The Wuhan Coronavirus is looking like a pandemic event that could be serious enough to threaten this outcome.
If @datscilly doesn't get bored and lazy, probably some time in the next year. There are a few factors here. The question volume is up and I haven't been keeping up. Many questions now are range questions, which are harder to just 'wing it' for a good prediction.
Also my usual access pattern is on my phone when I have a spare moment, and the UI is broken to near unusability for range questions from the android browser. If @max.wainwright would fix the UI for android use it might give me some extra months.
@admins This is a request for improvement of the "current points" and "total available points" for questions like this. The current displayed points are (if I understand right) for if the resolution date stayed at the end of the period even though the event date is graphed on the x-axis. But the resolution date will be set to the date when the event occurs, so the points on the graph are not correct for what will happen. If the points calculation used the resolution date as the x-axis date then it would be correct (if I understand right).
Okay I am back off a bit, to 98% here. The 2019 nCov epidemic still threatens to become a global pandemic, but evidence is growing that the fatality rate is comparatively low.
A coronavirus case was confirmed at my workplace today.
My contribution to the graph: exaggerated weekend bumps due to lower admission rate on Saturday and Sunday.
I would prefer a slightly less specific resolution, something like "uses either the word 'communist' or 'commie' in reference to Bernie Sanders."
It should also include retweets and tweeted videos that contain the words "communist" or "commie".
The problem with asking for specific phrasing is what if you miss the one that is used. As weitten, for instance, Trump could adopt "Commie Bernie" as his nickname for Sanders and use it repeatedly, but as long as the last name was omitted it would resolve negative.
The European Commission's model has Nigeria's population at 379 million in 2050 for their middle scenario . My feeling is their model, which takes into account the effects of education driving the demographic transition, is a bit better than the UN's simpler model.
 Lutz et al 2018 : https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/lu…
Can we please fix the UI for continuous question prediction to work on android mobile? Currently it is almost impossible to get the sliders to slide. Very frustrating!
As this question examines potentially large numbers of cases, I would suggest to be clear that it should resolve based on scientific estimate of actual number of infections, rather than laboratory-confirmed counts. If the disease becomes so widespread only a small fraction of cases will be confirmed.
A new academic preprint puts the all-infection fatality rate at about 1%, though the 95-percentile range is still 0.5% - 4%.
— edited by traviswfisher