Macron is consistently polling first in first-round votes and fares well against almost all potential second-round candidates. However, Zemmour is gaining a lot of momentum before he's even announced himself as a candidate (he recently polled above Le Pen).
Long article on current threat of invasion. Some worrying indications that the CCP is being strongly pressured to invade soon.
961 employees. A steady increase, if anything.
The Economist's new model has Trump at 18% chance of re-election
EDIT: I initially wrote 20%. Subtitle is 1-in-5 but text says Biden has 82% chance of victory
— edited by olliebase22
@olliebase22 Pun not intended but I'm glad it happened.
Thankfully, deaths seem to have peaked and we should probably expect a decline very soon. I'm at 5%.
A huge polling lead for the Conservatives on the back of the successful vaccine rollout. I do expect this to subside before the next election so I'm not updating much but this seems like the place to flag the news.
CON: 45% (+4) LAB: 32% (-4) GRN: 7% (-) LDEM: 6% (+1) REFUK: 3% (-)
Would anyone be interested in a short-fuse question about whether measures will be in place before 25th or 31st Dec? This q doesn't really capture the likelihood of imminent restrictions which I expect people care about more.
Macron: 55% Le Pen: 45%
@johnnycaffeine I get this feeling sometimes but I think this kind of technical comment helps Metaculites write more precise questions in the future and that's a helpful contribution.
A comment from Vitalik Buterin I found interesting:
Paul Graham: "Why do Betfair's odds imply that Trump has a 37% chance of winning, while Fivethirtyeight says he has an 18% chance? Why the divergence?"
Vitalik: "And if you say "oh betfair is hard to use" then Augur shows Trump at 40% and that's accessible to anyone with crypto...
My interpretation is that there's a 20% chance of an "outside the model" victory, ie. ballot manipulation with court rubber stamp"