@JurijZucker wrote:
@gjm wrote:
@Jgalt I'm not sure there's much value in attempting to have a serious rational discussion with someone who thinks "human genes are degrading (social justice, equality)" is a coherent, never mind plausible, claim.
I have a right to my opinion!
Yes, but http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_are…
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How would you feel about a video-conference in-person metaculus hangout sometime this week?
I gather there have been in-person meetups in the Bay Area in the past, and now could be an opportunity to do that for the differently countryed. I you think this is a good idea, I'd propose we use google hangouts or a similar software, but I'd be glad to make a poll.
@tenthkrige About 5: I partially do it because I'd like to live in a world where in a conversation, when I disagree with somebody, I say a probability, they say a probability, and then we exchange brier scores & number of predictions resolved (on $PLATFORM). So I'd know how much I needed to update.
crossing the median is for losers (it's literally admitting that you were losing).
The state of metaculus, 2020.
The capacity has been pretty stable around 800-1000 btc since march 2019, I think the community is a bit underconfident on this.
@Sylvain I fondly remember you making really good suggestions of my question proposals. You'll make a great moderator!
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When will humanity be able to use more than 0.0001% of the sun's energy output (one millionth)?
Insect numbers are falling, how much further will they decline?
See also here.
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Linear extrapolation gives ~240K predictions for january 2024, I'm a bit more optimistic (data).
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This comment was moved from How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by December 31, 2023? to this question group. Learn more about Question groups
@Jotto I'm really interested in how all the noise will affect the metaculus prediction.
I don't know enough about the US political system to be sure about the classification (the exact difference between a bill, an act, a resolution and a law), but the baseline seems to be quite low for passed resolutions.
Edit: "Quite low" mostly means ≤10%.
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Not just that, a second AIDS patient has been cured. Maybe also worth a question (as in "When will the hundreth person be cured of AIDS?")
I feel like there's many different ways of awarding points to things here: Plusses/minusses for questions, smileys for comments, tachyons for various activities and finally MIPs for questions. The former three currently don't have much of an effect, and could be aggregated into a "community MIP score", which would be different from the forecasting MIP score.
Maybe the community score could give the ability to create a discussion thread (or that was always an option, and I just haven't been able to find it).
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This is really silly, but at the bottom of the page, the copyright year hasn't been updated to 2020 yet.
