“We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30.” — US Ambassador to OSCE Michael Carpenter

The Speaker of Russian Duma says Ukraine is provoking the start of a big war.

Says, Russia doesn’t want war “but if there is a threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation and compatriots living in the DPR and LPR, then Russia will stand up for them”

Ragıp Soylu

@(jowo) > both institutions would have to favor same-sex marriage Or the Sejm would have to have 3/5 MPs to reject the president's veto. Duda will be president until 2025. It is difficult to forecast who will be president in 2025-2030, and it is difficult to forecast the result of parliamentary elections next year. EVEN if the opposition takes power, it will only be able to establish partnerships by compromise - or perhaps not - and only after 2025, unless the conservative is president. FYI: a declared gay and a supporter of marital equality (lefti...

I wish I had seen this question earlier. My predict: 1%. Russians are not even able to circle the city. For five weeks, the city almost inexplicably defended itself despite being on the route to Kyiv. Currently, the Ukrainians are making great progress east of Kiev. The road from Kiev to Chernihiv is being secured. I don't see a chance for the Russians.

Here's what the Kyiv-based Center for Defense Strategies thinks are the most probable scenarios for further Russian aggression: * A large-scale offensive to occupy all of Ukraine or its significant part: unlikely, since the accumulated force is insufficient for that. If Russia doesn’t prepare hundreds of thousands of troops with strategic reserves and mobilized soldiers, “such scenarios are unlikely in the foreseeable future,” the experts believe. Moreover, the operation would result in international isolation and more sanctions against Russia. * Local...
Russia moving some of its 'Wagner mercenaries' (units under the 'deniable' control of Russian military intelligence or GRU) from the Central African Republic to Ukraine. The incitement against Ukraine is rising rather sharply on Russia's state television channels. ~[Kyle Orton](https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/1494185928461623298) & [Philip Obaji](https://twitter.com/PhilipObaji/status/1493984585989902342) Based on conversations w/multiple Ukrainian soldiers, they were on edge last night & are now taking concrete actions to prepare for a Russian ...

Kuleba: I officially requested UNSC member states to immediately hold consultations under article 6 of the Budapest memorandum to discuss urgent actions aimed at de-escalation, as well as practical steps to guarantee the security of Ukraine.

Lavrov: Offering the West 2-3 day ultimatum is a matter of taste but won’t change anything

Since March 27 I'm at 5%. Literally nothing changed since then.

Von der Leyen: We are also ready in case Russia uses energy as a weapon.   Several countries are ready to step up their exports of LNG to the EU.   We already reinforced our pan-European pipeline and electricity interconnector network.   This will also be the backbone of green hydrogen supply.


Russia 'likely' to launch 'limited' military attack against Ukraine, says Estonian intelligence The attack would include missile bombardment and the occupation of „key terrain” in Ukraine, said Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. Right now, our assessment is that they would avoid cities with large populations, as it takes a lot of troops to control those areas Estonian intelligence is aware of approximately 10 battle groups of Russian troops moving toward the Ukrainian border, where 100 Russian military battle g...
  • Ukrainians' two-sided counterattack on the spine of the Russian attack on Fastiv
  • still unconquered Irpin
  • the 'immortal' Czernichów

I maintain a stable forecast of 45%