It would be wild if Scott Alexander used tachyons to unlock the Metaculus prediction for this one and is somehow incorporating that into his decision-making.
Fun fact, this Metaculus question is on the front page of DuckDuckGo and (for me) Google when searching "spacex mars by 2030"
Invite people to predict on your private questions, on a per-question basis.
This would be fantastic. I'd love to do quick prediction competitions with friends.
The legend. I was introduced to Metaculus through a link to a @traviswfisher comment about the pandemic.
When will SlateStarCodex be restored?
I must admit, as much as I dislike KBCs, it's really fun to read comments on questions like these. I enjoy the humor and break from seriousness.
I wrote that comment on 25 June 2020. I want this feature, badly. On the survey, I indicated that I would pay for it.
I'm gonna predict early with the hope that this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. May fate have mercy on my precious points
— edited by silly
In case not everyone knows, SSC is now back up
Hmm, if silence means either doxxing or no article at all, shouldn't we be adjusting our estimates upwards? Because the latter leads to the question resolving ambiguously, not negatively.
It looks like I'll cross the 50% line some time this evening, so I might as well do it now.
I'm sacrificing points in the name of chaos :-)
I'd like to see a "discrete continuous range" question type for questions where the answer is an integer. That way, instead of seeing a bunch of spikes at each whole number value, the curve is turned into discrete histogram-like chart.
Given how much background and overview this provides on SSC and the fact it came from the New Yorker, I suspect it is now very unlikely the NYT will publish their original article due to the tremendous overlap it would have with the this piece.
I'm not sure what to think. I personally plan to keep my prediction the same. I think the publication of the New Yorker article should move my prediction, but I'm not sure in which direction.
whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
Ugh. As a side note, I very much dislike the practice of mentally rounding percentages to 0% or 100% then judging them as "right" or "wrong," rather than using a calibration chart.
I assume everyone here already understands this concept better than I. SSC wrote a good article on it (which introduced me to Metaculus). Sadly, I'm having trouble finding the article as search engines slowly purge their cached versions of the now-deleted web pages.
@Jgalt Thank you for sharing your Twitter feed
For future questions like this, I think it would be interesting to predict the number of arrests, in addition to predicting relative to a binary threshold. I wonder what the community median would look like and how much weight it would assign to various severity scenarios
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