I think this question deserves being part of a series, that closes every 10 years so folks can see how predictions in this respect change over time.

https://ballotpedia.org/Incumbents_defeated_i… In recent decades congressional reelection rates have varied between 85.4% and 96.9% (that refers to the % of house reps seeking reelection that actually get another term). In the wake of C-19 it might be interesting to look at how that varies in the 2020 and 2024 election seasons.

Ark Invest has published forecasts of the Tesla Stock Price based their [model](https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/?fbclid=IwAR2uu11856AqqMXx2rp33wg7b8uiEcHACBNeJhvpacT8iXpz4wDrQjN481I) with 34 inputs. The actually spredsheets are [here](https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model/blob/master/Tesla%202025%20Valuation%20Extract%20for%20Github_3.18.21.xlsx) I think this model could be improved by tying each of the inputs into a a metaculus question. Ark runs some of the hottest funds right now. Cr...
Enhancing the social/informational community aspect of metaculus. Metaculus is already the most popular prediction site on the net. The thing is: there are aspects of metaculus that may not scale well. One of them is the discussion forums. it is easy to miss posts that one may want to see. I previously had suggested the abiltiy to filter posts by score of the poster-and breaking score down into areas of specialization. The idea there is that someone would focus on posts from folks with predictive track record in general or in a specific area. Somethi...
@(Jgalt) Actually let's extend that to all governors, senators, Justices of the SCOTUS and cabinet officials--and for that matter their masters--[the Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/#6b0830ea7e2f) and the CEO's of the US Fortune 500. If any of them tweet or mention metaculus in an article published under their name or publicly meet with any of the top 100 metaclus partcipants(as mentioned in the New York Times or Washington Post)--that would be big deal in metaculus moving towards becoming established as a recognized decision support tool...

@notany Had the police leadership been following Metaculus, even a 4% risk of a riot meant they needed a lot more preparation/numbers on the scene. They are listening to clowns. The pepper spray and rubber bullets should have started WAY before rioters entered to the senate. This isn't some minor building in Portland. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5752/coup…

@(Jgalt) the First past the post votings system can easily select leaders with little popular base. Condorcet voting is intended to avoid that and is demonstrated [here](https://civs.cs.cornell.edu/) Part of our job here at Metaculus is to be place where folks with very different ideology can have civil productive discusssions. Just FYI I was a Ralph Nader/Dennis Kucinich/Bernie Sanders Supporter/Campaign volunteer/donor. I suspect you are not, but we have managed to be civil to each other in this context which i think it is important given what is ...
I would like to see the question creation problem be made a little more robust and less demanding on the time of moderators. Currently the process is to post questions in the suggestions thread where they may or may not get input. What i think might be better: add more stages to questions: a) editing only the author and specified metaculus users can see the questin. The author can simply specify the user by name in the comments and they then can read the question and post comments. The question goes to the next stage when the author specifies this...
@(Jgalt) This is textbook narcissistic tendencies. Narcissists cannot admit failure or mistakes. That is one reason these folks lot to be at the center of a cult of personality. Just FYI i have dealt with a close relative with NPD-maybe even worse than DJT(but less severe drug addiction than [Old Saucer eyes](https://medium.com/@DrGJackBrown/body-language-and-medical-analysis-4221-why-are-donald-trumps-pupils-intermittently-so-large-f4d883c8126a) Had Trump compentently dealt with covid-19 he could have had a second term. He could have left someone else ...

I think we need a separate question on other forms of Trump being removed from office: resignation, death, impleachment.

I've heard that 12 GOP senators have just said they would vote to convict if Trump were now impeached again.

longbets.org, predictwise.com and predictit.org are all bet based prediction sites. I think it might be interesting to mirror the items being bet on in these and any other prediction markets here on metaculus. Those sites face regulatory limitations because they involve money that metaculus does not face. Mirroring the items would have some real benefits. it would over time collect data that could be used to compare prediction markets vs. metaculus's voting process(which reminds me a be of the delphi method). When intrade was active, we saw some exam...

I think the issue is not just that events are unlikely but unlikely and important in the sense they are likely to effect the odds of other events.

I'd like some better way to express how that works in metaculus.

@DanielFilan i wrote this because i figured that either a civil war, invasion or major terrorist incident focused on the military would have to trigger this level of casualties. The one of those I see as most likely would be civil war.

"This question asks whether, in the month of July, the number of claims made by Donald Trump and rated by politifact as “Pants on Fire” will be equal to, or greater than, five plus the number of claims made by Joe Biden and rated by politifact as “Pants on fire” over the same period." Trump had 4 "pants on fire" incidents in June. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/list/?category=&ruling=pants-fire&speaker=donald-trump So far I see none for July. Biden has not had any since February. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/list/?category=&ruling=...
Public Figure predictive accuracy. I would like a way to associate public statements made by public figures with an account that would get a Brier score just like other players. that might involve display of the quote and a voting process to associate that with predictions. The public figure could if they wish override the community interpretation with their own, on the record predictions. If we had this, we could also create a metaculus driven Political Action Commmittee(PAC) that could focust campaign funds into public figures with the most demonstra...

One important item missing from the current vaccination claims: Will any country or list of countries make a Coronavirus Vaccine cumpulsory for some portion of their citizens?

That has happened with other vaccines, but usually after they have been around for a while.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_p…

If that is done in the time frame of this context, IMHO it would be a big deal

@Jgalt i have starteda question draft relatd to this.

This question asks: will the winner of the US presidential election win while obtaining less than 50% of the popular vote?

Donald Trump, George W Bush and Bill Clinton all won the presidency with less than 50% of the popular vote. Will that happen again in 2020?

@cd @AABoyles @Sylvain @Anthony One idea I have had here: a) let folks rank various options b) let them draw a curve that connects the lowest to the highest probability and fills in the blanks

That would let folks make a LOT of predictions relatively rapidly.

That becomes especially important if we want to greatly expand the number of conjunct/conditional questions which I think is in the future of Metaculus.

@2e10e122 another important part of the question: how will the typical GOP donor feel about folks who do not vote to convict? We already have some wealthy interests backing away from Trump

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/12/956145776/forb…