The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 31st, 2021, 12:10pm EST) with a value of 77.3% of the population with at least one dose of the vaccine.

@admins

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

My Prediction: 8%

Updating downwards. Here is the data (in Millions of USD) for the first three months of 2022:

• 84,760
• 84,723
• 84,579

With these numbers, the average for the next 9 months would have to be (12*77000 - (84760 + 84723 + 84579))/9 = 74437 for the yearly average to be at $77 billion USD, and I believe this is very unlikely to occur.

@(eibbett) I looked over the methodology link provided in the question, and after looking somewhat deeper into the matter, I believe that the costs of delayed business, infrastructure repair, and the emergency response, all stemming from the NYC metro area flooding, will be figured into the NOAA estimate, which sources its data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Here is the most useful information I found suggesting that this is the case: From __[NOAA's Billion-Dollar Disasters: Calculating the Costs](https://www.ncdc.noa...

As of June 27th 2022, there have been 244 cases in 26 states.

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html

@SimonM I believe this is correct but, if not, can someone confirm that this is the correct method of accessing the data? 1. Head to Sea Ice Index [Data and Image](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives) archives 2. Under "Daily Sea Ice Extent Data Files" download "Southern Hemisphere Daily Data File" (Antarctica) 3. Look at the CSV and see the section (the lowest value is in bold, and the other values are all entries < 3 for the year 2021 in the table) | Year | Month | Day | Extent | | :------- | :------: |:------: |:------: | | YYYY | MM | ...

Not sure how to ask this, but how likely is a recession, given that people believe a recession is coming? I am unfamiliar with the "dynamics" or economics of recessions, but would like to forecast on this question.

This comment was originally posted on 2023

How are things going? - __2021__: 460, 0.696969696969697 times 2017 values - __2020__: 575, 0.8712121212121212 times 2017 values - __2019__: 567, 0.8590909090909091 times 2017 values - __2018__: 677, 1.0257575757575759 times 2017 values - __2017__: 660, 1.0 times 2017 values The slope is just (1.0-0.697)/5=0.0606 decrease per year. If this trend continues, then we get that 2030 will be 0.697-(9*0.0606)=0.1516 times the interest of 2017 values. If there is just one year of exceptionally high interest between the closed interval 2022-2030, then I th...

@rodeo_flagellum

It is now November 1st, and there have only been an additional 13 deaths reported since September 7th.

The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 10th, 2021, 10:30am EST) with a value of 75.3% of the total population of Virginia with at least one dose of the vaccine.

Okay, so for the last two weeks, daily increases have been around 0.10%.

Yesterday, there was an update increase of ~2.00%.

Today's value: Feb. 02: 2605932/6012528 = 43.34 (+0.09%) W

So today's increase follows the older trend.

I believe that, for the days leading up to Feb. 11, the ~0.10% increases each day will remain, giving us ~44.24 as the final value. This assumes there is no major update or changes to the values similar to what occurred yesterday.

I think this question resolves negatively. @TomL Here is the table from the spreadsheet. | Indicator | Release | Consensus | MP | Resolution | MP right side?| | :------- | :------: |:------: |:------: |:------: |:------: | | Michigan CSI Sept | 9/17/21 | 72.0 | 74.2 | 71 | N| | US Building permits Aug | 9/21/21 | 1.62 | 1.6 | 1.72 | N| | Durable Goods Aug | 9/27/21 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.8 | N| | Non-farm payrolls Sept | 10/8/21 | 0.5 | 0.461 | 0.194 | Y| | Retail Sales Sept | 10/15/21 | 617 | 615 | 625 | N| | Industrial Production Sept | 10/18/21 | 0...

@admins @kievalet I just checked the dashboard today (December 19th, 2021, 12:23:00pm EST) and it is available. After setting Begin Date = 8/25/2021 and End Date = 12/17/2021, and setting Population = Undergraduate, the number of Total Cases = 473. I think this should be the resolve value.

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

Global.health uses the CDC's data (I believe, need to check again), that the CDC updates at 2pm EST each day, that this questions resolves at 12pm EST, and that the present # of monkeypox cases in the USA is 396, this will likely resolve at 396.

As of October 1st, it appears that the percentage of Virginia's overall population that's fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 is 60.3%.

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

Here is the data from the source:

• Year: Dead and missing
• 2021: 1,971
• 2020: 1,401
• 2019: 1,335
• 2018: 2,270
• 2017: 3,139
• 2016: 5,096
• 2015: 3,771
• 2014: 3,538

@Jgalt

I prefer them.

@juancambeiro

If the WHO does not declare Monkeypox a PHEIC tomorrow, how many, if any, subsequent meetings might occur where Monkeypox would again be evaluated for classification as a PHEIC?

This appears to resolve to 1.589 M . @TomL

Am I looking at the correct quantities? Are these correct? ``` lfpr_2021 = [61.4,61.5,61.5,61.7,61.6,61.6,61.7,61.7,61.7,61.7,61.9,61.9] lfpr_2020 = [63.4,63.4,62.7,60.2,60.8,61.4,61.5,61.7,61.4,61.6,61.5,61.5] lfpr_2019 = [63.1,63.1,63.1,62.9,62.9,62.9,63.1,63.1,63.2,63.2,63.2,63.3] lfpr_2018 = [62.7,63.0,62.9,62.9,62.9,62.9,62.9,62.7,62.7,62.9,62.9,63.0] print(f"Average LFPR 2021: {sum(lfpr_2021)/len(lfpr_2021)}") print(f"Average LFPR 2020: {sum(lfpr_2020)/len(lfpr_2020)}") print(f"Average LFPR 2019: {sum(lfpr_2019)/len(lfpr_2019)}") print(f"Average ...

@Jgalt

I back this suggestion.