimated range (2.5 / 2.76) is to the right of zero. But it's [hard to predict the direction of polling errors in advance](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/) and I think a reasonable prior is that a polling error is equally likely in either direction. Can anyone help...

@Sylvain The Twenty-Second Amendment just limits presidents to two terms, so if Trump loses in 2020, he has another term open and could theoretically run again, or even win. I would assign a low probability of Trump being renominated in 2024 if he loses in 2020, but it would be Constitutional.