@cmeinel The question isn't whether more than 50% of Mariupol's raions will be under Russian control at any point before June 1st, but rather whether they will be under Russian control on June 1st. This question cannot resolve before June 1st because Ukraine can always recapture territory, as we have seen happen in other parts of the country.
Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other one Finnish - are reporting that the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.
As of right now the subreddit has 21,982 subscribers: Screenshot
@ugandamaximum I agree it is fairly unlikely, but still good to know how the question would resolve in that case.
@FJehn The deaths in Mariupol are a combination of Russian military, Ukrainian military, and civilian deaths, so you're double counting those to reach the 50k number.