I can't recall who among the commenters across the Ukraine questions posted this resource, but the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/project/ukraine-project) I've found to be useful in monitoring this conflict. Yesterday, they posted their [8th update](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-8). Summarized in the update were some points that seem relevant to this question. Also, I am not sure how certain / accurate the organization is, but others can decide this. The points I put in bold conce...
At the ACX Meetup in Teardrop Park (NYC) today (September 06, 2021), I asked Scott about this question and he told me that he - has seen this question - desires to maximize irony / the likelihood of an ironic outcome - will look at the comments of this question (in response to me suggesting that it would be a good idea to look at the comments of this question, specifically @honeypuppy 's comment) I don’t know how my comment here will factor into an ironic master plan, nor do I know whether Scott will remember my remarks and look at this post again. ...
___Methods___: Advanced Search Google Scholar _Exact phrase_: "delay second dose" _Range_: 2018-2021 I didn't include any essays written by authors of papers in response to other papers. There were 2 of these, I believe. ___Results___: - _US won't delay second dose_; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0262-4079(21)00440-1; I don't believe this qualifies as scientific literature; __N/A__ - _COVID-19 vaccine efficacy data: solid enough to delay second dose?_; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01046-1; "As we have noted previously, we have reason to believe...
___My Prediction: 78.4 (25%) - 78.8 (median) - 79.2 (75%) ___ This prediction is influenced by the forecast of 78.81712806 for January 21st and 95% confidence interval of 78.58598411 - 79.04827202 produced by the model outline below. I __don't trust__ my models much, because I am still learning about time series. _Prelude_ - I am learning more about time series modeling, and wanted to try using it for this question. Most of my time has been spent playing around with and testing code, rather than exploring original source papers or covering it theoret...


These are terms I was looking for, i.e. my question should have been "To what degree are fears of recession self-fulfilling?".

Thank you @TemetNosce as well.


Close, I made the same mistake for the last hospitalizations question. The number you referenced is not the 7-day moving average, but instead is the value for current+pending hospitalizations for February 18th.

The 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022, is 1617, according to the VDH, accessed 18 February 2022, 12:32pm EST.

I am not sure if others are familiar with this site, but for historical data on North Korean missile launches, see this CSIS Missile Defense Project page.

Launches in 2021 are not reported on that page, at the moment, but Wikipedia can be consulted for more recent information.

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Suggestion: add something akin to "global catastrophic risk" or "existential risk" as a category?

For example, one of my questions on volcano activity is tagged "Effective Altruism", when it would better be put under "global catastrophic risk".

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Some other years, for context:

  • Year: Successful Launches
  • 2021: 144-11=133
  • 2020: 114-10=104
  • 2019: 102-5=97
  • 2018: 114-3=111
  • 2017: 90-6=84
@(fianxu) @Eharding I was at 85% but after watching a lot of videos from February 25th and February 26th on [Documenting Reality](https://www.documentingreality.com/forum/f266/ukraine-footage-dump-day-3-4-russian-invasion-25th-26th-feb-230278/) (be weary of this site; I would not recommend continued engagement to preserve the size of your amygdala) I lowered to 68% (slightly less than 7 in 10 mental simulations Russia will get Kyiv) . The [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russ...
An update on the numbers: the [_United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs_](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) (the resolution metric) reports that as of September 6th, 2021, __326__ Palestinians have been killed in the context of occupation and conflict. More specifically, __263__ have died in the Gaza Strip, predominantly from _Air-launched explosives_, and __63__ have died in West Bank, predominantly from _Live ammunition_. Interestingly, "Men" only made up ~62% of the total casualties. There was 1 fatality on Septem...

As of December 20th, 2021, Discord is #4 and Clubhouse is #14 on "Top Charts: iPhone - US - Social Networking", which supports the case for it being unlikely that Clubhouse will surpass Discord on the App store.

The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 31st, 2021, 12:10pm EST) with a value of 2044402/5771230 = 35.42% of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia.


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Possible error in data reporting:

On Dec. 05 the fully vaccinated population was 5616461

On Dec. 06 the fully vaccinated population was updated to 5603369

___My prediction: 20%___ There is currently one month - December 2021 - missing for this calculation, but for 2021, the current average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending is __81.7256__ billion. I don't expect December to deviate much from this value. Here are the individual values for 2021 (in millions): - Jan-2021 82472.0 - Feb-2021 79397.0 - Mar-2021 80700.0 - Apr-2021 80739.0 - May-2021 80860.0 - Jun-2021 81143.0 - Jul-2021 81426.0 - Aug-2021 82921.0 - Sep-2021 82753.0 - Oct-2021 83274.0 - Nov-2021 832...
@NunoSempere I believe this should resolve negatively, but do not know if ACE will update again before the end of the year. [ACE](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) recently (November 2021) updated their list of top charities: - Faunalytics - The Humane League - Wild Animal Initiative and their list of Standout charities - Animal International - Compassion USA - Dharma Voices for Animals - Essere Animali - Federation of Indian Animal Protection Organisations - Good Food Fund - Material Innovation Init...

The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 31st, 2021, 12:10pm EST) with a value of 31.5% vaccination for 5-11 years olds.


— edited by rodeo_flagellum

The COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard was updated today (December 31st, 2021, 12:10pm EST) with a value of 77.3% of the population with at least one dose of the vaccine.


— edited by rodeo_flagellum

@(eibbett) I looked over the methodology link provided in the question, and after looking somewhat deeper into the matter, I believe that the costs of delayed business, infrastructure repair, and the emergency response, all stemming from the NYC metro area flooding, will be figured into the NOAA estimate, which sources its data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Here is the most useful information I found suggesting that this is the case: From __[NOAA's Billion-Dollar Disasters: Calculating the Costs](https://www.ncdc.noa...