Great feature! Is there a way to enable notifications "when community prediction shifts" globally for all my current and future predictions? Having to manually go through all of them is somewhat annoying.

@Tamay I don't know if someone already suggested this, but this question series (7. - 11.) might benefit from being combined with the new question group feature.

That's great! I have two suggestions:

1) Keep personal and community mean and IQR for resolved dates in the graph (maybe as an option). Would make spotting repeated over-/underestimates easy.

2) I think it could be interesting for certain questions to make the past data points start earlier than the first resolution. For example for a global temperature question, the graph would be initialized with data starting in the year 1990. This would put the predictions in their historical context.

@(Sylvain) Personally, my priority would be the notifications. Would be useful for questions where I missed some important new piece of information (some announcement, breaking news, etc.). The community updates accordingly but I don't, now I am off by a lot for as long as it takes me to log in again and notice it. With the notification I would be informed that something is going on and I should have a look. With regards to sorting: What I would prefer is a variation on what I understand you described: Sort by difference between personal and community p...
Thanks @aran for mentioning tear gas. If tear gas does indeed count (and I think it should, "temporary incapacitation"), this likely already happened on March 17: [Russian troops use tear gas to disperse Ukrainians protesting against detention of city officials]( > Russian forces tear-gassed Ukrainian protesters in the Russian-occupied city of Skadovsk on Wednesday when they demonstrated against the detention of the mayor and two other officia...

UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) Data Portal: 3.0 million as of March 15

— edited by mmmeta

@jimmy.p.watts 4M? UNHCR (which is used as the resolution source) reports 3.1M as of March 15.

Extending the runtime of nuclear plants requires serious preparation. So far, nothing has happened and as @MaxR has pointed out, we may already be past the point of no return for quitting nuclear power. Yes, some politicians (including the finance minister) lobby for an extension. However, the chancellor and the economy minister as well as EnBW agree that it's not an option (see for example

I remain at 1%.

Would be nice to get a clarification of the resolution criteria @MaxG. Do you consider the current plans sufficient for a positive resolution (if they are implement as currently planned), i.e. are the planned "social clubs" sufficient to count as "legally sold for recreational use" or not?

@rappatoni Agreed, that's still a valid scenario. However, I am surprised that the community weighs it at 65%. What other positive-resolution argument is there?

I updated my prediction from 40% to 25% based on the news.


The United States is considering a plea deal that would allow Wikileaks founder and whistleblower Julian Assange to return to Australia, the Sydney Morning Herald reported Monday.

@mumpskin Given that's correct (was this ever independently verified?), the question remains open whether these squads had the required 100 soldiers.

Legalization was announced today for this year: > The German government has announced plans to allow the possession of up to 25 grams (just under 0.9 ounces) of cannabis, and the cultivation of a maximum of three plants at home. However, the resolution criteria require that "cannabis is legally sold for recreational us". I don't think the current plan is sufficient for this: > The legislation would allow for the commercial distribution of cannabis only unde...