@liljaycup Hodges seems pretty unimpressive to me - at the end of that interview he says he signed onto a letter calling for a no-fly-zone because “we have to do something”, which doesn’t inspire confidence in his reasoning. His comments about the huge Russian convoy were also contradicted by Michael Kofman in yesterday’s War on the Rocks podcast. Wouldn’t be that surprised if he’s just become a lazy talking head since leaving the military.

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Russian commanders have been given their orders to invade, according to US intel: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-i… Assuming this means tonight/tomorrow night most likely. If they don’t go in the next 48 hours I’ll revise my prediction from 95% to 75% or so.

@BrunoYammine Looks like the final stages of preparation for invasion are in progress. E.g. the links I posted 4 comments down, and this on the cyber-attack of Ukrainian govt websites: https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/149362634…

Staying at 80% after the Scholz-Zelensky press conference (https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/02/15/russia-offers-an-olive-branch-but-still-wields-the-sword) due to reports that Russian troops are moving to forward positions: https://twitter.com/jstalnaker1/status/1493314510354096133?s=20&t=F_uqk1nnznFtJGnS8WewBA. In general I trust Putin's actions more than his words - sending provocateurs, setting up in-depth field preparations for invasion and now moving to a maximum readiness stance all seem more likely to be genuine pre-invasion steps than part ...

@(mumpskin) Agreed. I’ve been shocked by how much of a hardline stance the Ukrainian govt is taking - if anything the threat of invasion has pushed them further toward the West in search of military assistance and economic deterrence. The current situation doesn’t seem at all compatible with Putin extracting concessions by bluffing, in my view. For one thing, US intel is absolutely convinced now that Russia is planning to invade. Making confident public statements like this when they knew everybody was going to say, “What about Iraq’s WMDs” tells me they...

I want to summarize my recent thinking on this question, and hopefully writing it down will make everything clearer to me too. 1. I still think invasion is likely, but my forecast of 90% is only to take advantage of a positive resolution in the next few days. I'm closer to 80% in reality and will likely move my prediction on the site to 50-60% in a week if it hasn't happened by then. 2. I overestimated the importance of recent Russian military buildup, when it's been continuing for months now. I expected a 30%+ chance of invasion last night so need to ...

@oracleofferentari I think this is the prelude. There's no need to do a massive military buildup if Russia just wanted to put troops in the rebel areas - Russia has always been able to beat the Russian military head-on and Ukraine wouldn't have pushed back against Russian troops specifically out of fear that Putin would escalate. Putin's apocalyptic messaging combined with the large mobilization leads me to think the invasion is coming, maybe with Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops (either faked, or real after Russian attacks) as the cassus belli.

Map of Russian artillery fire today along Ukraine’s Eastern border, via the Latvian defense minister: https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1494356445088915469?s=20&t=U1jskQm0_vwAfARi4rEZIg If anyone has context on the normal tempo of attacks it’d be v helpful. This plus Biden leaving means we could be on for an invasion. Additional context from Blinken at the UN: "Russian ground troops, aircraft, ships are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days. We don’t know precisely how things will play out. Here is what can expect to unfold....

Would recommend linking to the weak AGI question more prominently and changing the title wording to say "After a weak AGI is created"

@(Bookie) On some level this can’t be true - if the US says “We are positive Russia is about to attack” and Russia doesn’t, everyone watching should discount them next time. People bring up the “Iraq has WMDs” intel failure 20 years ago whenever US intel says anything today. But the specificity of the intel this time contrasts very favorably with what happened then. The Biden admin is sharing things like, “Putin hasn’t decided whether or not to attack, but is leaving his options open. Ok, he’s decided to attack. An invasion will be coming soon. And now h...

Moved from 70 -> 80% on news: Ukraine's foreign minister says Ukraine's course toward joining NATO "remains unchanged", which was one of Putin's main motives for an invasion. And US intelligence says Russia "clearly advancing their ability to invade": https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-…

@Jgalt Yeah, this seals it for me. Doesn't make any sense as part of a bluff (when Putin's messaging is that they're starting to withdraw), OR under a genuine withdrawal of forces. Only reason to do it is you're about to invade. It lets the Russians move tanks and troops where Ukraine wasn't expecting.

Edit: also fits with Putin still deciding whether or not to go. I'd be surprised if he hasn't made up his mind by this point, though.

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