*Disclaimer: I have no expertise in a subject matter and I have no idea whether the following provides complete picture:* ## Base rates [FDA guidance](https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research) Phase 2: Approximately 33% of drugs move to the next phase [Clinical success rates:](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845) Oncology P2 to P3: 32.7% ## Studies [BNT113](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04534205) Estimated Primary Completion Date : May ...

Bloomberg: Russia Credit Insurance Shows 99% Chance of Default Within Year

  • Credit default swaps jump after dollar bonds paid in rubles
  • Securities’ terms didn’t provide a ruble payment option
@(EvanHarper) Most voters of Petr Pavel, Danuše Nerudová and others apart from Bašta/Středula/Zima are likely to rally against Babiš in the second round. [Bookmakers](https://www.ifortuna.cz/sazeni/prezidentske-volby-cr-2023) give following chances to top candidates: Candidate | Yes | No --- | --- | --- Petr Pavel | 2.2 | 1.6 Danuše Nerudová | 2.7 | 1.41 Andrej Babiš | 4 | 1.2 Interpret as for 1 CZK bet, you will get X CZK if condition is met (e.g. 2.2 CZK if Petr Pavel wins and 4 CZK if Andrej Babis wins). Everything is possible though and followi...

I am updating to 6.8 - 7.2 mil. :

  • there are 62 days left
  • 6,566,610 deaths
  • worst peaks were 15,000 deaths per day, average highs somewhere around 10,000 deaths per day
  • as of now there are ca 1,500 deaths per day

Community seems to be too high. I would recommend to review the predictions.

@tomchivers [The report has been published](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry) However, it is not unambiguously clear to me how this should resolve. > In this second report, we’ve reached five fusion companies that we did not know about or could not contact when we did the last report, as well as eight companies that have come on the scene in the last year. There are still certainly some companies that we have missed either because we do not yet know about them, or because they declined to participate, though we believe...
[Useful thread by Michael Lin](https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1511042725495279621) which describes that Omicron boosters will be a challenge at least in US due to FDA regulatory requirements on manufacturing consistency, which effectively means that Pfizer (or others) would have to dedicate existing facility for booster approval which would mean that they sacrifice ability to produce existing vaccine in such facility. Note the example with Novavax - they did well in trials but there is no approval in US yet due to large manufacturing requirement...


Former President Donald Trump's new media venture plans to launch its social media app Truth Social on Feb. 21, according to an Apple Inc App Store listing.

Solana is now ranked 15. Dropping to 30% from 73%. Coin is suffering a lot due to apparent collapse of FTX. It may still recover but it will be difficult to jump over stablecoins if whole market is down.

@Gartanon 50 new forecasters have forecasted on the question in the last month, so it seems likely that their predictions have been lower than previous community mean.

Personally, I have increased to 35% at least for the time being Ukrainians are progressing. I think it will be very difficult to supply and defend Crimea if there is a breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia / South Kherson region which is possible.

Strongest argument against is that Western allies might be less supportive of taking back of Crimea.

— edited by norick

@Jgalt You can see latest polls by poll agencies Median and Ipsos here.

Today was the last day when polls were allowed to be published (not sure if only for the first round or for whole elections).

Bookmakers rates are however still available - Babiš improved from the table I posted earlier to 3.15 but Petr Pavel is leading by a strong margin.

— edited by norick


Yes, it is outside of scope of the question. It would be quite tricky if any of the stock in the scope went private :-)

— edited by norick


Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach expects an omicron vaccine in September - but at the same time warns of a possible "killer variant" of the corona virus

Increasing prediction to 77%. There is a lot of vagueness in the statement as he also says that vaccine against Delta is available, which I do not believe is true.

New variant - B.1.640.2 detected in France:


Their analysis revealed 46 mutations and 37 deletions resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions. Fourteen amino acid substitutions, including N501Y and E484K, and 9 deletions are located in the spike protein.

— edited by norick


If Erdoğan loses the 2023 presidential election, will he concede defeat and abdicate the presidency?

This question will resolve as Yes if Erdoğan does not win the 2023 presidential elections and is still president on December 31, 2023.

This question will resolve as No if Erdoğan does not win the 2023 presidential elections and is not president on December 31, 2023.

This seems to be contradictory. I would think it should resolve Yes if he loses and is no longer the president and vice-versa?

September inflation is 22.2%

It seems that there is an opportunity to update for the community.

[French nuclear regulator halts assembly of huge fusion reactor](https://www.science.org/content/article/french-nuclear-regulator-halts-assembly-huge-fusion-reactor) > France’s nuclear regulator has ordered ITER, an international fusion energy project, to hold off on assembling its gigantic reactor until officials address safety concerns. This month, the ITER Organization was expecting to get the green light to begin to weld together the 11-meter-tall steel sections that make up the doughnut-shaped reactor, called a tokamak. But on 25 January, France’s N...