@JurijZucker wrote:

@gjm wrote:

@Jgalt I'm not sure there's much value in attempting to have a serious rational discussion with someone who thinks "human genes are degrading (social justice, equality)" is a coherent, never mind plausible, claim.

I have a right to my opinion!

Yes, but http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_are…

— edited by pranomostro

How would you feel about a video-conference in-person metaculus hangout sometime this week?

I gather there have been in-person meetups in the Bay Area in the past, and now could be an opportunity to do that for the differently countryed. I you think this is a good idea, I'd propose we use google hangouts or a similar software, but I'd be glad to make a poll.

@tenthkrige About 5: I partially do it because I'd like to live in a world where in a conversation, when I disagree with somebody, I say a probability, they say a probability, and then we exchange brier scores & number of predictions resolved (on $PLATFORM). So I'd know how much I needed to update.

  1. Predict 99%
  2. Start thermonuclear war
  3. ???
  4. MIPs


crossing the median is for losers (it's literally admitting that you were losing).

The state of metaculus, 2020.

Runners are (per [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election%2C_2020#Nominations)) (only declared major candidates from the two major parties): Republican party: * [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump): President of the United States, negative resolution ✘ * [Bill Weld](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Weld): Governor of Massachusetts, positive resolution ✔ Democratic party: * [Michael Bennet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bennet): Senator of Colorado, positive resolution ✔ * [Joe Biden...
# Cryonics Series Metaculus ## Sources ### Similar Probability Estimates * [Cryonics Calculator](https://www.cryonicscalculator.com/) * [Advanced Sheet](https://sheet.zoho.com/sheet/published.do?rid=ezc15aefd640c35304374b5fc72f202e9a39a) * [Overview](https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/published.do?rid=du1z216d6ab4415d44e639822d094d9439ff4) * [Break Cryonics Down](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html) Collection at [Plastination versus Cryonics](https://www.gwern.net/plastination). ### Number of Cryopreserved People * [Alcor lis...

The capacity has been pretty stable around 800-1000 btc since march 2019, I think the community is a bit underconfident on this.

@Sylvain I fondly remember you making really good suggestions of my question proposals. You'll make a great moderator!

— edited by pranomostro

When will humanity be able to use more than 0.0001% of the sun's energy output (one millionth)?

From [here](https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Star-Wars) some information on the past box offices: * May 25, 2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $84,420,489 * Dec 15, 2017 Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… $220,009,584 * Dec 16, 2016 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $155,081,681 * Dec 18, 2015 Star Wars Ep. VII: The Forc… $247,966,675 * Aug 15, 2008 Star Wars: The Clone Wars $14,611,273 * May 19, 2005 Star Wars Ep. III: Revenge … $108,435,841 * May 16, 2002 Star Wars Ep. II: Attack of… $80,027,814 * May 19, 1999 Star Wars Ep. I: The Phanto… $64,810,97...

Insect numbers are falling, how much further will they decline?

See also here.

— edited by pranomostro

My process at the moment is to generate a view minus the community prediction (by hiding it until I've made a prediction), then I go and work on some other stuff & revisit the question later, often updating towards the community (though almost never completely). I guess this is sort of like trying to reach [reflective equilibrium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_equilibrium) between myself & metaculus (though the community doesn't always do the same amount of updating towards me as I do towards them – uncooperative bastards). I'm always happy w...

Linear extrapolation gives ~240K predictions for january 2024, I'm a bit more optimistic (data).

— edited by pranomostro

@Jotto I'm really interested in how all the noise will affect the metaculus prediction.

I don't know enough about the US political system to be sure about the classification (the exact difference between a bill, an act, a resolution and a law), but the baseline seems to be quite low for passed resolutions.

Edit: "Quite low" mostly means ≤10%.

— edited by pranomostro


Not just that, a second AIDS patient has been cured. Maybe also worth a question (as in "When will the hundreth person be cured of AIDS?")

I feel like there's many different ways of awarding points to things here: Plusses/minusses for questions, smileys for comments, tachyons for various activities and finally MIPs for questions. The former three currently don't have much of an effect, and could be aggregated into a "community MIP score", which would be different from the forecasting MIP score.

Maybe the community score could give the ability to create a discussion thread (or that was always an option, and I just haven't been able to find it).

— edited by pranomostro

This is really silly, but at the bottom of the page, the copyright year hasn't been updated to 2020 yet.