There are huge disagreements between different forecasting platforms about whether the Olympics will happen or not. Surely, the questions are different in the ways meaningfully affecting their resolutions; but I still can't comprehend the contradictions. Here are the questions (along with the important bits of clarifications): - Good Judgement Open: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Postponement(s) alone would not count. - Polymarket: Will the Tokyo Summer Olympic...

@Tamay I got the first shot two days ago, will get a follow up one in 3 weeks.

So far all cases of Olympic Games were scheduled but canceled have been due to World War I (1916) or World War II (1940 and 1944).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Cancel…

@misha so the upper bound for the ship is 3700 - (443 + 450 + 274) = 2533.

The ministry says 443 returned to dry land on Wednesday, and 274 on Thursday. It says up to 450 more people are expected to disembark on Friday.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200…

In February 2020, 3,700 passengers and crew were quarantined by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, due to an outbreak of Covid-19 on the ship. Passengers with confirmed cases were reported to be taken ashore for treatment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princes…

@Jgalt I broadly agree with the spirit of Alex's reply. At the same time, Belarusians are indeed capable of organizing to block many roads and ignore state stores. As protestors already do it, say, they temporarily blocked a few roads after police brutality at a demonstration of elderly people last week.

I am confused about how the question resolves on Mar 15 if it is about something on Mar 27?

Meduza: [Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya issues ‘people’s ultimatum’ to the Belarusian authorities ](https://meduza.io/en/news/2020/10/13/opposition-leader-svetlana-tikhanovskaya-issues-people-s-ultimatum-to-the-belarusian-authorities) > Tikhanovskaya has given the Belarusian authorities 13 days — until October 25 — to fulfill the following demands: 1. Lukashenko announcing his resignation, 2. Putting a stop to the use of violence against peaceful protesters, and 3. Releasing political prisoners. > If these demands are not met, the authorities...
In 2010 there were similar concerns about swine flu. The major difference is the availability of a vaccine. > (H1N1) wasn't quite as widespread, although there was significant fear prior to the Games, and it was almost identical timing — six months before the Games — when the outbreak occurred," said Wilkinson, who is the Canadian team's chief medical officer for Tokyo. > One major difference: there was a vaccine for H1N1 — or swine flu — and there is not one yet for COVID-19. Every athlete that arrived in Canada for the 2010 Olympics, Wilkinson said, ...

@misha Also,

The 1998 Winter Olympics flu epidemic was a flu outbreak that occurred during the 1998 Winter Olympics in Nagano, Japan.

via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Winter_Oly…