@Jgalt Good on Trump. Trump is right for once!

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

@EvanHarper "Predicting what comes next is a fool’s errand" is a funny sentence to post on Metaculus.

@Eltanin Anyone has a right to make predictions, the point of Metaculus is that there are incentives that reward correct ones.

I think if such annexation does happen, it will likely happen without a war. A war over Taiwan would drag in Japan and ultimately the United States. It would be a China-US war. It seems likely that China will try to intimidate Taiwan into submission without war. Of course geopolitical circumstances could change.

@Jgalt We need to ask Trump to the list of Metaculus public figures.

@deKlik I think that’s unlikely. If China did that it would whet the appetite for a full reunification and the government would face a lot of domestic pressure to do so.

I'm at 5%, the 2% is way too low, you can imagine a huge offensive in the fall.

@(QI92756340QI) from the description: “ Unlike Christianity, Judaism supports stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician Shimon Glick wrote that it is ethical to raise IQ using genetic engineering, and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are avid consumers of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that Dor Yeshorim does, and Israel has an embryo selection company started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four.” [This...

@johnnycaffeine I put 1% but that website is not such a good site for that purpose. It's a paleoconservative site, and so not exactly representative of the mainstream conservative movement in the US (though becoming more representative nowadays, in the MAGA era).

@(casens) To clarify, I agree global warming is a problem, and that seemingly small changes in average temperature can do a lot of things. I'm all for nuclear power (both fusion and fission), solar, wind, hydro, carbon tax, and so on. Of course, there are uncertainty bars around everything because the climate is complicated. Anyway, I agree the average case is also pretty bad. 3C of warming will create big issues. For instance Beijing isn't far from the desert and might become a desert. Still people have told me that climate change an apocalyptic l...

If this resolves as no, what is the most likely explanation? That China intervened and did a peace deal? I think at this point it's hard to justify going below 90%.

@Eltanin Look I definitely am rooting for the Ukrainians and have personally sent them humanitarian aid (I'm in the US), but these kinds of comments serve no purpose. I understand it's hard to make dispassionate forecasts when you're being invaded like this, but this is not good for the website.

Very good question! We should have earthquake questions also. The US West Coast is quite vulnerable. California, and also Portland. Hurricane questions as well. Metaculus needs more natural disaster questions.

UNGA 377 is still a General Assembly resolution so it is not binding and Russia can just ignore it. Therefore, this would just be a symbolic act. It seems fairly likely. There is no real incentive not to do it, as it does not mean war with Russia.

There should be one about if AOC ever becomes President or if she ever wins a major party nomination in her lifetime.

@Grogu-Daveinsea Of course, if China does make a move on Taiwan, it will be very likely be a blockade rather than an invasion.

@(JasonMaguire) I think it's fine for someone to mention a political opinion in a comment, as we all do that from time to time, especially one like "interracial marriage should be legal". I think interracial marriage should remain legal. Yes I agree that interracial marriage can have some bad social effects. For instance, because some pairings are more common than others (white guy and Asian girl), some demographics end up being more likely to die alone (Asian guys) which is bad obviously. But overall of course it should be legal, if a guy and a girl...
@(psyberion) What happens if Collatz is false but the smallest counterexample gives a loop whose size is say a googol, which is greater than the number of atoms in the universe? What if it's even bigger, so that if you had every particle in the observable universe do 1 computation every Plank time since the Big Bang you wouldn't get there? I think that number *might* be above googol but I think it's below \(10^{200}\). What if also every number up to \(10^{200}\) eventually goes to 1, as is every number that we can physically write down in the univers...

Perhaps we should have a question on the University of Austin?