How will this question resolve if Kyiv falls but then is recaptured by April 1 in a counterattack?

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I'm going to predict far below the current community prediction of ~25% at 8%. For the record, I think polyamory is morally acceptable and perhaps underappreciated, but I don't see polygamy being legalized in every U.S. state by 2050. For one, in contrast to the legalization of gay marriage and interracial marriage, which could be incorporated quite easily into the existing legal framework of "marriage", the legalization of polygamy would involve somewhat significant changes to, e.g., marriage law, divorce law, and tax law which could slow down any legis...

# Predicitions before a question opens It would be nice to be able to set a prediction before a question opens which takes effect immediately upon opening. One problem is that a question's text or scale could change before opening. I'd propose that in the first case the prediction be kept and in the second case the prediction be discarded. In either case, the user would have to be warned of these possibilities. # Categorical questions with more than two results Right now Metaculus permits yes/no questions, but not questions with a fixed number of answ...

@brp We need statements that make it clear they have crossed the boundary.

@notany What is your suggestion about which question resolving in 6 months would be good?

It's been roughly 24 months since the pandemic began, and there have been three dominant strains in that time. Therefore, I assume that a new strain emeges approximately every once every 8 months on average. Using a Poisson distribution, I get a probability of 0.26.

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@oodkan Binomial distributions are not as useful for a question like this (except as an upper bound) because the outcomes are highly correlated.

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@(occamsbulldog) > “Iraq has WMDs” intel failure 20 years Most people who are skeptical of the US narrative because Iraq see the "Iraq has WMDs" not as an intel failure but as the Bush administration lying and exaggerating in order to accomplish its political goals. It wasn't some sort of mistake, it was a PR campaign carried out with a disregard for the facts in order to justify invasion. So the lesson is not that "U.S. intel can be wrong" but instead "the U.S. government can misrepresent the facts on the ground if doing so served its interests". I t...

I'm unsure about how to calibrate a prediction on this one, but it's suprising to me that Metaculus thinks that AGI will be developed in 2042 and superintelligent AGI in 2043, but P vs NP will be unsolved until 2120. I guess that people think P vs NP is monstrously hard.

@Jgalt They can't seriously think Kyiv would agree to this, right? Or seriously think that the rest of the world won't view their offer as a farce?

@(mackbjon) If your choice is between large numbers of people being wrong and your understanding being incomplete you should probably default to the latter, even if you are exceptionally smart. Whenever my predictions differ substantially from the consensus, I try to think about what exactly I believe provides me a prediction advantage over the median Metaculite. The community is reacting to the fact that people with more information than is public think an invasion is likely (and are taking concrete actions based on that belief like moving the embassy...

@ClayGraubard If Russia has installed a puppet government that's unrecognized by most countries and unrecognized by Ukraine there's a solid argument that Ukraine has been effectively annexed, or at leas the government isn't the legitimate Ukrainian government.

@Jgalt I must be having deja vu because I heard that same story last week.

@randomuser2323 I see the distinction you're trying to make, but I don't necessarily agree it's unambiguous from the wording of the question. For example, if I say "I'm going to lose 20 pounds by the end of the year", and I lose 20 but then gain 40, would common parlance hold my promise fulfilled?

The fact that the announcement requirement is so strong helps things to some extent, though, since countries tend to be slow in making announcements when things are disputed.

@trillionage The question covers this. It links to a Wikipedia page with a table under the heading "List of temporarily occupied regions and settlements". That table includes the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts so if Russia were to enter only the regions that are currently separatist controlled this question would not resolve positively.

See also: https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/ga12122.doc.htm

"He noted that 7 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and eastern parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are currently under occupation"

@joshuaegage Source? I couldn't find this report with google.

I'd like to see non-normal distributions. Specifically, I'd like to see exponential distributions for time-based questions and uniform distributions for numerical questions.

Other related features are the ability to directly edit distribution parameters (rather than use sliders), and for numerical questions the ability to toggle between linear and log scales and adjust distributions accordingly (I think this can currently be done at the question level but not by individual predictors?).

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I'd like to see separate questions for when each of the Millennium Prize problems will be resolved. There's one for P = NP but I'm interested in which problems the community thinks are "easier" relative our current understanding.

@nhuvelle You seem to be arguing that Bitcoin is best because it was first. But the dollar came before Bitcoin, and the pound sterling came before the dollar. I thought Bitcoin was supposed to supplant (or complement) traditional currencies because of superior technology. Why can't another currency that's more useful than Bitcoin supplant it?

I predict 5% by July, 25% by October, 50% by December, 75% by March 2023, and 95% chance by July 2023.

There's a small chance that good Arc performance + an Ethereum crash would mean a quick resolution, and next gen-GPUs should be out by March. Among the 3 GPUs, the 3080Ti is the most likely to drop below $1100, since that price was created by Nvidia during the shortage to capture more of the price increases.