Institute for Study of War analysis for what an invasion would look like. Russia would try to take the East up to the Dnipro river and Odessa.

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/defaul…

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/nationa…

Insurance experts indicate if some large retailers have big claims, then the damage costs will escalate. Give example of $2+ billion damages from riots in Chile in 2019.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/chile-announc…

Russia cyberattacks Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/expect-w…

Russia is moving more military gear https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-mor…

Saboteurs sent in to Ukraine. Believe that false flag ops will be created to justify invasion https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14…

It looks likely that the invasion will start this weekend

— edited by nextbigfuture

This needs to be shorter-fused. Can we get it active today. Because the attack could be this weekend

— edited by nextbigfuture

the recall is getting close enough that Facebook is not accepting recall Gavin ads.

I would not have predicted that there would be no official results. They are saying that Iowa results indefinitely delayed. They will not be able to put out undisputed results. Biden is forcing an investigation. Biden being below 15% threshold would seem to be why the Iowa caucus got torpedoed.

Massive incompetence does not work as an explanation. Manual processes should work but just slower. This seems DNC trying to prevent Biden from imploding.

Putin and the Russian military can grind forward but they have not established complete air superiority. They have major logistical problems. They did not maintain the tires for their offroad vehicles. This is why the vehicles are almost all on roads. Any siege and attack on the major cities (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa) will take more than 3 weeks. They have not even established a clear perimeter. Kyiv has a 60 mile perimeter. Ukraine is muddy now and the resistance is flooding key areas by releasing reservoirs. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/03/logistic...

the Institute for the Study of War provides better assessments. Ukraine holding up and slowing advances. Kyiv paratroopers were killed

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder…

Does growing trees count? There are estimates that it costs 40 cents per ton to remove CO2 using trees. Others debate this at $20-50 per ton. https://theconversation.com/exaggerating-how-much-co-can-be-absorbed-by-tree-planting-risks-deterring-crucial-climate-action-120170 There are several companies using drones to plant trees https://www.fastcompany.com/90504789/these-drones-can-plant-40000-trees-in-a-month-by-2028-theyll-have-planted-1-billion#:~:text=Flash%20Forest's%20drones%20can%20plant%20trees%20a%20lot%20faster%20than%20humans.&text=Flash%20Fo...

ISW assessment March 23 - Weeks to months for Russia regain offensive momentum. They are digging in defensive positions. Long bloody stalemate. If the death rates slow down to 5X to 10X of Crimea. 10-30k deaths per year (50-60% russian). Russia will have to keep topping up with 40k-80k new troops per year for killed and wounded. This would be on top of the initial 40k in killed and wounded. There are only about 14.25 million men aged 20-34 in Russia in 2020. To maintain a military of 900,000 Russia would have to increase its militarization rate to 7.79 ...

1. New York 1593 (BLUE) 2. New Jersey 1445 (BLUE) 3. Connecticut 1179 (BLUE) 4. Massachusetts 1109 (BLUE) (forecast +10%) 5. Rhode Island 817 (BLUE) (forecast +20%) District Of Columbia 737 (blue but not a state) 6. Louisiana 655 (RED) 7. Michigan 602 (RED) 8. Illinois 499 (BLUE) 9. Pennsylvania 496 (RED) 10. Maryland 493 (BLUE) 11. Delaware 435 (BLUE) 12. Indiana 363 (RED) (forecast 2X, Would need 3X-4X to pass Massachusetts) 13. Mississippi 307 (RED) (forecast 50% more, Needs to 3.5X-4.5X to pass massachusetts) 14 Colo...

We are within the projection window where the people who are not already hospitalized are unlikely to die. Very little variability in the high and lows now. No blue state-red state changes in the top 12 (rankings can shift and a different red state could become 12th but the top 12 blue-red mix is locked in.) June 16 - Dec 12 [from Worldometers] 1. New Jersey 2011 was 1445 (BLUE1 was BLUE 2) 2. New York 1824 was 1593 (BLUE2 was BLUE 1) 3. Massachusetts 1640 was 1109 (BLUE3) 4. North Dakota 1512 Red 1 5. Connecticut 1504 was 1179 (BLUE4) 6. Louisian...

Russia could start hitting Kyiv in 24-96 hours. Artillery and other attacks and establish a perimeter has to be done. According to the data on twentieth-century warfare that we've [Foreign Affairs 2016] gathered, the average length of a siege is just under one year (roughly eight months), but the longer a siege drags on, the more it favors the side under siege. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2016-12-07/modern-siege-warfare#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20data%20on,favors%20the%20side%20under%20siege. https://www.understandingwar.org/back...

This question needs to close earlier. the late closing on the second flight only gave me 2 points for an accurate prediction This needs to close by end of April 2021

June 16 - Oct 18 New Jersey 1801 was 1839 (BLUE1 was BLUE 2) New York 1720 was 1593 (BLUE2 was BLUE 1) Massachusetts 1411 was 1109 (BLUE3) Connecticut 1274 was 1179 (BLUE4) Louisiana 1247 was 655 (RED1) Rhode Island 1087 was 817 (BLUE5) Mississippi 1065 was 307 (RED 2 was RED 5 13th now 7th) District Of Columbia 908 was 737 (blue but not a state) Arizona 800 was 167 (RED3 was RED10) Illinois 746 was 499 (BLUE6) Florida 744 was 120 (RED4 was RED 17) Michigan 733 was 602 (RED5 was RED2) 12th state Georgia 716 was 238 (RED 6 was RED 15) Sout...

this should be closed and resolved

@nextbigfuture The resolution about his having to have less than his current shares needs to not apply if he sells 17 million shares and then gets more shares from his option exercise.

30,000 people are signed up in the US for Moderna Vaccine trials phase 3. 1000 in San Diego. Phase 3 trials start next week

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/health/moderna…

in 2021, the CIA estimated total fertility. Taiwan ranks last at 1.07 children per woman, far below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to maintain the population. The bottom five countries or regions are all in Asia, with estimated fertility rates under 1.23. They are Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Japan ranks No. 10 from the bottom with an estimated fertility rate of 1.38. Any unlimited child policy will have a temporary boost that fades well before 2026. China has property debt problems. China will have to go to extreme measures....

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/mariupol-being-destroyed-like-hiroshima-deputy-mayor-sergeii-orlov-says-1531655 civilian deaths 2358 in mariupol. but Up to 20,000 dead civilians in mariupol 2000 civilians in other places https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-20000-civilians-flee-war-torn-city-of-mariupol-as-it-happened/a-61126783 977 deaths via UN human rights has been said to be underestimated Russian military 7000-15000 https://inews.co.uk/news/ukraine-how-many-people-died-civilians-soldieres-killed-russia-war-1529282 Ukraine military 2000-5000 Estimate 1...