It would be wild if Scott Alexander used tachyons to unlock the Metaculus prediction for this one and is somehow incorporating that into his decision-making.

Fun fact, this Metaculus question is on the front page of DuckDuckGo and (for me) Google when searching "spacex mars by 2030"

Invite people to predict on your private questions, on a per-question basis.

This would be fantastic. I'd love to do quick prediction competitions with friends.

The legend. I was introduced to Metaculus through a link to a @traviswfisher comment about the pandemic.

> I predicted that debates will hurt Biden and I have predicted that this will end up in court-all true so far. We haven't yet seen this go to court. And I can't find many sources claiming that the debates hurt Biden. > The democrats are arrogant... > Democrats believes that people on the right are somewhat less intelligent and oh boy are they wrong. And if they believe that calling Trump supporters low-class and uneducated is a good strategy going forward then there is no hope for them... > So critical thinking skills will be important in the future....
I'd predict lower than 1% if possible. 2100 is within the lifespan of humans living today. By what mechanism would every single human be killed before 2100? Here are a few scenarios I'm considering. Note that I'm not considering per-century risk of each of these things, but rather specifically the chance that one kills us before 2100. - Super-intelligent AI. Why would it expend the enormous resources required to kill every human, including humans in the middle of nowhere that don't know that AI exists? Even if some AI wanted to kill every human, I dou...

I must admit, as much as I dislike KBCs, it's really fun to read comments on questions like these. I enjoy the humor and break from seriousness.

I wrote that comment on 25 June 2020. I want this feature, badly. On the survey, I indicated that I would pay for it.

I'm gonna predict early with the hope that this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. May fate have mercy on my precious points

— edited by silly

Hmm, if silence means either doxxing or no article at all, shouldn't we be adjusting our estimates upwards? Because the latter leads to the question resolving ambiguously, not negatively.

It looks like I'll cross the 50% line some time this evening, so I might as well do it now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comme…

Given how much background and overview this provides on SSC and the fact it came from the New Yorker, I suspect it is now very unlikely the NYT will publish their original article due to the tremendous overlap it would have with the this piece.

I'm not sure what to think. I personally plan to keep my prediction the same. I think the publication of the New Yorker article should move my prediction, but I'm not sure in which direction.

whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

Ugh. As a side note, I very much dislike the practice of mentally rounding percentages to 0% or 100% then judging them as "right" or "wrong," rather than using a calibration chart.

I assume everyone here already understands this concept better than I. SSC wrote a good article on it (which introduced me to Metaculus). Sadly, I'm having trouble finding the article as search engines slowly purge their cached versions of the now-deleted web pages.

@Jgalt Thank you for sharing your Twitter feed

For future questions like this, I think it would be interesting to predict the number of arrests, in addition to predicting relative to a binary threshold. I wonder what the community median would look like and how much weight it would assign to various severity scenarios

The current community median for this question (2%) is higher than the predicted risk of a US-Iran war and the predicted chance that Trump remains president:

[HN] The TikTok app is no longer permitted on mobile devices that access Amazon email

"Due to security risks, the TikTok app is no longer permitted on mobile devices that access Amazon email. If you have TikTok on your device, you must remove it by 10-Jul to retain mobile access to Amazon email."

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23875758

The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

I did not increase my personal prediction as a result of this source, but I thought I'd share anyway.

— edited by silly