1. Taiwan Semiconductor supplies 80-90% of the worlds 7 nanometer or better chips. Blockading Taiwan will crash world markets. Apple, Nvidia and other big tech depend upon those chips. Big Tech is half of the Nasdaq and about 30% of the S&P. big tech would drop in half or worse with a massive disruption in critical chips. Apple CEO Tim Cook, other CEOS and the heads of Vanguard etc... would be on the phone to Biden , Pelosi, Schumer telling them..what are we paying you for. The chips must flow. 20 year old auto chip shortage caused $200 billion per yea...

Institute for Study of War analysis for what an invasion would look like. Russia would try to take the East up to the Dnipro river and Odessa.

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/defaul…

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/nationa…

Insurance experts indicate if some large retailers have big claims, then the damage costs will escalate. Give example of $2+ billion damages from riots in Chile in 2019.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/chile-announc…

Russia cyberattacks Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/expect-w…

Russia is moving more military gear https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-mor…

Saboteurs sent in to Ukraine. Believe that false flag ops will be created to justify invasion https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14…

It looks likely that the invasion will start this weekend

— edited by nextbigfuture

This needs to be shorter-fused. Can we get it active today. Because the attack could be this weekend

— edited by nextbigfuture

@casens @admins @kievalet Ok even Russia now admits to 5937+ Russian soldiers dead. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-partial-mobilisation-will-see-300000-drafted-defence-minister-2022-09-21/ Confirmed by name other source 6496 Ukraine 50000+ Ukraine said 10k Ukrainian soldiers dead June, 2022 https://www.laprensalatina.com/ukraine-says-10000-soldiers-killed-since-start-of-russian-invasion/ Russia says 100k+ Ukraine soldiers dead A few thousand more July-Sept. Donetsk PR forces 3,069 killed Luhansk PR forces 500–600 killed UN civilia...

@(nextbigfuture) Also, remember that Russian Ukraine war? There was the troubles that Russia had making a contested crossing of the Dnipro river. A regiment blown up trying to cross. The river is 200-1200 meters wide. Taiwan Strait is 100 times wider. China is going to make that crossing of 100 times wider than Dnipro and get the size of force that is 3 to 4 times of the current Russian army forces that is currently in Ukraine onto Taiwan alive. They need to get across 4 to 5 times the initial 130000 Allied troops on D-Day. Dday had 130000 troops fac...

the recall is getting close enough that Facebook is not accepting recall Gavin ads.

I would not have predicted that there would be no official results. They are saying that Iowa results indefinitely delayed. They will not be able to put out undisputed results. Biden is forcing an investigation. Biden being below 15% threshold would seem to be why the Iowa caucus got torpedoed.

Massive incompetence does not work as an explanation. Manual processes should work but just slower. This seems DNC trying to prevent Biden from imploding.

@nextbigfuture well she beat the number 2 seed in 3 sets. She is still dangerous

Putin and the Russian military can grind forward but they have not established complete air superiority. They have major logistical problems. They did not maintain the tires for their offroad vehicles. This is why the vehicles are almost all on roads. Any siege and attack on the major cities (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa) will take more than 3 weeks. They have not even established a clear perimeter. Kyiv has a 60 mile perimeter. Ukraine is muddy now and the resistance is flooding key areas by releasing reservoirs. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/03/logistic...

the Institute for the Study of War provides better assessments. Ukraine holding up and slowing advances. Kyiv paratroopers were killed

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder…

Does growing trees count? There are estimates that it costs 40 cents per ton to remove CO2 using trees. Others debate this at $20-50 per ton. https://theconversation.com/exaggerating-how-much-co-can-be-absorbed-by-tree-planting-risks-deterring-crucial-climate-action-120170 There are several companies using drones to plant trees https://www.fastcompany.com/90504789/these-drones-can-plant-40000-trees-in-a-month-by-2028-theyll-have-planted-1-billion#:~:text=Flash%20Forest's%20drones%20can%20plant%20trees%20a%20lot%20faster%20than%20humans.&text=Flash%20Fo...

