Just flagging that the process of resignation does take a few months: - Theresa May got a vote of no confidence [22 April 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May#Announcement_of_resignation) (non-binding) - Theresa May [announced her resignation on 24 May 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May#Announcement_of_resignation) - She [remained PM until 23 July 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May). Suggest Boris would probably need to resign before 1 April for this to resolve negativ...

A good article in the New Statesman today about current polling

Macron is consistently polling first in first-round votes and fares well against almost all potential second-round candidates. However, Zemmour is gaining a lot of momentum before he's even announced himself as a candidate (he recently polled above Le Pen).

Participants in the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge predict ~~500 deaths per week by the start of August (hard to eyeball the graph).

Credit to Nikos Bosse for this work if they're on here!

Foreign Affairs: The Taiwan Temptation - Why Beijing Might Resort to Force

Long article on current threat of invasion. Some worrying indications that the CCP is being strongly pressured to invade soon.

Russia made ground invasions in [2 of the 22 years Putin has been in power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_invasions#2000%E2%80%93present) so my base rate is ~10%. I really don't know how to interpret all the border aggression and alarm. On the one hand, this is what pre-invasion probably looks like (??). On the other, you can read articles like [this in 2016](https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-border) and [this in 2017](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html) and worry th...
Holden Karnofsky of Open Philanthropy [provides an estimate](https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/) for when he thinks "transformative AI" will arrive: > I estimate that there is more than a 10% chance we'll see transformative AI within 15 years (by 2036); a ~50% chance we'll see it within 40 years (by 2060); and a ~2/3 chance we'll see it this century (by 2100). Worth noting that "transformative AI" (TAI) is importantly different from the definition of AGI here - TAI refers to the effect the system will have on the world and no...

Two long pieces on the prospects of China invading Taiwan by The Guardian and Bloomberg.

I think the community prediction is far too high on this one, I'm at 25%. My thinking (feedback very welcome!): [Previous forecasting efforts](https://goodjudgment.com/superforecaster-perspectives-on-a-no-deal-brexit/) suggest using 'union break-ups' as a base rate. For example, during the break-up of the Soviet Union, we saw nine 'no deal' departures, five 'arranged' departures and one 'remain' (Russia). I think this implies a base rate of ~60% no deal. However, another base rate option is EU negotiations. The EU are very good at negotiating trade dea...

The Economist's new model has Trump at 18% chance of re-election

EDIT: I initially wrote 20%. Subtitle is 1-in-5 but text says Biden has 82% chance of victory

— edited by olliebase22

@olliebase22 Pun not intended but I'm glad it happened.

Thankfully, deaths seem to have peaked and we should probably expect a decline very soon. I'm at 5%.

A huge polling lead for the Conservatives on the back of the successful vaccine rollout. I do expect this to subside before the next election so I'm not updating much but this seems like the place to flag the news.

CON: 45% (+4) LAB: 32% (-4) GRN: 7% (-) LDEM: 6% (+1) REFUK: 3% (-)

Would anyone be interested in a short-fuse question about whether measures will be in place before 25th or 31st Dec? This q doesn't really capture the likelihood of imminent restrictions which I expect people care about more.

@johnnycaffeine I get this feeling sometimes but I think this kind of technical comment helps Metaculites write more precise questions in the future and that's a helpful contribution.

A comment from Vitalik Buterin I found interesting:

Paul Graham: "Why do Betfair's odds imply that Trump has a 37% chance of winning, while Fivethirtyeight says he has an 18% chance? Why the divergence?"

Vitalik: "And if you say "oh betfair is hard to use" then Augur shows Trump at 40% and that's accessible to anyone with crypto...

My interpretation is that there's a 20% chance of an "outside the model" victory, ie. ballot manipulation with court rubber stamp"