@fianxu 10.000, 50.000, 100.000, 500.000, 1.000.000 civilian deaths Invasion of Moldova End of conflict within 1, 3, 5, 10, 20 years (including insurgency)

Updating to 99% from 98% on 18th. You can't, especially with more than 200k troops on the border, deliver an ultimatum that says:

• stop joining a group that wants to protect you
• demilitarize
• accept that we stole a piece of land the size of Belgium from you

and be expecting anything else

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Just explicitly said will sign mutual defence treaties with LNR/LDR, and that if Ukraine doesn't immediately stop the (fake) hostilities, what happens will be their own fault

"Peacekeeping mission" just announced, unpredictable as always.

I'm sure they will peacekeep all the way to lviv

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14958716…

Israel seems like the sort of country that would be both privy to some amount of US intelligence, and have good intelligence of their own. Fact that they are talking about a very narrow window for Israelis to leave Ukraine seems concerning.

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1492889…

@crunchwrapoDeLaFuente if they try and recapture some of the land that they claim but don't control, yes

@mishasamin I will be careful with my wording, but trying to base your percentage on an assumption of reason and logic that would be familiar to yourself, on decisions made by a despot in a falling empire, who is obsessed with history, and thinks the greatest tragedy for the Russian empire of the 20th century was the loss of power via the fall of the soviet union, rather than the 35 million citizens killed in WW2, is probably not a wise decision.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/149…

Apparently Russian embassy is burning things - preparations for leaving completely?

@BrunoYammine no, this isn't it. He threatened considerably more, and basically said Ukraine would want to nuke Russia and is a mistake of history. I don't think that's what you say if you just want to freeze the conflict. It was a small justification to the Russian people as to why they will lose tens of thousands of troops

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@(tryingToPredictFuture) I don't think a refugee crisis is as big of a deal as you are imagining. Nobody wants to say it out loud, but Ukrainian refugees are _far_ more politically palatable than middle easterners. (I don't agree with the idea, but that is what it is). Poland for example was kicking and screaming about having to take relatively minor numbers of refugees from the ME compared to the 1-2 million Ukrainians they've taken in since 2014. The other variable you're missing is that while the $ value of Russian exports to the EU is low, if the g...

Absolute best case scenario, is: * Russia formally recognises the two republics * Provides them with military support, aiding all of their forced conscripts to retake the "historic" borders of the two statelets * Uses air power to destroy much of the Ukrainian military infrastructure * doesn't try and take major cities outside those zones Question still resolves as yes, as it would involve pushing Ukraine further west I don't think it's likely though, as then you'll just have an even more hostile Ukraine I'm pretty sure this is going to turn into a ...

@ClayGraubard he's also been granted permission to use as many troops as he wants wherever he wants https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1496155…

BREAKING: Head of #LPR says "I call every male person able to carry arms, to take arms" https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1494676541…

Paraphrasing, but one of the sections was:

• Ukraine was invented by Lenin
• Ukraine is removing monuments to him in a process of decommunization
• They shouldn't just do this half way, we will show them what true decommunization means for Ukraine

@mumpskin which is what I was saying the other day, this is a mad despot, he does not care if half a million Russians have to die to take Ukraine, he is righting a historical wrong. History doesn't care about 0.5 million dead

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/14954…

NOTAM over Azov Sea starting at midnight

https://twitter.com/MrFrantarelli/status/1495…

I suppose connected to landing/war ships entering the Azov sea

— edited by oracleofferentari

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14943125…

Russia has reiterated it's ultimatum, promising a military-technical response if NATO does not remove all troops/equipment from CEE, and rule out further expansion via a legally binding mechanism

@bc219 I'm not suggesting anyone be censored, but I'm not a moral relativist. He can have and express his opinion, but I think his is wrong, so yes I think everyone here should support Ukraine

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@ersatz so when you pay taxes you don't have to support a brutal dictatorial regime that's invading a country

https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1496177196…

Russia evacuating all of it's diplomatic staff from Ukraine