GISS says 2020 was hotter. "Effectively tied" does not mean the same thing as tied.
I disagree. If "within the margin of error of the analysis" is not a tie, then what would be? This is them saying that they literally can't tell by their analysis which year was hotter.
The Fivethirtyeight forecast is up now.
White wins more at higher levels of human play, and also now when AI plays with each other.
No. White wins more than black at high levels of play, but the most common result is a draw. This is even more pronounced with computer-vs-computer games.
If we accept going after the limit here, it should result in White winning always.
Top level play, even among computers, is not perfect play, so I don't think this is a completely valid line of reasoning. But if anything, it should count towards the game being a draw for the above reason.
I think it is a tad bit confusing that the title here is the complement of the resolution criteria.
Except for point 7, I'm pretty sure this can easily be achieved by a program that is not "intelligent" at all. For example, tracking the community prediction with a calibration-curve correction should do the trick. Even tracking the community prediction with a small random fudge will have a reasonable chance of success.
Half of GDP!? I'm not sure that's even possible. Only slightly above 1% to hedge against the chance that I seriously misunderstood the question.
Tunnel digging is not exactly a new technology, and the Boring Company aren't really adding anything revolutionary to it. Why then should one believe that they can magically be several times more efficient than anyone else?
Routine poisson calculation based on the data in the description. About 0.216 qualifying events per 8 month period, that's exp(-0.216)=0.806 chance of no qualifying event.
I'm putting 99% here, even though I don't actually believe white wins. The game is probably objectively a draw from the starting position - actually I'd say I believe that with >99% certainty. However, it would be much easier to (weakly) solve the game if there was a winning strategy; you can reduce the search space by up to a square root. Chess will almost certainly not be solved before 2080 - or probably ever - but if it is, it would almost certainly be a forced win. Black having a winning strategy is not even worth considering.
Humans seem to be reasonably close to solving at least one of the problems (Navier-Stokes regularity only needs one or two more ideas to be resolved in the negative), whereas AIs are currently notoriously bad at even very simple reasoning. I think we have an edge here.
There's at least some indication that the number of present cases is much larger than the number of confirmed cases, maybe as much as 10x (or more?), due to most people not getting very sick (ie. not sick enough to see a doctor and get tested). That would also mean a 10x lower CFR.
— edited by sbares
@Jgalt I'd hardly say 25% is low. Heck, I was at 15%, and I still don't think that was a wrong judgement.
@zxi Yes. This is yet another example of a mismatch between question title and criteria. The title is "Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?", but the criteria are more like "Will the US-China trade war be further escalated between August 2nd and November 2nd, 2020?"
Disclaimer: I have nothing to gain or lose by the resolution of this question.
@Jgalt That scenario is even less likely. Real currencies with real, non-speculative valuations don't see sudden order-of-magnitude jumps in value like that, especially not the USD.
This concept fails the smell test for me. It's probably not a coincidence that this idea has not been implemented in any useful way for several decades. But since the resolution criteria only requires someone to throw money after it - not that they actually get anything for their money - there is still a significant chance of positive resolution.
I think a large underestimation is more likely than a large overestimation, but a median of zero is probably a sensible guess, so I tried to create a distribution like that with quartiles -3, 0, 2 and a long tail to the left.