@Jgalt Good on Trump. Trump is right for once!
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
@EvanHarper "Predicting what comes next is a fool’s errand" is a funny sentence to post on Metaculus.
@Eltanin Anyone has a right to make predictions, the point of Metaculus is that there are incentives that reward correct ones.
I think if such annexation does happen, it will likely happen without a war. A war over Taiwan would drag in Japan and ultimately the United States. It would be a China-US war. It seems likely that China will try to intimidate Taiwan into submission without war. Of course geopolitical circumstances could change.
@Jgalt We need to ask Trump to the list of Metaculus public figures.
@deKlik I think that’s unlikely. If China did that it would whet the appetite for a full reunification and the government would face a lot of domestic pressure to do so.
I'm at 5%, the 2% is way too low, you can imagine a huge offensive in the fall.
@johnnycaffeine I put 1% but that website is not such a good site for that purpose. It's a paleoconservative site, and so not exactly representative of the mainstream conservative movement in the US (though becoming more representative nowadays, in the MAGA era).
If this resolves as no, what is the most likely explanation? That China intervened and did a peace deal? I think at this point it's hard to justify going below 90%.
@Eltanin Look I definitely am rooting for the Ukrainians and have personally sent them humanitarian aid (I'm in the US), but these kinds of comments serve no purpose. I understand it's hard to make dispassionate forecasts when you're being invaded like this, but this is not good for the website.
Very good question! We should have earthquake questions also. The US West Coast is quite vulnerable. California, and also Portland. Hurricane questions as well. Metaculus needs more natural disaster questions.
UNGA 377 is still a General Assembly resolution so it is not binding and Russia can just ignore it. Therefore, this would just be a symbolic act. It seems fairly likely. There is no real incentive not to do it, as it does not mean war with Russia.
There should be one about if AOC ever becomes President or if she ever wins a major party nomination in her lifetime.
@Grogu-Daveinsea Of course, if China does make a move on Taiwan, it will be very likely be a blockade rather than an invasion.