not a fan of the resolution criteria here since it's pretty clear some people are voting just because other people have already voted for 1%. this has now become a Keynesian beauty contest rather than an actual question about coronavirus.
reminds me of a question about Elizabeth Warren being the front-runner that resolved because prediction markets briefly spiked above 60%.
To me it looks just combining NLP with object detection, while not increasing the accuracy of either.
I think "just" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The fact that ML/Deep Learning is to the point where combining out of the box tools results in things that would have seemed like magic even a few years ago is happening across the board. It's becoming harder and harder to point out example of "AI will never be able to ..." without someone immediately providing a counter-example.
Perhaps we collectively overestimated this one?
One think to keep in mind is that the P(coronavirus | metaculus user ) < p(coronavirus | general population), since Metaculus users probably have above-average knowledge+ability+desire to avoid Covid-19.
@leon.waterman I really doubt this will be an issue in practice. Any AI that can beat a modestly adversarial Turing Test (Loebner prize) will trivially solve the other 3 criteria.
"Translating a Visual LEGO Manual to a Machine-Executable Plan"
Take with the usual caveat "this is US intelligence, so they could be lying", but this does seem like the kind of thing you do if you're actually planning on invading, not the "oh it's just a super-elaborate bluff" category.
@AABoyles Continuing with the joking, but not really theme: this tweet
OP complains "there hasn't been a massive jump in AI capabilities in the last 72 hours" and the immediate response is 3 SOTA projects released in the last 2 days.
If this isn't what "accelerating AI" looks like, IDK what is.
Can we get a version of this question with wider bounds?
@ersatz What would update you?
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Google's latest work combining robotics and language models so that you can, for example, tell a robot "pick up the coke can and put it in the trash" is pretty darn impressive. link
My gut tells me we are no more than 5 years away from AI that is as smart as a human child, and depending on whether or not you believe in foom, AGI is somewhere between a few minutes and a few years after that.
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Worth noting, the period where China's GDP growth exceeds that of the USA might already be over.
Anyone want to comment why this is so low?
It seems like: 1) Trump wants to run 2) He got more votes this election than any other Republican candidate ever
Are people betting he will be too ill/in prison to run, or are they betting that the GOP establishment will figure out some way to sideline him?
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
"Bennett, Lapid reach agreement on forming coalition to oust Netanyahu"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-bennett-…
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I have such cognitive dissonance over these questions.
Metaculus thinks there's a 75% chance the singularity will happen before 2080, but only a 50% chance that we'll have decent holographic displays.