This is a major improvement to the platform in my opinion. Thank you to whoever contributed to the implementation of this feature!

I can't recall who among the commenters across the Ukraine questions posted this resource, but the [Institute for the Study of War]( I've found to be useful in monitoring this conflict. Yesterday, they posted their [8th update]( Summarized in the update were some points that seem relevant to this question. Also, I am not sure how certain / accurate the organization is, but others can decide this. The points I put in bold conce...
At the ACX Meetup in Teardrop Park (NYC) today (September 06, 2021), I asked Scott about this question and he told me that he - has seen this question - desires to maximize irony / the likelihood of an ironic outcome - will look at the comments of this question (in response to me suggesting that it would be a good idea to look at the comments of this question, specifically @honeypuppy 's comment) I don’t know how my comment here will factor into an ironic master plan, nor do I know whether Scott will remember my remarks and look at this post again. ...

As stated previously in private channels, Congratulations Evan!

I think you are a great fit for this role and I look forward to your future contributions!

Decent Ukraine Update post on LessWrong by Zvi (

wrt this question, Zvi writes:

I am confident the true answer is Yes, I am less confident it will resolve that way.

___Methods___: Advanced Search Google Scholar _Exact phrase_: "delay second dose" _Range_: 2018-2021 I didn't include any essays written by authors of papers in response to other papers. There were 2 of these, I believe. ___Results___: - _US won't delay second dose_;; I don't believe this qualifies as scientific literature; __N/A__ - _COVID-19 vaccine efficacy data: solid enough to delay second dose?_;; "As we have noted previously, we have reason to believe...
___My Prediction: 78.4 (25%) - 78.8 (median) - 79.2 (75%) ___ This prediction is influenced by the forecast of 78.81712806 for January 21st and 95% confidence interval of 78.58598411 - 79.04827202 produced by the model outline below. I __don't trust__ my models much, because I am still learning about time series. _Prelude_ - I am learning more about time series modeling, and wanted to try using it for this question. Most of my time has been spent playing around with and testing code, rather than exploring original source papers or covering it theoret...
From [2022 in spaceflight]( |Country | Launches |Successes |Failures |Partial failures |Remarks| | --- | --- | --- | ---| ---| ---| | China | 62 | 60 |2 |0 | | Europe |4 |4 |0 |0 | | India |5 |4| 1 |0 | | Iran |1 | 1 | 0| 0 | | Japan |1 |0 |1 |0 | | Russia |22 |22 |0 | 0 | Includes Soyuz launches from Kourou and Baikonur| | South Korea |1 |1 |0| 0 | | United States |82 |79 |2 |1 | Includes Electron launches from Mahia| |World |178...
Interesting... good work, but I have some questions. - Are there any plans to move beyond conditional pairs to conditional _chains_ of questions? - I imagine things might get messy when a Child question has many Parents; will all Parent questions be collected under the same Child question in a question group, or will each Parent-Child pair be its own conditional question, even if the Child question occurs often on the site? - Finally, will there be an option for users to suggest conditional pairs when writing questions, or is this relegated to admins /...


These are terms I was looking for, i.e. my question should have been "To what degree are fears of recession self-fulfilling?".

Thank you @TemetNosce as well.

This comment was originally posted on 2023


Close, I made the same mistake for the last hospitalizations question. The number you referenced is not the 7-day moving average, but instead is the value for current+pending hospitalizations for February 18th.

The 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022, is 1617, according to the VDH, accessed 18 February 2022, 12:32pm EST.

I am not sure if others are familiar with this site, but for historical data on North Korean missile launches, see this CSIS Missile Defense Project page.

Launches in 2021 are not reported on that page, at the moment, but Wikipedia can be consulted for more recent information.

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

Suggestion: add something akin to "global catastrophic risk" or "existential risk" as a category?

For example, one of my questions on volcano activity is tagged "Effective Altruism", when it would better be put under "global catastrophic risk".

— edited by rodeo_flagellum

From [2023 Writers Guild of America strike]( > The 2023 Writers Guild of America strike is an ongoing labor dispute between the Writers Guild of America (WGA) labor union (representing 11,500 writers) and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), which began at 12:01 a.m. PDT on May 2, 2023.[1][2] and > The main focus point in the labor dispute is the residuals from streaming media;[4] the WGA claims that AMPTP's share of such residuals has cut much of writers' ...

Some other years, for context:

  • Year: Successful Launches
  • 2021: 144-11=133
  • 2020: 114-10=104
  • 2019: 102-5=97
  • 2018: 114-3=111
  • 2017: 90-6=84

Kind of late to report these values, but we have the following data, thus far, according to OECD (accessed 20 December 2022 at 11:35AM, UTC+1):

  • Q3: 30,762,740,000,000.0000
  • Q2: 29,246,380,000,000.0000
  • Q1: 27,017,780,000,000.0000

So, the question can now be reduced to whether or not Q4 > Q3 for China in 2022.


From [NASA]('s website: > As NASA’s Parker Solar Probe approaches its 13th perihelion, or close encounter, with the Sun on Sept. 6, it is heading into a much different solar environment than ever before. > > NASA reported earlier this summer that Solar Cycle 25 is already exceeding predictions for solar activity, even with solar maximum not to come for another three years. In recent days, a sunspot the size of Earth has rapidly deve...
@(fianxu) @Eharding I was at 85% but after watching a lot of videos from February 25th and February 26th on [Documenting Reality]( (be weary of this site; I would not recommend continued engagement to preserve the size of your amygdala) I lowered to 68% (slightly less than 7 in 10 mental simulations Russia will get Kyiv) . The [Institute for the Study of War](

"...identifiable American and Russian forces"

I assume, since this has not resolved positively, that American military personnel fighting independently of the US Military in Ukraine presently does not count towards resolution.

An update on the numbers: the [_United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs_]( (the resolution metric) reports that as of September 6th, 2021, __326__ Palestinians have been killed in the context of occupation and conflict. More specifically, __263__ have died in the Gaza Strip, predominantly from _Air-launched explosives_, and __63__ have died in West Bank, predominantly from _Live ammunition_. Interestingly, "Men" only made up ~62% of the total casualties. There was 1 fatality on Septem...