@casens Pouring myself a drink.
Recent analysis from Michael Kofman of CNA:
Russian chemical weapon use is "unlikely" because:
1) Chemical weapons are not particularly useful for current Russian strategy of blockading and bypassing cities
2) Russia has far more conventional weaponry it could use to level cities if it wanted to
3) Using chemical weapons would build a strong case for NATO intervention
See WOTR interview: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/a-new-phase…
Based on the discussion below (re: $15 upper limit on payment), my understanding is that a successful rollout of the $8/month plan would not result in a positive resolution.
Yale Law School Prof. Amy Kapczynski: "If you work inside the Court, you know that the most concrete impact of the leak is to lock in this opinion essentially as is. Any edits at this point reveal jockeying between Justices, undermine the majority, and Court itself. Embarrassing to the majority."
In case anyone misses that this is net support (i.e., % supporting - % opposing), the percentages expressing support for interracial marriage are as follows:
For additional context see: https://morningconsult.com/2022/07/25/survey-…
— edited by satisficer
@Joker What source are you looking at for casualties in Tigray?
Some points from a recent Twitter thread by Dimitri Alperovitch, citing Michael Kofman of CNA:
Putin doesn’t need to continue major offensives to declare a victory he can sell to domestic audience. Declaring full mobilization is very fraught politically for Putin. As @KofmanMichael pointed out on our last podcast, declaring mobilization also means enlarging current limited war aims and risking suffering a devastating loss he wouldn’t be able to explain away.
REUTERS: U.S. President Joe Biden told G7 and NATO partners that a missile blast in eastern Poland was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile, a NATO source told Reuters on Wednesday.
RIA Novosti: Deputy of the 8th State Duma proposing a 10 year ban on Youtube
"Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's goal is for Sweden to join NATO in June this year, sources tell SvD. The information comes in parallel with Finland today presenting its new security policy analysis and the Swedish Social Democrats drawing up the plan to deal with the issue internally." [Google Translate]