not a fan of the resolution criteria here since it's pretty clear some people are voting just because other people have already voted for 1%. this has now become a Keynesian beauty contest rather than an actual question about coronavirus.

reminds me of a question about Elizabeth Warren being the front-runner that resolved because prediction markets briefly spiked above 60%.


To me it looks just combining NLP with object detection, while not increasing the accuracy of either.

I think "just" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The fact that ML/Deep Learning is to the point where combining out of the box tools results in things that would have seemed like magic even a few years ago is happening across the board. It's becoming harder and harder to point out example of "AI will never be able to ..." without someone immediately providing a counter-example.

It's interesting how Metaculus is divided into "plausible extension of current trends" and "Dude, the singularity is just around the corner". Metaculus predics >70% chance of [AGI]( by 2075, and superintelligence a few [months]( later, but "will there be a million people on Mars" is onl...

Perhaps we collectively overestimated this one?

One think to keep in mind is that the P(coronavirus | metaculus user ) < p(coronavirus | general population), since Metaculus users probably have above-average knowledge+ability+desire to avoid Covid-19.

@leon.waterman I really doubt this will be an issue in practice. Any AI that can beat a modestly adversarial Turing Test (Loebner prize) will trivially solve the other 3 criteria.

@(tryingToPredictFuture) Nice. I’m putting a lot of probability mass immediately after 02-20. Troop buildup should be done by then and there’sa decent argument to be made he won’t embarrass China by invading during the Olympics. Given that Putin doesn’t seem to be seriously engaging in negotiations, I’m not sure what he gains by waiting beyond that point. Especially if you believe mud to be a real factor (which I mostly disregard). 02-21 being the anniversary of Euromaiden seems especially fitting given Putin’s preoccupation with color revolutions. ...

Take with the usual caveat "this is US intelligence, so they could be lying", but this does seem like the kind of thing you do if you're actually planning on invading, not the "oh it's just a super-elaborate bluff" category.

@AABoyles Continuing with the joking, but not really theme: this tweet

OP complains "there hasn't been a massive jump in AI capabilities in the last 72 hours" and the immediate response is 3 SOTA projects released in the last 2 days.

If this isn't what "accelerating AI" looks like, IDK what is.

Can we get a version of this question with wider bounds?

It's interesting looking at this question a few years later. In 2018, both VR and AR were relatively rare and it was hard to guess which would prevail. Now there are [millions of VR headsets]( being used and AR still remains mostly [vaporware]( If the current trend continues, there will be 10M's of VR headsets in 2025 so unless a hit AR product comes out between now and the...

@ersatz What would update you?

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Google's latest work combining robotics and language models so that you can, for example, tell a robot "pick up the coke can and put it in the trash" is pretty darn impressive. link

My gut tells me we are no more than 5 years away from AI that is as smart as a human child, and depending on whether or not you believe in foom, AGI is somewhere between a few minutes and a few years after that.

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Worth noting, the period where China's GDP growth exceeds that of the USA might already be over.

@(ThirdEyeOpen) Estimating from some of the numbers [here]( and [here]( I think it would be around 1700. World population at the time was around [600M](, 1/10th of what it is today. By 1640, the 13 colonies alone had 50k. So maybe 150 years to reach a similar proportion. Of course America is 40,000X closer and much more ...

Anyone want to comment why this is so low?

It seems like: 1) Trump wants to run 2) He got more votes this election than any other Republican candidate ever

Are people betting he will be too ill/in prison to run, or are they betting that the GOP establishment will figure out some way to sideline him?

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

@(placeybordeaux) Elon musk [owns]( 47% of SpaceX, which Metaculus [expects]( to be worth $774B in 2030. That means each of his [172m]( shares of TSLA would have to be worth $3,686 to make up the difference. So Tesla would have to have a market cap of $3,818T. This is assuming his other companies (Twitter, Boring Company, etc) are insignificant. The Boring Com...
Another anecdote about how adversarial a human tester can be: In the mid 2000's (AOL instant messenger days) I received an unsolicited IM. Bots were just common enough at the time that I wasn't sure whether or not I was talking to a human. At the time chatbot technology was fairly primitive such that the following dialogue universally tripped up chatbots: > Me: Hello, how are you? > > Chatbot: Hello > > Me: What is the sentence I just sent? > > Chatbot: My name is Bob When my unknown IM sender successfully passed this test "You just sent 'hello...

"Bennett, Lapid reach agreement on forming coalition to oust Netanyahu"…

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I have such cognitive dissonance over these questions.

Metaculus thinks there's a 75% chance the singularity will happen before 2080, but only a 50% chance that we'll have decent holographic displays.