“We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30.” — US Ambassador to OSCE Michael Carpenter
The Speaker of Russian Duma says Ukraine is provoking the start of a big war.
Says, Russia doesn’t want war “but if there is a threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation and compatriots living in the DPR and LPR, then Russia will stand up for them”
I wish I had seen this question earlier. My predict: 1%. Russians are not even able to circle the city. For five weeks, the city almost inexplicably defended itself despite being on the route to Kyiv. Currently, the Ukrainians are making great progress east of Kiev. The road from Kiev to Chernihiv is being secured. I don't see a chance for the Russians.
Kuleba: I officially requested UNSC member states to immediately hold consultations under article 6 of the Budapest memorandum to discuss urgent actions aimed at de-escalation, as well as practical steps to guarantee the security of Ukraine.
Lavrov: Offering the West 2-3 day ultimatum is a matter of taste but won’t change anything
Since March 27 I'm at 5%. Literally nothing changed since then.
Von der Leyen: We are also ready in case Russia uses energy as a weapon. Several countries are ready to step up their exports of LNG to the EU. We already reinforced our pan-European pipeline and electricity interconnector network. This will also be the backbone of green hydrogen supply.
I maintain a stable forecast of 45%