I think this question deserves being part of a series, that closes every 10 years so folks can see how predictions in this respect change over time.
https://ballotpedia.org/Incumbents_defeated_i… In recent decades congressional reelection rates have varied between 85.4% and 96.9% (that refers to the % of house reps seeking reelection that actually get another term). In the wake of C-19 it might be interesting to look at how that varies in the 2020 and 2024 election seasons.
This sounds really interesting.
@notany Had the police leadership been following Metaculus, even a 4% risk of a riot meant they needed a lot more preparation/numbers on the scene. They are listening to clowns. The pepper spray and rubber bullets should have started WAY before rioters entered to the senate. This isn't some minor building in Portland. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5752/coup…
I think we need a separate question on other forms of Trump being removed from office: resignation, death, impleachment.
I've heard that 12 GOP senators have just said they would vote to convict if Trump were now impeached again.
I think the issue is not just that events are unlikely but unlikely and important in the sense they are likely to effect the odds of other events.
I'd like some better way to express how that works in metaculus.
@DanielFilan i wrote this because i figured that either a civil war, invasion or major terrorist incident focused on the military would have to trigger this level of casualties. The one of those I see as most likely would be civil war.
One important item missing from the current vaccination claims: Will any country or list of countries make a Coronavirus Vaccine cumpulsory for some portion of their citizens?
That has happened with other vaccines, but usually after they have been around for a while.
If that is done in the time frame of this context, IMHO it would be a big deal
@Jgalt i have starteda question draft relatd to this.
This question asks: will the winner of the US presidential election win while obtaining less than 50% of the popular vote?
Donald Trump, George W Bush and Bill Clinton all won the presidency with less than 50% of the popular vote. Will that happen again in 2020?
That would let folks make a LOT of predictions relatively rapidly.
That becomes especially important if we want to greatly expand the number of conjunct/conditional questions which I think is in the future of Metaculus.