One important item missing from the current vaccination claims: Will any country or list of countries make a Coronavirus Vaccine cumpulsory for some portion of their citizens?

That has happened with other vaccines, but usually after they have been around for a while.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_p…

If that is done in the time frame of this context, IMHO it would be a big deal

@Jgalt i have starteda question draft relatd to this.

This question asks: will the winner of the US presidential election win while obtaining less than 50% of the popular vote?

Donald Trump, George W Bush and Bill Clinton all won the presidency with less than 50% of the popular vote. Will that happen again in 2020?

@cd @AABoyles @Sylvain @Anthony One idea I have had here: a) let folks rank various options b) let them draw a curve that connects the lowest to the highest probability and fills in the blanks

That would let folks make a LOT of predictions relatively rapidly.

That becomes especially important if we want to greatly expand the number of conjunct/conditional questions which I think is in the future of Metaculus.

@2e10e122 another important part of the question: how will the typical GOP donor feel about folks who do not vote to convict? We already have some wealthy interests backing away from Trump

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/12/956145776/forb…

I want to see a series of questions that will help predict when O'Neill space habitats exist.

I think as the fall election nears there are a lot of question that can be based on the party outcome of the presidency and congress. i've submitted a quartet of such questions dealing with the likely number of COVID-19 deaths is we have with [GOP control of both congress and the presidency](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4650/will-republicans-win-both-halves-of-congress--presidency-in-the-us-2020-election/) GOP presidency but no firm GOP control of congress Democratic control of the presidency and congress Democratic presidency without control...

I am placing high odds on a conviction because i think elements of the GOP old guard find Trump to be toxic and want to sideline him. If he is impeached Donald Trump can be prevented from ever running for office again. Also, there are a bunch of other charges at a state level hanging over Trump's head. If they acquit and state/DC courst convict it those folks will lose face.

Quite simply: to not convict will make folks look impotent-which is something people like Moscow Mitch simply cannot afford.

— edited by randallburns

I think it will happen because leaving the LDS is so gut-wrenching for so many of the gays and lesbians that grow up in the LDS--and the LDS leadership will not want to lose the children coming from this population.

I'm low because I'm kind of expecting this around 2035-2040.

— edited by randallburns

@tenthkrige Yes, they are still in pending status. I'm new to metaculus. I was active in ideosphere when that prediction market was new and more active

My predictions are around early mobilization of lunar materials and construction of a lunar space elevator.

How many states will still permit legal abortion in 2030? How many states will still permit same sex marriage?

@danpen I find the math here a bit unlikely

This sounds like some kind of disinformation operation-ie. someone way have deliberately placed those ballots where they might be found.

There have been rumors around for a while that Putin has some serious health problems including parkinson's disease. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-putin-health/uk-media-report-that-putin-is-ill-and-poised-to-quit-is-nonsense-says-kremlin-idUKKBN27M17H If he sticks around Putin will probably be charged with war crimes https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10053/putin-charged-for-war-crimes/ There are varous toxins linked to Parkinson's disease: accelerating development of this condition might be a lot more discreet than an assassination. ...

I am low on this based on these assumptions/observations: a) both Georgia senate races go into run-offs which appear likely b) Georgia has had exceptionally bad SARS=CoV-2 response and appears posed to be exceptionally hard hit between now and the run-off elections c) Trump has made various claims around SARS-CoV-2 response that nay be demonstrated to be clearly false by the run-off elections d) Both GOP candidates praised Trump's covid approach which may haunt them by the run off elections. e) these run offs will be clearly important and there will be n...

@Jgalt Another important metric is labor force participation rate. Unemployment rate gets gamed all kinds of ways.

@Lorxus it would be interesting to see evidence of this in metaculus scores over time.

I do see a cult of personality developing around trump. However, there have been various liberal error modes also. I'm not clear what the big picture is here.

In superforecasting they saw no obvious ideological correlates.

I think this is a decent question to have here, but imHo the time frame is off. We need an identical question ending in 2060. imho the hysteria is just starting. Note; I personally think the hysteria is more likely to be seen along religious lines than racial ones, but i think we need more questions than measure these potential chances.

I think some questions about the differences Covid-19 death rates between a) major countries b) states in the US are in order.

My own hunch here: Covid-19 will be handled much better by high HDI states in the US than in lower HDI states. One approximation there might be Red vs. Blue states.

If this is correct it could have real political implications.

Gallup has polled on confidence in US institutions for years

I think we could create some good 10 year question in this general area.

— edited by randallburns

Question series I would like to create an ongoing series of questions for things like elections. Those can be easily judged by ballotpedia. That process could even be automated.

The idea here is that once a question series is created it will get automatically updated each election cycle.

@EvanHarper thank you very much for pointing out that NYC is moving towards IRV.