@admins The point scoring needs some improvement. I was at 98% Trump will get back on Twitter before 2024 for over 6 months and get 33 points but for a few hours I can be part of the crowd betting on the Elon-Trump Twitter poll and piling in at 51.5 to 52.0% to get 45 points with 11 hours left. When it was at 52.7% and mildly dropping. Getting something right for a few hours with almost zero chance for a wave to change a poll that already had 12 million votes vs making calls with significant uncertainty 6-10 months out. And making a bolder call where be...

ISW assessment March 23 - Weeks to months for Russia regain offensive momentum. They are digging in defensive positions. Long bloody stalemate. If the death rates slow down to 5X to 10X of Crimea. 10-30k deaths per year (50-60% russian). Russia will have to keep topping up with 40k-80k new troops per year for killed and wounded. This would be on top of the initial 40k in killed and wounded. There are only about 14.25 million men aged 20-34 in Russia in 2020. To maintain a military of 900,000 Russia would have to increase its militarization rate to 7.79 ...

1. New York 1593 (BLUE) 2. New Jersey 1445 (BLUE) 3. Connecticut 1179 (BLUE) 4. Massachusetts 1109 (BLUE) (forecast +10%) 5. Rhode Island 817 (BLUE) (forecast +20%) District Of Columbia 737 (blue but not a state) 6. Louisiana 655 (RED) 7. Michigan 602 (RED) 8. Illinois 499 (BLUE) 9. Pennsylvania 496 (RED) 10. Maryland 493 (BLUE) 11. Delaware 435 (BLUE) 12. Indiana 363 (RED) (forecast 2X, Would need 3X-4X to pass Massachusetts) 13. Mississippi 307 (RED) (forecast 50% more, Needs to 3.5X-4.5X to pass massachusetts) 14 Colo...

@(RyanBeck) @casens @admins Quoting the Resolution for this question: This question will resolve positively if more than 25,000 people die in the Russo-Ukrainian War during 2022. Deaths may include civilian and military casualties, and should count deaths whose primary cause was from combat with opposing forces. If other countries become involved in this conflict then deaths involving those countries will be included. This question will resolve based on information available on March 1, 2023. The first part of this question cited Wikipedia for the ea...

We are within the projection window where the people who are not already hospitalized are unlikely to die. Very little variability in the high and lows now. No blue state-red state changes in the top 12 (rankings can shift and a different red state could become 12th but the top 12 blue-red mix is locked in.) June 16 - Dec 12 [from Worldometers] 1. New Jersey 2011 was 1445 (BLUE1 was BLUE 2) 2. New York 1824 was 1593 (BLUE2 was BLUE 1) 3. Massachusetts 1640 was 1109 (BLUE3) 4. North Dakota 1512 Red 1 5. Connecticut 1504 was 1179 (BLUE4) 6. Louisian...

Russia could start hitting Kyiv in 24-96 hours. Artillery and other attacks and establish a perimeter has to be done. According to the data on twentieth-century warfare that we've [Foreign Affairs 2016] gathered, the average length of a siege is just under one year (roughly eight months), but the longer a siege drags on, the more it favors the side under siege. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2016-12-07/modern-siege-warfare#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20data%20on,favors%20the%20side%20under%20siege. https://www.understandingwar.org/back...

@(OpenSystem) @casens @RyanBeck @admins BS we don't know and can't figure it out. How many people died in WW2 by year? It was figured out into ranges. Same for every other damned war. There is a high and a low range for each of the categories. Civilian deaths is the UN count at least. The high is the Ukrainian claims. Particularly in Mariupol. Those claims are supposedly the mass graves and the morgue. Russian deaths. The low is the Russian claim. High is the Ukrainian claim. The mid is the US and UK numbers. Ukrainian military deaths. High is Rus...