Another protest is planned for tomorrow: http://www.praguemorning.cz/million-moments-f…

"The anti-government protest movement A Million Moments for Democracy plans a march through Prague on the 50th anniversary of a protest held a year after the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968."

@(tenthkrige) I understand, but maybe we should use a criterion of official economic sanctions (when the State which imposing sanction tells so by official announcements or words by State officials- like in case of sanctions od Russia. As I undearstand economic sanctions they are (or at least in this case would be) a tool of political pressure to change the unwanted behavior or policy of a State that sanctions are imposed on. But if other countries governments would see intervention as a harm already done (not a behavior that needs correction), you mig...
@(tenthkrige) I thought the same about you :) since you mentioned that you are thinking of the way how to make Metaculus question from the question I asked in the discussion here. I'm new around here, so I still have a lot to learn and I hope to learn a lot from experience forecasters like you. Thanks to your encouragement I posted my first ever question here (it was only a copy of yours, but still it was a new experience). This discussion also taught me something about setting up resolution criteria. I think I wouldn't have time to prepare the question ...

@ersatz We must remember that they forecast on a different question (the forecast is about different time frame and has different resolution criteria) - @ClayGraubard showed it nicely in the labels text on his graph

Hi @Jgalt , it looks good, I just accepted it. Thank you for writing it. If you would like to open it sooner please ask admins.

@Jgalt Probably some people who typically are underconfident were at 99% and Metaculus corrected it to 100% (probably more than 99.5 not 100).

@Sylvain "I am part of that power which eternally wills evil and eternally works good."

@(Jgalt) I agree. Looks like the propaganda preparations for the force intervention. With more and more chaos in the city preventing it from normal functioning as the most important financial center of Asia (blocked airport and canceled flights etc.), the Chinese government is less and less incentivized not to use brutal force. The agreement for the complete withdraw of the bill seems less and less likely (very unlikely it seem wight such a retoric from Chinese government media). For me the question is if local police forces (with the unofficial help fro...

@alwaysrinse thanks, I must go to sleep now. I will make sure everything is fine tomorrow (will edit links in markdown) and we will publish it :)

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/hong-k…

"Prominent pro-democracy leaders in Hong Kong have been arrested ahead of a planned mass march tomorrow. (...) There have been hundreds of arrests this summer -- but Hong Kong legal experts say today's targeted roundup may indicate that the government is losing patience and cracking down on the pro-democracy movement."

@CrabMan I just accepted it. I changed it a little since I think more of a short fuse type question is proper here. If it will resolve negative we can add another one for some next period. I changed the wording to "excluding all the territories annexed after 2013" since it is not impossible that some new territories will be annexed by Russia. @admins could you open this question quicker? This might be important since a full parliament meeting in Russia is planned for the 4th of March.

@ugandamaximum @alwaysrinse @stupidme @metani I changed the resolution to NTSB report alone as ugandamaximum suggested - I am not sure if we should dismiss the Chinese report on this as potentially unreliable, but there is always some risk and I think the single source for the resolution is better here.

@(tenthkrige) Great idea! I'm new here so I don't know all the options, but I think that we can decompose the sanctions problem into smaller sub-problems that could be expressed in binary or numerical questions. For more ideas I must better understand the economic sanctions mechanism - [this article](https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/g7-dysfunction-unified-action-hong-kong-impossible-190823131526312.html) is from aljazeera.com - I don't know what is your opinion about this website but for me looks helpful - other articles I found only stated that sancti...