Carbon Brief is now giving 4%.
(Yes, this means PredictIt is mispriced. I don't know if that's a big deal after fees, but I guess if you know people who are on PredictIt and allocate money effective-altruistically, please consider letting them know.)
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Scott is now "cautiously optimistic that the Times has changed their mind"
It would be interesting to see a question of the form "will one of the following ten improbable events, each of which is too improbable to get its own question, happen this year?"
@steven0461 Also more about gene editing and embryo selection.
98+% chance to be in the top 2 according to Berkeley Earth. 2019 is currently #2.
@ChrisCanal It wouldn't have counted because you joined after the question opened
The question text says:
This question will close retroactively to the resolution time.
The resolution time is still a few days away. So how come it's currently closed?
If there's a human-level AI by 2075, it will probably have existed for decades, which means an intelligence explosion will probably have happened, which means a huge amount of optimization will have been poured into getting more intelligence out of less computing power. Current estimates here seem too high by a lot.
I would love to see questions about Drexler-style nanotechnology / molecular manufacturing / atomically precise manufacturing. I don't personally know enough to formulate such questions.
@olliebase22 It's hard for me to imagine an AI system capable of killing >10% of the population that isn't also capable of self-improving and self-replicating to the point of having a decisive strategic advantage over all human actors. (Not impossible, though. For example, maybe it doesn't take a superintelligence to hack nuclear weapons systems.)
I think it has to be the all-things-considered view, or else Metaculus becomes one of those games that ethically require their players to play badly in such a way that they constantly have to think about exactly how badly they're ethically required to play. I'd be in favor of eliciting inside view predictions separately.
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@Jgalt "When will the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announce we've reached 1am?"
Metaculus currently assigns a 37% probability that under 2% of the world population will be infected, so I think that's still/again not consistent with the 93% estimate here.
Sea ice decline slowed down a lot in the last few weeks and it now looks virtually certain that this will resolve negatively.