I would love if it I could find a relative Brier/log score on my profile. I just found @isinlor's spreadsheet, and it was interesting seeing how my points per question stacked up against those of others, but the results are obviously biased against those who choose difficult questions. I'd love a relative score that compares the quality of my forecasts against those who forecasted on the same question at a similar time.
How accurate should antibody tests be to resolve this question postively? There is a good chance they could generate a lot of false positives (even if it's 95% or 99% accurate).*
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Questions I'm struggling with for answering this:
- how likely is it that the peak has passed prior to this quarter? - will there be a sharp decline in cases after the peak has passed? - if so, will more cases be confirmed (due to a slower growth rate, and greater testing capacity)? - will the bulk of the growth take place in developing countries (meaning fewer cases are confirmed)?
Updated from 25% to 65%.
I'm feeling smug that I didn't partake in the Keynesian beauty contest; I thought it might fall apart if something big came out (just not this quickly).
(EDIT: I realise I seem very confident, this is mainly because I think there will be a lack of information and China's concealment will push them towards a positive resolution)
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@dan haha okay that is very helpful, I will update down...
Boom +44, thanks Elon.
Am I missing something here? The community median is 210, but that seems to imply an average error rate of just 0.79%, which seems like a very impressive median estimate (even for 6 years' time)?
@Jgalt I imagine it's the George Floyd protests or nothing. I can't find any estimate that tops the $1-2bn figure Axios reported, and I can't imagine there will be a higher estimate that has the costs concentrated to a 14-day period. It seems like it is very unlikely that this will resolve positively, given that we're now 28% of the way into 2021 and nothing obvious stands out.
Note: I'll win 89 points if this question resolves negatively.
@EvanHarper I suspect people with a positive result may refrain from sharing it, since the question may retrospectively resolve early (gaining them fewer points). Therefore, they'd be better off if someone else - who got tested later - resolved the question positively.
Police stations and schools on fire? The third criteria seems like it's more like to be met than not, given the President seems intent on escalating the situation.
White people in the UK are mad about this, so I can't imagine what it's like to be part of the communities that are directly affected by this situation. I don't think this will fizzle out particularly quickly; something needs to change and the current administration certainly aren't keen on that.
@Pshyeah oh yeah that makes sense - apologies (I'm new here)!