@EvanHarper thank you very much for pointing out that NYC is moving towards IRV.

@Sylvain,@Tamay this question doesn't seem to be showing up in the pandemic domain. Shouldn't it?

@Matthew_Barnett right now most folks reading this know who robin hanson is.

If this question lives on for 50 years will that still be the case?

just lhinking to the wikipedia article would fix that.

This is he first question involving Metaculute Matthew Barnett i have commented on.

I have no certain knowledge on who MB is and his connection to RH. Showing up the bio IMHO would be helpful especctially hen we have a high profile person with the same legal name

I would like to be notified of posts from the highest scoring metaculus participants. Right now there is only a general ranking of participants in each domain, I've previously suggested metaculus include some kind of subject area ranking/scoring. If that were done, then I could be notified of posts of say a participant who is high scoring in a particular subject area who is writing about questsion in that subject area. I make it a policy to pay close attention to posts from folks who have higher scores than I do. One of the nice things about Metacul...
I think we need more questions that highlight the variation in state by state policies in response to C-19. One of the fundamental differences between the government of the United States and that of many other countries is that US state governments have quite a bit of autonomy in some areas. In the 1918 pandemic we saw big differences that reflected differences in state policies. State governments in general can respond to a situation much more quickly than the federal government. If Metaculous can highlight just what state policies might have a posit...
@(KrisMoore) This is an entire book devoted to substance abuse on the part of presidents. [Party like a President](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22716244-party-like-a-president) Yes, by stimulents I am referring to cocaine and amphetamines--both [hard drugs](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11660210) according the taxonomy of David Nutt, the former UK Drug Czar. There is plenty of [anecdotal evidence](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11660210) in this area. What it reminds me of of: in the old days the press was reluctant to report much on the private l...
Robin Hanson proposed markets that track how companies respond to a change in their CEO. That is discusseed in this article here: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/dumpceo.html There are about 3600 publcly traded companies in the United States. All of those companies are required by the SEC to report who their officers are in the Edgar database. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EDGAR A set of scripts could track stock prices and changes in CEO to create and judge these claims fairly automatically. This set of question might provide a way for financial ...
@(Rexracer63) my read on this questio text is is would not. Even if he operated as Chairman of the board, but hired a trusted CEO this question would not be yes. If i had been writing this question i would have included that as a question: now that the question is operational, i think that needs a separate question. As does the general hostile takeover scenario: Musk really may get 51% of voting shares/proxies at some point and get a board in that conforms to his "free speak absolutist" visionn for twitter. https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...

Bill Gates is funding construction of vaccine factories anticipating that most of them will never be used.

— edited by randallburns

@JackW Former direct report to secretary of defense that use to manage a special forces group. I worked for him in Silicon Valley and keep in touch. He has a lot of DC contacts(at one point worked in the white house.

@DanielFilan related to this: i would like to get an email when the relationship between my prediction and some index of my choice(Community Prediction, metaculus prediction or any prediction created by a user bot) changes beyond some bound i specify. I think this might help generate better predicions overall.

We already have el salvador accepting bitcoin as legal tender; it is a small jump IMHO from that to eliminating paper currency and coins.

@moderators I would strongly suggest that a list of news agencies be included with this question

I would also specify that a user must post a reference to that mention here-that takes the responsibility off from the moderators to monitor the news agencies.

I question with Musk and Zubrin are correct that mars is the optimal target for space development. I personally expect that in 2075 there will be more people working/living off the surface of the Earth or Mars that on the surface of Mars. I doubt very much that living in an environment with 40% that of earth is healthy for humans long term. I also think the economic considerations will make O'Neill habitats a much better bet than Mars.

@Aaron14 my own bet is a nice discreet "accident" or surprise "natural" death. Putin is no longer good for business.

Right now, when you search questions you have the option to order by newest, activity, interest. I would suggest adding features to enable one to order questions by incentive to answer importance of the quesion By incentive to answer, what I have in mind: I would like people to have the option to provide small cash incentives to metaculus participants to answer questions of the choice of the sponsor. This is a way for Metaculus to get revenue which I suspect might be helpful. it is also a way to greater participation in metaculus. A sponsor should ...

I'd like to see the metaculus team seriously start to eat their own dog food.

Some ideas in this area: questions on the alexa rank of the metaculus site over time

Questions on the number of metaculus participants over time

The fundamental issue: what types of question areas and features will do the most to make the metaculus site popular, respected and accurate?

Another important question: just what is the political and social significance if metaculus does become important, respected and accurate?

i would like the ability to do some simple, formulaic predictions.

one example might be to specify a fixed probability but also indicate that it will degrade over time

Another is it tie the probability to that of one or more questions by some formula.

What this might evolve into a way to measure the importance of specific questios in affecting others.

— edited by randallburns

i really like the public figures page. However, i would like to identify just which public figures have either a) resolved questions b) questions currently actively in play

while looking at that page.

a) When I create a question, I would like the _option_ to deny people the ability to see the community prediction(and metaculus prediction) _until_ they have created a prediction of their own. b) when viewing the community prediction, I would like to filter predictions easily by i) date(eliminate everything say older than 30 days) ii) look at the most recent predictions c) i would like not just one score, but subscores. I think psychologically this is important because it is more chances to win. it would also let folks know area where there predicti...