Will Ukraine become a member of the European Union in 2022?
the DOB’s were all wrong, all being marked as 01-01-1900
The guy behind the US Election Project posted on Twitter last week that 01/01/1900 is set as DoB when moving to electronic systems if they cannot discern the correct DoB in manual records.
@underyx oh, I can answer my own question. If the only two possible resolutions are ambiguous or positive, the only reasonable prediction is 99%, however unlikely positive resolution is.
In this case, why not close the question retroactively, and wait and see if the resolution is ambiguous or positive by resolve date?
Seems like there are two quite narrow spikes in the community predictions, one around June 17th and one around August 29th. Any idea what the significance of these dates is?
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I get that this question is lifted from the reference directly, but I still find it confusing that a yes prediction means an answer of no.
Perhaps in lieu of a complete negation, which might be even more confusing if we still quote the same reference, some strategic rewording is possible, like "Will humanity be unable to compile a collection of medical interventions that […]"?
The questions sets resolution time as 11:00 GMT and at 19:05 GMT the site is still reporting 397 confirmed cases, so I think that should be our resolution number.
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@Tamay As someone who worked on Twitter botnet identification, I think the cost would be absolutely trivial to maintain around a few hundred accounts making 10 predictions daily for, say, 250 days.
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According to the NY Times, they finally started taking presidential-level precautions:
The White House has begun checking the temperatures of anyone in close contact with Mr. Trump or Mr. Pence. White House staff checked the temperatures of everyone arriving at the news conference.
@j.m. I, on the other hand, feel like it wouldn't be in the spirit of the question if 33% were closed on Monday, and 33% on Tuesday, making this resolve as a no.
@Sylvain why not wait until Nov 2nd in that case, to see if he gets a proper suspension by then?
Italy opening their borders to EU visitors with no restrictions on June 3rd: https://theprint.in/world/italy-to-open-its-b…
@PabloStafforini seems like we only assign an 8% probability to this scenario though. Is that an accurate prediction, or are people just too lazy to add a second component?
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@mishasamin almost the same here but -202 points after the update :(
Updating upwards as the combination of tax return revelations and a bad debate might do it.
How about the following:
Resolution will be retroactive to 1 day before the earlier of when:
either an official announcement is made about when the ban will be terminated
or a credible news publication reports an at most 15-day window of when the ban will be terminated, which turns out to be correct. As such, a report of 'end of July' would trigger retroactive resolution, while 'sometime in July' would not.
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@moderators this resolves as >Dec 31, 2020 with no progress in sight.
@ninjaedit Or where their government is overthrown over failure to contain the outbreak?