I think this question deserves being part of a series, that closes every 10 years so folks can see how predictions in this respect change over time.
Besides individuals, i think we ought to extend "public figures" to include publications, think tanks and eventually organizations.
I think this is all a big step in the right direction.
Also, this underscores the needs for specific subject area scores(i.e. foreign policy, economic policy, social policy). We want to make sure we are comparing public figures in roughly the same areas.
My read on the current research: overall predictive ability may not vary as much as specific areas of "blind spots".
https://ballotpedia.org/Incumbents_defeated_i… In recent decades congressional reelection rates have varied between 85.4% and 96.9% (that refers to the % of house reps seeking reelection that actually get another term). In the wake of C-19 it might be interesting to look at how that varies in the 2020 and 2024 election seasons.
How many states will still permit legal abortion in 2030? How many states will still permit same sex marriage?
This sounds really interesting.
@notany Had the police leadership been following Metaculus, even a 4% risk of a riot meant they needed a lot more preparation/numbers on the scene. They are listening to clowns. The pepper spray and rubber bullets should have started WAY before rioters entered to the senate. This isn't some minor building in Portland. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5752/coup…
The way this question is worded it means someone frozen by 2030 being revived by 2060. I see that as rather unlikely. However, as the freezing date increaes and the date to revival increases it will increase. My guess is that by 2150 there will be the demonstrated ability to freeze someone and revive them.
i think we need some questions on US life expectancy
Will us life expectancy fall in 2022? What will us ilfe expectancy be in 2030? When will us life expectancy increase for 3 years in a row? When will the gap between the us and peer countries return to its pre-2018 level?
this article explains some of what is going on:
I would like to get notifications for selected questions if the ratio of my prediction to the community or metaculus predictions changes beyond some factor.
I think we need a separate question on other forms of Trump being removed from office: resignation, death, impleachment.
I've heard that 12 GOP senators have just said they would vote to convict if Trump were now impeached again.
I think the issue is not just that events are unlikely but unlikely and important in the sense they are likely to effect the odds of other events.
I'd like some better way to express how that works in metaculus.
@DanielFilan i wrote this because i figured that either a civil war, invasion or major terrorist incident focused on the military would have to trigger this level of casualties. The one of those I see as most likely would be civil war.
I'd like to see a blog with these kinds of fortified essays, perhaps selected by some kind of careful, distributed process.
I've done a few videos on youtube related to Metaculus questions. There are a lot of financial youtubers briniging in substantial money with much poorer analysis then we see here on metaculus.