@Joker One issue here is that a siege that succeeded after 2 weeks is not going to be a famous siege. There will be selection bias. That being said you convinced me to go down to 30%.

Extraneous point: I also don't like the thumbnail about "30-year peace", because of the Balkans. Inevitably you're going to have some pro-Putin people saying "what about NATO bombing Belgrade". Anyway Russia invading Ukraine is a naked aggression, while the Balkans was a hot mess, I'm not suggesting moral equivalence. Still, I don't like this 30-year peace in the description, it's dishonest and the pro-Putin people (I am definitely not pro-Putin) who say this have a point. I also just got an email from Metaculus expressing solidarity with Ukraine. I...

@Jgalt I mean, I hope he is right, but he has a strong incentive to say this.

@ElonMusk Israel will deter them and hack them, with the support of the US and the gulf countries (which is good), but a nuclear first strike is a bad idea.

It would certainly be bad if Iran got a nuke but not the end of the world, ultimately the US, Israel, GCC would live with it the same way the US, SK, Japan live with a North Korean bomb.

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@johnnycaffeine Not worthless domestically inside Russia, not hyperinflation. And it's not inflating by more than a factor of 2. I agree he'll face pressure but not what you're saying.

I like this question a lot. However, the question would resolve positively in the event of a false flag, whether the false flag was by the Ukrainian government or by some rogue faction within Ukraine. If there is a chemical attack we can expect some very ugly disputes about who did it, and we can expect Russia to accuse Ukraine of doing a false flag attack, even if that false flag is completely baseless. I don't know if we can use Metaculus to resolve these disputes. Perhaps we should find some statements about the chemical attack that would be more ...
@(JasonMaguire) I don’t like this argument. Just because people abuse a word “racist” to refer to someone who just looks at the data and believes HBD is true but has no animus against black people doesn’t mean the word has no meaning. In the 50s the word “communist” was overused by McCarthy but that doesn’t mean it’s meaningless. Someone being accused by the left of racism does give you some Bayesian evidence about their beliefs. It tells you that they are more likely to be centrist or right-wing. Yes the left makes many false accusations of racism ...

I’m at 50%. It’s now some semantic issues, arguing about past evidence, and what a high degree of confidence is. It probably happened but I don’t know if we can ascertain anything with a “high degree of confidence”. I advocate an ambiguous resolution.

Can we have questions about nuclear power in Europe?

By the way, I would like to give a giant "fuck you" to every European politician who shut down their nuclear power plants in favor of Russian fossil fuels. Fuck you so much.

Yikes, this is a really high number. We should have more questions, if there is an attack, what happens to US economy, Chinese economy, does either US or China do conscription, and so on.

I’m uncomfortable with how high these numbers are. Why is the scale up to 30M? Millions of people in 6 years? We should have a log scale, right?

@jonasb Khamenei is 83 so if it's no it's likely just a death market. I don't think 2023 is in the cards, the Iranian regime has had huge protests in the past (Green Movement in 2009) and has medium-size protests all of the time (hijabs, the government shooting down the plane, food prices, etc). I certainly hope you're right and the IRI is gone soon but realistically it will be around for quite some time, on the order of decades.

If we cannot ascertain whether this happened, then this resolves as ambiguous, right? This question is basically asking about a past event...

As an IMO gold medalist I will say that the real big question for me is how many geometry problems, functional equations, and inequalities are on IMO. An AI could solve these problems easily. If we were talking about AI getting silver I'd be much more bullish. You need 4 problems solvable by AI for a gold at least.

Direct land war in Europe between NATO and Russia? In the next year and a half? There is some unlikely nightmare WWIII scenario where China invades Taiwan and Russia invades Latvia at the same time, but even conditional such a scenario they'd likely wait until an election year like 2024.

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@blednotik Disagree that China is less concerned about “ethics” than other places. New Hampshire wouldn’t throw He in jail.

@blindhiker There’s a good chance both sides lose…

@ugandamaximum I bet that the Metaculus prediction is way lower than the community prediction, there is a popular nitwit meme that China is super based on genetic engineering but it's not really true, again see the He Jiankui affair.

@Jgalt Good on Trump. Trump is right for once!

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