@AnthonyQuestions should just resolve as originally planned. Otherwise, people could always change the resolution criteria later.

@nathanbraun

You are confusing two locations:

1: Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention, which is 300m from the market. 2: Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the BSL-4 lab that you are talking about, is 12 km away.

Furthermore, the analysis linked presupposes that the likelihood for detection is equally likely across China when it's likely that infections are more likely to be detected by those who have expertise with infectious disease.

I read the question as asking for the FINAL result of the most effective arm of the trial. Considering 76% was released after 79%, it should be the more final figure.

There is only 1 US health agency in the question. I have a hard time picturing other countries making this claim in the absence of overwhelming evidence, which we're not likely to get.

What if a US government body says a lab leak is

"possible"

"probable"

"likely"

How does the question resolve in each of the above cases.

— edited by stupidme

The question has 25,000 as a cut off point. I'm curious, hypothetically speaking, if the resolution date were 01/01/2021, what number of people would be considered be in captivity? Is it 1 million or 2 million?

@wobblybobby You are confusing two locations:

1: Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention, which is 300m from the market. 2: Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the BSL-4 lab that you are talking about, is 12 km away.

@rcloud This question is not asking if the virus was lab leaked, only if a part of the US government will deem it likely.

Very close race to the finish. Very likely tied gold medal finish (USA breaking tie with silver). I would say USA wins with 60% probability. sports to watch: China: women c-2 500m men's 10-m diving women's 69kg boxing women's 61kg+ karate women's 50kg wrestling women's 75kg boxing USA: women's golf men's basketball women's basketball women's polo men's baseball men's 97kg wrestling women's 4x400 men's 4x400 women's volleyball men's 63kg boxing men'x 91kg+ boxing Both country likely to get 39 gold (China +3, USA +8) *— edited by stu...

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/08/wo…

"A German intelligence report casts doubts on U.S. allegations that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory and says the accusations are an attempt to divert attention from U.S. failure to rein in the disease, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Friday."

@cd 10,000 gallons of water is 38 cubic meter of water, which is like a swimming pool of water.

What if it burns up in the atmosphere? Ambiguous or negative?

Might want to define what a collapse is. What if there's a leak. How big would it need to be to be a "collapse".

PRC Constitution first line:

"Article 1 The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants."

In the question's current formulation, there's a very high chance of resolving ambiguously. Might wanna change it to include potential successor Chinese states to the PRC.

— edited by stupidme