### rodeo_flagellum (4) What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?

The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 31st, 2021, 12:10pm EST) with a value of 77.3% of the population with at least one dose of the vaccine.

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

### rodeo_flagellum (4) Will spending on US office construction be less than \$77 Billion USD in 2022?

My Prediction: 8%

Updating downwards. Here is the data (in Millions of USD) for the first three months of 2022:

• 84,760
• 84,723
• 84,579

With these numbers, the average for the next 9 months would have to be (12*77000 - (84760 + 84723 + 84579))/9 = 74437 for the yearly average to be at \$77 billion USD, and I believe this is very unlikely to occur.

### rodeo_flagellum (4) How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?

@(eibbett) I looked over the methodology link provided in the question, and after looking somewhat deeper into the matter, I believe that the costs of delayed business, infrastructure repair, and the emergency response, all stemming from the NYC metro area flooding, will be figured into the NOAA estimate, which sources its data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Here is the most useful information I found suggesting that this is the case: From __[NOAA's Billion-Dollar Disasters: Calculating the Costs](https://www.ncdc.noa...

### rodeo_flagellum (4) What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?

As of June 27th 2022, there have been 244 cases in 26 states.

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html

### rodeo_flagellum (4) What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent in the following years?

@SimonM I believe this is correct but, if not, can someone confirm that this is the correct method of accessing the data? 1. Head to Sea Ice Index [Data and Image](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives) archives 2. Under "Daily Sea Ice Extent Data Files" download "Southern Hemisphere Daily Data File" (Antarctica) 3. Look at the CSV and see the section (the lowest value is in bold, and the other values are all entries < 3 for the year 2021 in the table) | Year | Month | Day | Extent | | :------- | :------: |:------: |:------: | | YYYY | MM | ...

### rodeo_flagellum (4) Will the US enter a recession before the following dates?

Not sure how to ask this, but how likely is a recession, given that people believe a recession is coming? I am unfamiliar with the "dynamics" or economics of recessions, but would like to forecast on this question.

This comment was originally posted on 2023

### rodeo_flagellum (3) Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?

How are things going? - __2021__: 460, 0.696969696969697 times 2017 values - __2020__: 575, 0.8712121212121212 times 2017 values - __2019__: 567, 0.8590909090909091 times 2017 values - __2018__: 677, 1.0257575757575759 times 2017 values - __2017__: 660, 1.0 times 2017 values The slope is just (1.0-0.697)/5=0.0606 decrease per year. If this trend continues, then we get that 2030 will be 0.697-(9*0.0606)=0.1516 times the interest of 2017 values. If there is just one year of exceptionally high interest between the closed interval 2022-2030, then I th...

### rodeo_flagellum (3) Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?

@rodeo_flagellum

It is now November 1st, and there have only been an additional 13 deaths reported since September 7th.

### rodeo_flagellum (3) What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?

The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 10th, 2021, 10:30am EST) with a value of 75.3% of the total population of Virginia with at least one dose of the vaccine.

### rodeo_flagellum (3) What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?

Okay, so for the last two weeks, daily increases have been around 0.10%.

Yesterday, there was an update increase of ~2.00%.

Today's value: Feb. 02: 2605932/6012528 = 43.34 (+0.09%) W

So today's increase follows the older trend.

I believe that, for the days leading up to Feb. 11, the ~0.10% increases each day will remain, giving us ~44.24 as the final value. This assumes there is no major update or changes to the values similar to what occurred yesterday.

### rodeo_flagellum (3) Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?

I think this question resolves negatively. @TomL Here is the table from the spreadsheet. | Indicator | Release | Consensus | MP | Resolution | MP right side?| | :------- | :------: |:------: |:------: |:------: |:------: | | Michigan CSI Sept | 9/17/21 | 72.0 | 74.2 | 71 | N| | US Building permits Aug | 9/21/21 | 1.62 | 1.6 | 1.72 | N| | Durable Goods Aug | 9/27/21 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.8 | N| | Non-farm payrolls Sept | 10/8/21 | 0.5 | 0.461 | 0.194 | Y| | Retail Sales Sept | 10/15/21 | 617 | 615 | 625 | N| | Industrial Production Sept | 10/18/21 | 0...

### rodeo_flagellum (3) How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?

@admins @kievalet I just checked the dashboard today (December 19th, 2021, 12:23:00pm EST) and it is available. After setting Begin Date = 8/25/2021 and End Date = 12/17/2021, and setting Population = Undergraduate, the number of Total Cases = 473. I think this should be the resolve value.

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

### rodeo_flagellum (3) What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?

Global.health uses the CDC's data (I believe, need to check again), that the CDC updates at 2pm EST each day, that this questions resolves at 12pm EST, and that the present # of monkeypox cases in the USA is 396, this will likely resolve at 396.

### rodeo_flagellum (3) What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?

As of October 1st, it appears that the percentage of Virginia's overall population that's fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 is 60.3%.

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

### rodeo_flagellum (3) How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?

Here is the data from the source:

• 2021: 1,971
• 2020: 1,401
• 2019: 1,335
• 2018: 2,270
• 2017: 3,139
• 2016: 5,096
• 2015: 3,771
• 2014: 3,538

@Jgalt

I prefer them.

### rodeo_flagellum (3) Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

@juancambeiro

If the WHO does not declare Monkeypox a PHEIC tomorrow, how many, if any, subsequent meetings might occur where Monkeypox would again be evaluated for classification as a PHEIC?

### rodeo_flagellum (3) What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?

This appears to resolve to 1.589 M . @TomL

### rodeo_flagellum (3) Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?

Am I looking at the correct quantities? Are these correct? ``` lfpr_2021 = [61.4,61.5,61.5,61.7,61.6,61.6,61.7,61.7,61.7,61.7,61.9,61.9] lfpr_2020 = [63.4,63.4,62.7,60.2,60.8,61.4,61.5,61.7,61.4,61.6,61.5,61.5] lfpr_2019 = [63.1,63.1,63.1,62.9,62.9,62.9,63.1,63.1,63.2,63.2,63.2,63.3] lfpr_2018 = [62.7,63.0,62.9,62.9,62.9,62.9,62.9,62.7,62.7,62.9,62.9,63.0] print(f"Average LFPR 2021: {sum(lfpr_2021)/len(lfpr_2021)}") print(f"Average LFPR 2020: {sum(lfpr_2020)/len(lfpr_2020)}") print(f"Average LFPR 2019: {sum(lfpr_2019)/len(lfpr_2019)}") print(f"Average ...

### rodeo_flagellum (3) Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

@Jgalt

I back this suggestion.