So when are we collectively going to start scrutinising the resolutions of questions more on this platform before a substantial amount of forecasters participate in questions? It is unacceptable the amount of ambiguous resolutions that have been occurring, and in my opinion, still likely to occur, due to poorly written/thought out resolutions. It’s a waste of everyone’s time and effort and also erodes the integrity of Metaculus. These prediction questions tend to span long periods of 6-12 months yet we cannot spend a good chunk of time making sure ...

Can we remove this bias commentary from the question description to keep the question description as far from an opinion piece as possible, or at the very least reword it… > By fall, Bakhmut was described as an obsession for Russia and a "meat grinder" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was essentially a propaganda operation designed to provide Russian President Putin with a "victory" to offset mounting defeats, or even motivated by Prigozhin's per...

@(tryingToPredictFuture) Yes, he’s not to be trusted, and yes, he lies a lot, still, why would this imply there would be massive strikes (strikes meaning nuclear strikes) imminently? Seems as if the Kyiv strikes were a ‘tit-for-tat’ type response for the Kerch Bridge. This makes sense considering Putin’s statement closer to the start of the invasion stating that Ukrainian decision making centres will be targeted if Russian territory was targeted by Ukrainian forces. Basically: Kerch Bridge retaliation complete; now focus on critical areas on the fron...

Am I wrong in thinking all this talk of Twitter going down as a result of Musk’s takeover is just mass hysteria?

I’m sitting at 21% at the moment and struggling to find reasons why Twitter would go offline for such a long period of time.

Very tough resolution criteria, imo…

I think @EvanHarper is spot on in his decision to not resolve this question based on the [ISW report](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023). Not only does it *not* take a definitive stance on what actually happened during the so-called raid, it also includes statements from the Ukrainian government directly stating that Ukrainian forces were *not* involved: >Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Ukraine is observing and studying the situation but “**...

@(tryingToPredictFuture) > A year ago, I would've said the same about the perspective of Ukraine building a military force capable of defeating Russia. This has no relevance to shipbuilding capabilities of Ukraine. If we are taking the word "building" literally, then that is a very generous term to use. > BTW, they already have a small fleet of seaborne drones The seaborne drones are impressive, but they aren't really equivalent to anything you mentioned; they are far more simple in complexity. Furthermore, if I am not mistaken, the Ukrainians are fu...

@Trunton yeah I did see this whilst trawling through the Wikipedia list of US riots.

Are people really expecting something on that scale, if Trump is indicted though?

I think a nice resolution criteria would be the number similar to the arrests, deaths and injuries during the Jan 6th Captiol attack.

How about a revamp of the achievements? Firstly, generally speaking, most people have the same achievements so it makes it one of those features that no one really bothers to pay attention to when looking at others' profiles. Secondly, the achievement list is pretty small and it seems as if it could be expanded fairly substantially with a mix of competitive and fun achievements, e.g.: - Tournament first, second or third place achievement - Tournament $ winnings - Login streak - Co-author X amount of questions - Win X amount of points forecasting on a ...

Congrats.

@(tryingToPredictFuture) Ukrainian navy with nuclear-armed submarines? In less than ten years? Not a chance! You do open an interesting line of question, however, it's just not plausible in my opinion. Are Ukraine capable of manufacturing a nuclear weapon? Perhaps, but you completely miss out the fact that NATO/US would never allow Ukraine to manufacture, or somehow obtain nuclear weapons. If they were to do so, this would be incredibly reckless and would result in a major international crisis. Furthermore, if Ukraine were to start to obtain or man...

https://twitter.com/logka11/status/1621639081…

@EvanHarper

So we are dealing with a partial outage here, right?

as long as at least 10 million Twitter users are reportedly affected

I don’t think there’s enough evidence to satisfy this.

Or the majority of Twitter users in territories with a population totaling at least 100 million.

This appears to definitely not be the case.

Turkey's Erdogan signals Finland's NATO bid may be considered over Sweden

”We may deliver Finland a different message (on their NATO application) and Sweden would be shocked when they see our message. But Finland should not make the same mistake Sweden did,” Erdogan said in a televised speech aired on Sunday.

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/160…

On the predictions tab on each users profile page, it should include, or at leave give the option to include, the number of questions that have been resolved ambiguously that the user has participated in.

For example it should read:

20 predictions on 4 questions ( 2 resolved, 1 resolved ambiguously)

Or something similar to this.

Erdogan predictions look to be closed? @admins @moderators

On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com), causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time.

How’d we all survive it?!

@Jgalt @admins whats the reasoning behind the question being framed like this? This is far too specific imo.

@Neniu Oh, that’s my bad. I must have missed that on the New Years “Resolutions” post