@casens Pouring myself a drink.

Recent analysis from Michael Kofman of CNA:

Russian chemical weapon use is "unlikely" because:

1) Chemical weapons are not particularly useful for current Russian strategy of blockading and bypassing cities

2) Russia has far more conventional weaponry it could use to level cities if it wanted to

3) Using chemical weapons would build a strong case for NATO intervention

See WOTR interview: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/a-new-phase…

@Gaia

Based on the discussion below (re: $15 upper limit on payment), my understanding is that a successful rollout of the $8/month plan would not result in a positive resolution.

[Biden tells G7 allies the US will support joint F-16 training effort for Ukrainians](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/politics/biden-g7-f-16-ukraine/index.html) > President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth generation aircraft, including F-16s, a senior administration official tells CNN. > CNN reported on Thursday that the Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to...

Washington Post [Archive Link]: [Beijing chafes at Moscow’s requests for support, Chinese officials say](https://archive.ph/iGkVs): >Russian officials have raised increasingly frustrated requests for greater support during discussions with Beijing in recent weeks, calling on China to live up to its affirmation of a “no limits” partnership made weeks before the war in Ukraine began. But China’s leadership wants to expand assistance for Russia without running afoul of Western sanctions and has set limits on what it will do, according to Chinese and U.S. o...

Yale Law School Prof. Amy Kapczynski: "If you work inside the Court, you know that the most concrete impact of the leak is to lock in this opinion essentially as is. Any edits at this point reveal jockeying between Justices, undermine the majority, and Court itself. Embarrassing to the majority."

Hans Kristensen: Russia MOD claims Ukraine might use “dirty bomb” & RIA claims “sources” say Ukraine is “preparing to detonate a low-yield nuclear weapon” in Ukraine “in order to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction.”

@Jgalt

In case anyone misses that this is net support (i.e., % supporting - % opposing), the percentages expressing support for interracial marriage are as follows:

All: 71%

DEM: 83%

IND: 73%

GOP: 56%

For additional context see: https://morningconsult.com/2022/07/25/survey-…

— edited by satisficer

@Joker What source are you looking at for casualties in Tigray?

[WaPo (Archive Link): Supreme Court seems open to ending affirmative action in college admissions](https://archive.ph/mwk5B#selection-431.0-460.0) >Conservative Supreme Court justices on Monday seemed open to ending decades of precedent allowing race-conscious admission decisions at colleges and universities, repeatedly expressing doubt that the institutions would ever concede an “endpoint” in their use of race to build diverse student bodies. > After nearly five hours of oral argument, the programs at Harvard College and the University of North Carolin...

WaPo (Archive Link): [UN rights body rejects Western bid to debate Xinjiang abuses](https://archive.ph/VoUZF) >GENEVA — In a close diplomatic victory for China, the U.N.’s top human rights body on Thursday voted down a proposal from Britain, Turkey, the United States and other mostly Western countries to hold a debate on alleged rights abuses against Muslim Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in China’s western Xinjiang region. >The proposal was for just to hold a debate, with no consistent monitoring of the rights situation, and amounted just about th...

Some points from a recent Twitter thread by Dimitri Alperovitch, citing Michael Kofman of CNA:

Putin doesn’t need to continue major offensives to declare a victory he can sell to domestic audience. Declaring full mobilization is very fraught politically for Putin. As @KofmanMichael pointed out on our last podcast, declaring mobilization also means enlarging current limited war aims and risking suffering a devastating loss he wouldn’t be able to explain away.

@alwaysrinse Twitter just [announced](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/covid-19) that it is no longer enforcing its COVID-19 misleading information policy (effective 23 Nov). See also: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-rolls-back-covid-misinformation-policy-2022-11-29/). This announcement is visible on the Twitter blog post you linked in your definition of flagging. Could you please confirm whether a Community Note on a NYT tweet would count as "flagging"? It seems like [Musk wants to keep Community Notes](https://...

REUTERS: U.S. President Joe Biden told G7 and NATO partners that a missile blast in eastern Poland was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile, a NATO source told Reuters on Wednesday.

@(rappatoni) I was at 15% in late May. I'm now at 10% for the following reasons: 1. As you noted earlier, Russia doesn't appear to have used CWs during the siege of Azovstal. 2. As @Prodicus notes, Russia seems to be making some progress in the Donbas. 3. I think that Western publics are losing interest in the war and that certain Western leaders would like a political settlement ASAP (especially with a global food crisis on the horizon). By breaking the CW taboo, Russia risks reinvigorating Western interest in the war (think Bucha massacre x 100) wh...

[Reuters: Russia open to in-person talks with U.S. on nuclear arms treaty](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-open-in-person-talks-with-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-2022-09-29/) >Russia said on Thursday it was studying the possibility of a face-to-face meeting between Russian and U.S. negotiators on a landmark nuclear arms control treaty. >In a briefing in Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia was open to reviving inspections under the New START treaty and considering the possibility of in-person meetings of a joint commission of...

[National Post](https://nationalpost.com/news/johnny-depp-rumoured-to-be-signed-for-beetlejuice-2): >Johnny Depp is rumoured to be making his post-trial film comeback by starring in Beetlejuice 2. >Fans have flooded social media with the claim after they noticed the embattled actor’s name seemed to appear on a call sheet found when they said they searched for the upcoming Beetlejuice 2, set for release in 2025, on Google. On [IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2049403/companycredits?ref_=tt_dt_co), Warner Bros. is listed on the Beetlejuice 2 productio...

RIA Novosti: Deputy of the 8th State Duma proposing a 10 year ban on Youtube

https://nitter.net/rianru/status/151374110305…

"Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's goal is for Sweden to join NATO in June this year, sources tell SvD. The information comes in parallel with Finland today presenting its new security policy analysis and the Swedish Social Democrats drawing up the plan to deal with the issue internally." [Google Translate]

https://www.svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgifter-till-sv…

[Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications) >Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit simultaneous membership applications to the US-led Nato alliance as early as the middle of next month, Nordic media have reported. >The Finnish daily Iltalehti said on Monday that Stockholm had “suggested the two countries indicate their willingness to join” on the same day, and that Helsinki had agreed “as long as the Swedish government has made...