Just flagging that the process of resignation does take a few months: - Theresa May got a vote of no confidence [22 April 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May#Announcement_of_resignation) (non-binding) - Theresa May [announced her resignation on 24 May 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May#Announcement_of_resignation) - She [remained PM until 23 July 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May). Suggest Boris would probably need to resign before 1 April for this to resolve negativ...
Holden Karnofsky of Open Philanthropy [provides an estimate](https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/) for when he thinks "transformative AI" will arrive: > I estimate that there is more than a 10% chance we'll see transformative AI within 15 years (by 2036); a ~50% chance we'll see it within 40 years (by 2060); and a ~2/3 chance we'll see it this century (by 2100). Worth noting that "transformative AI" (TAI) is importantly different from the definition of AGI here - TAI refers to the effect the system will have on the world and no...

A good article in the New Statesman today about current polling

Macron is consistently polling first in first-round votes and fares well against almost all potential second-round candidates. However, Zemmour is gaining a lot of momentum before he's even announced himself as a candidate (he recently polled above Le Pen).

Participants in the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge predict ~~500 deaths per week by the start of August (hard to eyeball the graph).

Credit to Nikos Bosse for this work if they're on here!

Foreign Affairs: The Taiwan Temptation - Why Beijing Might Resort to Force

Long article on current threat of invasion. Some worrying indications that the CCP is being strongly pressured to invade soon.

A new paper quite strongly argues that COVID had (two) zoonotic origins in the Huanan market. Twitter thread here.

Geographical clustering of the earliest known COVID-19 cases and the proximity of positive environmental samples to live-animal vendors suggest that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the site of origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.

I don't have the expertise to assess this.

Russia made ground invasions in [2 of the 22 years Putin has been in power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_invasions#2000%E2%80%93present) so my base rate is ~10%. I really don't know how to interpret all the border aggression and alarm. On the one hand, this is what pre-invasion probably looks like (??). On the other, you can read articles like [this in 2016](https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-border) and [this in 2017](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html) and worry th...
The current community guess seems extraordinarily high to me. A few reasons I think it should be lower (my prediction at the time of writing is 10%): 1) We've lost >10% of the human population before and recovered (Black Death, the Toba event) so our prior should be low. 2) Risks from AI are probably more dangerous to us than natural events but the paths to global catastrophe are still highly speculative and unclear. We shouldn't update too strongly towards thinking they are uniquely capable of wiping out >95% of the population (instead of 10-95% or <1...

A good article in the New Statesman today about current polling

Macron is consistently polling first in first-round votes and fares well against almost all potential second-round candidates. However, Zemmour is gaining a lot of momentum before he's even announced himself as a candidate (he recently polled above Le Pen).

The Economist forecast might have already priced this in but the "rally around the flag" effect might be extremely well-timed for Macron, especially since he's been very active in negotiations.

Also hard for the far-right to oppose immigration when the entire EU bloc just unanimously voted to accept Ukranian refugees. Though I can imagine this becoming unpopular in a few months.

Two long pieces on the prospects of China invading Taiwan by The Guardian and Bloomberg.

I think the community prediction is far too high on this one, I'm at 25%. My thinking (feedback very welcome!): [Previous forecasting efforts](https://goodjudgment.com/superforecaster-perspectives-on-a-no-deal-brexit/) suggest using 'union break-ups' as a base rate. For example, during the break-up of the Soviet Union, we saw nine 'no deal' departures, five 'arranged' departures and one 'remain' (Russia). I think this implies a base rate of ~60% no deal. However, another base rate option is EU negotiations. The EU are very good at negotiating trade dea...

The Economist's new model has Trump at 18% chance of re-election

EDIT: I initially wrote 20%. Subtitle is 1-in-5 but text says Biden has 82% chance of victory

— edited by olliebase22

@olliebase22 Pun not intended but I'm glad it happened.

Thankfully, deaths seem to have peaked and we should probably expect a decline very soon. I'm at 5%.

A huge polling lead for the Conservatives on the back of the successful vaccine rollout. I do expect this to subside before the next election so I'm not updating much but this seems like the place to flag the news.

CON: 45% (+4) LAB: 32% (-4) GRN: 7% (-) LDEM: 6% (+1) REFUK: 3% (-)