There are huge disagreements between different forecasting platforms about whether the Olympics will happen or not. Surely, the questions are different in the ways meaningfully affecting their resolutions; but I still can't comprehend the contradictions. Here are the questions (along with the important bits of clarifications): - Good Judgement Open: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Postponement(s) alone would not count. - Polymarket: Will the Tokyo Summer Olympic...

@Tamay I got the first shot two days ago, will get a follow up one in 3 weeks.

In [an interview](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/andy-weber-rendering-bioweapons-obsolete/#chances-that-covid-19-escaped-from-a-research-facility-010155) to 80,000 Hours podcast, Andy Weber, who was the US Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction, said: > Andy Weber: Well, over time, evidence for natural spread hasn’t been produced, we haven’t found the intermediate species, you know, the pangolin that was talked about last year. I actually think that the odds that this was a laboratory-acq...

So far all cases of Olympic Games were scheduled but canceled have been due to World War I (1916) or World War II (1940 and 1944).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Cancel…

Wei Dai [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RukXjEvMfqDKRJaup/what-will-be-the-big-picture-implications-of-the-coronavirus#2mcb949cKj2TxpiRK) as a response to "What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?". > The world is probably going to lose 5̶ 2.5-10% of its population (3̶8̶0̶ 190-760 million, see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RukXjEvMfqDKRJaup/what-will-be-the-big-picture-implications-of-the-coronavirus?commentId=jsQangaXXye8HiQnx) for the reason for my edit), **wors...

@misha so the upper bound for the ship is 3700 - (443 + 450 + 274) = 2533.

The ministry says 443 returned to dry land on Wednesday, and 274 on Thursday. It says up to 450 more people are expected to disembark on Friday.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200…

In February 2020, 3,700 passengers and crew were quarantined by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, due to an outbreak of Covid-19 on the ship. Passengers with confirmed cases were reported to be taken ashore for treatment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princes…

Rutube.ru now looks much more like YouTube.com.

A plausible strategy is to move popular non-political content to Rutube by (a) sponsorship deals; (b) slowing down YouTube (as they did with Twitter) → this would allow banning YouTube much cheaper. But I doubt that that the transition is feasible by the elections.

@casens is ⁺, Superscript Plus Sign (U+207A), good enough? There are other superscript signs in Unicode e.g. ¹.

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@(sbares), indeed. @moderators, would it be possible to change "coins" to "assets" in the "question" fields of these questions: - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230 - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235 - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236 - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237 - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238 - https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239 Also, I would appreciate putting them (and [Polymarket one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240)) into a new category e.g. "crypto counterparty risk" subcategory of "...

@Jgalt I broadly agree with the spirit of Alex's reply. At the same time, Belarusians are indeed capable of organizing to block many roads and ignore state stores. As protestors already do it, say, they temporarily blocked a few roads after police brutality at a demonstration of elderly people last week.

I am confused about how the question resolves on Mar 15 if it is about something on Mar 27?

@Alexander230

  • would throttling (as with Twitter traffic) count?
  • would a failed attempt count (as with Telegram; when Telegram was formally banned but easily available w/o any VPN)?
Meduza: [Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya issues ‘people’s ultimatum’ to the Belarusian authorities ](https://meduza.io/en/news/2020/10/13/opposition-leader-svetlana-tikhanovskaya-issues-people-s-ultimatum-to-the-belarusian-authorities) > Tikhanovskaya has given the Belarusian authorities 13 days — until October 25 — to fulfill the following demands: 1. Lukashenko announcing his resignation, 2. Putting a stop to the use of violence against peaceful protesters, and 3. Releasing political prisoners. > If these demands are not met, the authorities...

Semi-seriously, I think this question should be denominated in ETH, using fiat money is not in the spirit of non-fungibles.

@moderators, hey! I am working on a series of questions about counterparty risk in crypto. Most of them follow this template; see my google docs [retracted] for details.

— edited by misha