I think this question deserves being part of a series, that closes every 10 years so folks can see how predictions in this respect change over time.

Besides individuals, i think we ought to extend "public figures" to include publications, think tanks and eventually organizations.

I think this is all a big step in the right direction.

Also, this underscores the needs for specific subject area scores(i.e. foreign policy, economic policy, social policy). We want to make sure we are comparing public figures in roughly the same areas.

My read on the current research: overall predictive ability may not vary as much as specific areas of "blind spots".

https://ballotpedia.org/Incumbents_defeated_i… In recent decades congressional reelection rates have varied between 85.4% and 96.9% (that refers to the % of house reps seeking reelection that actually get another term). In the wake of C-19 it might be interesting to look at how that varies in the 2020 and 2024 election seasons.

Ark Invest has published forecasts of the Tesla Stock Price based their [model](https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/?fbclid=IwAR2uu11856AqqMXx2rp33wg7b8uiEcHACBNeJhvpacT8iXpz4wDrQjN481I) with 34 inputs. The actually spredsheets are [here](https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model/blob/master/Tesla%202025%20Valuation%20Extract%20for%20Github_3.18.21.xlsx) I think this model could be improved by tying each of the inputs into a a metaculus question. Ark runs some of the hottest funds right now. Cr...

How many states will still permit legal abortion in 2030? How many states will still permit same sex marriage?

Enhancing the social/informational community aspect of metaculus. Metaculus is already the most popular prediction site on the net. The thing is: there are aspects of metaculus that may not scale well. One of them is the discussion forums. it is easy to miss posts that one may want to see. I previously had suggested the abiltiy to filter posts by score of the poster-and breaking score down into areas of specialization. The idea there is that someone would focus on posts from folks with predictive track record in general or in a specific area. Somethi...
@(Jgalt) Actually let's extend that to all governors, senators, Justices of the SCOTUS and cabinet officials--and for that matter their masters--[the Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/#6b0830ea7e2f) and the CEO's of the US Fortune 500. If any of them tweet or mention metaculus in an article published under their name or publicly meet with any of the top 100 metaclus partcipants(as mentioned in the New York Times or Washington Post)--that would be big deal in metaculus moving towards becoming established as a recognized decision support tool...

@notany Had the police leadership been following Metaculus, even a 4% risk of a riot meant they needed a lot more preparation/numbers on the scene. They are listening to clowns. The pepper spray and rubber bullets should have started WAY before rioters entered to the senate. This isn't some minor building in Portland. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5752/coup…

@(Jgalt) the First past the post votings system can easily select leaders with little popular base. Condorcet voting is intended to avoid that and is demonstrated [here](https://civs.cs.cornell.edu/) Part of our job here at Metaculus is to be place where folks with very different ideology can have civil productive discusssions. Just FYI I was a Ralph Nader/Dennis Kucinich/Bernie Sanders Supporter/Campaign volunteer/donor. I suspect you are not, but we have managed to be civil to each other in this context which i think it is important given what is ...

The way this question is worded it means someone frozen by 2030 being revived by 2060. I see that as rather unlikely. However, as the freezing date increaes and the date to revival increases it will increase. My guess is that by 2150 there will be the demonstrated ability to freeze someone and revive them.

I would like to see the question creation problem be made a little more robust and less demanding on the time of moderators. Currently the process is to post questions in the suggestions thread where they may or may not get input. What i think might be better: add more stages to questions: a) editing only the author and specified metaculus users can see the questin. The author can simply specify the user by name in the comments and they then can read the question and post comments. The question goes to the next stage when the author specifies this...
@(Jgalt) This is textbook narcissistic tendencies. Narcissists cannot admit failure or mistakes. That is one reason these folks lot to be at the center of a cult of personality. Just FYI i have dealt with a close relative with NPD-maybe even worse than DJT(but less severe drug addiction than [Old Saucer eyes](https://medium.com/@DrGJackBrown/body-language-and-medical-analysis-4221-why-are-donald-trumps-pupils-intermittently-so-large-f4d883c8126a) Had Trump compentently dealt with covid-19 he could have had a second term. He could have left someone else ...

i think we need some questions on US life expectancy

for example:

Will us life expectancy fall in 2022? What will us ilfe expectancy be in 2030? When will us life expectancy increase for 3 years in a row? When will the gap between the us and peer countries return to its pre-2018 level?

this article explains some of what is going on:


I would like to get notifications for selected questions if the ratio of my prediction to the community or metaculus predictions changes beyond some factor.

I think we need a separate question on other forms of Trump being removed from office: resignation, death, impleachment.

I've heard that 12 GOP senators have just said they would vote to convict if Trump were now impeached again.

longbets.org, predictwise.com and predictit.org are all bet based prediction sites. I think it might be interesting to mirror the items being bet on in these and any other prediction markets here on metaculus. Those sites face regulatory limitations because they involve money that metaculus does not face. Mirroring the items would have some real benefits. it would over time collect data that could be used to compare prediction markets vs. metaculus's voting process(which reminds me a be of the delphi method). When intrade was active, we saw some exam...

I think the issue is not just that events are unlikely but unlikely and important in the sense they are likely to effect the odds of other events.

I'd like some better way to express how that works in metaculus.

@DanielFilan i wrote this because i figured that either a civil war, invasion or major terrorist incident focused on the military would have to trigger this level of casualties. The one of those I see as most likely would be civil war.

I'd like to see a blog with these kinds of fortified essays, perhaps selected by some kind of careful, distributed process.

I've done a few videos on youtube related to Metaculus questions. There are a lot of financial youtubers briniging in substantial money with much poorer analysis then we see here on metaculus.