@steven0461 So in other words it will absolutely be past 2030 in the best possible case.

@mainlinevkk @James-B

From fine print:

For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear weapon" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called "dirty bombs").

@victor This is a question where a good forecast is more important than some marginal points.

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@Tamay Since it's written by the minority oversight staff maybe that means they are all Republican:


Which would tend to diminish the meaningfulness of this report since lab leak is politically very popular with the Rs.

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@Jgalt Probably because not only is it well below the 1% floor but correspondingly appears to invoke some misdirected political hysteria. That's just a guess.

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Why is this so low? Biden is by far the best bet for the Ds and he should last for a potential second term. I would be higher if not for the community prediction.

This comment was originally posted on Joe Biden

@hyperflare It looks like he's suggesting the question is silly, not over the line.

Community is probably too high on this. 2023 is soon, Ukraine still steadfastly denying, Poland is the last country to want to rock the boat over their war, and likely nobody else in NATO is going to force them to admit it. This would seem to be an opportunity for all involved to let time bury the incident.

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Probably resolves ambiguous because nobody bothers to carry out the specific test, but if they do it seems 90% likely that by 2035-2040 a state of the art AI can easily beat some grad students with IQs of 145 at tests designed to advantage them.

@Parsnip Trump by all appearances wants and intends to run. He's holding rallies and hasn't officially announced his candidacy yet for what appear to be typical-Trump financial reasons.

Base rates are not so useful on this because there is good reason to believe that Trump will run and can win.

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

Considering the community forecast of 27% on whether Trump will win in '24 the sum of these two forecasts is confusing.

Right now it is strongly predictable that the race will be between Trump and Biden. 47% for unknown-unknowns seems like too much. Why is the community apparently putting so much weight into someone other than Biden or Trump for '24?

This comment was originally posted on Joe Biden

A successful coup or regime change against an intelligent person with a background in the security services and over 20 years to effectively consolidate power using a world-class playbook seems very unlikely. Community is too high.

Can't get the basic rocket to low earth orbit in a timely fashion and the rest of the (giant and complicated) plan doesn't clearly exist.

It looks like the drop in community prediction from 26% to 16% in the past few days has coincided with a large number of new forecasters predicting on this question. Where did you come from? Why are you all so confident Trump won't be elected in 2024?

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

The debate itself is setup in such a way that it would be extremely unlikely for a challenger to win: >Both sides will first agree on two judges with strong analytical skills, relevant experience, no previous endorsement of either side, no relevant political biases, and who declare they will examine both hypotheses equally. As specified the judge criteria are going to be next to impossible to fulfill, which is why right afterward they suggest that the rules can be bent in certain cases. Fair enough. >The debate will be based on all currently availabl...

@Dumbledores_Army Too many of the AI forecasts are from LW types. People more alarmed about AI and the presumed quick arrival of AGI are probably more likely to find the AGI questions and predict.

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Can anyone explain the MASSIVE gulf in probability between this and the forecasts on here for AGI (or really, just better AI) and BCIs? Are people not realizing the connection or is there some other reason?

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@randallburns North Korea has survived shortages for decades. Sending a large number of troops to die for a cause North Koreans may not care about seems like one of the riskiest things Kim could do at any price.

I give odds in favor.

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There are a few reasons to think we won't discover any alien technosignatures by 2050: 1) Search effort severely resource constrained 2) Previous searches turn up zilch 3) Even if we find a technosignature, the odds of it being unambiguous enough to meet res criteria are not clear. Maybe we've already found one. 4) To paraphrase Eliezer Yudkowsky, the minimum IQ required to destroy the world drops by a point every 18 months. This is an ongoing issue for humanity, and advanced civilizations may tend toward annihilation or primitivization right around ...