Will >Dec, 2023 resolve ambiguously? And also: Putin raised readiness levels on 27 February, not January

might turn out to be sooner than we thought if this question about ftx default will resolve true (1.3% on metaculus prediction), same for the related question about worst community prediction

— edited by paleink

https://www.swiftcentre.org/will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon/ > While the forecasters considered a broad range of factors that affect escalatory scenarios (from Russian military doctrine to the chance of nuclear launch orders being disobeyed), we have not identified any highly probable scenarios that turn the possibility of nuclear escalation into an inevitability. However, our forecasters clearly associate major losses in Russian-controlled territory with a higher chance of nuclear escalation. Ukrainian recapture of cities in the Kherson and Zaporizhia ...

It has already happened, no? At 12th december 2022 there were >250000 cases on OWID graph due to them switching to new methodology