The community median seems too far from 99% with less than a month till question resolution and current state of events (I am on 99% since early December). There might have been quite strong signals in the past but the system was rather stable and what was not stable within that system (like state TV workers protest) was already stabilized by Putin. I know it means fewer points for me if you update but my goal is to be a good forecaster, I am not driven by competition, I prefer good cooperation :)
"In the wake of violent clashes in Hong Kong on Sunday, during which a live gunshot was fired for the first time since protests began in early June, Chinese state media used its harshest rhetoric yet to condemn the unrest and warned that Beijing could soon intervene."
"In response to questions on whether the government will resort to declaring a state of emergency in view of the recent chaos, Lam said the government will use existing means in the legal framework to “put a stop to violence and chaos”."
@tenthkrige Thank you. With pleasure. I'll do it today after work.
@ThirdEyeOpen Good to see your Candidacy. I viewed your profile and there were some comments I really liked (some of which were already upvoted by me in the past). I also like your attitude expressed in your candidacy post. Good luck with the election! I will vote for you! :)
One minor clarification so that new users won't get confused: moderators do not resolve the questions, only admins can do it. However, moderators could help with that like other users by providing relevant information.
This is from August 13: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/0…
As students prepare for an academic year that will be entirely virtual, many Harvard faculty members have, like Carpenter, reconceived and redesigned their courses to offer students ways to find community in the absence of in-person learning.
I have modified Tamay's calculator so that each of us can add our own estimations of probabilities for each evidence and add his/her own prior. You would be able to see your results from your individual estimations but workbook would also use the median from our estimations as a crowd to calculate the results. Is anyone interested?
Let's see where would wisdom of the crowd lead us! :)
@tenthkrige Because of the upcoming 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China similar Question about intervention in September would be very interesting. What do you think?
@traviswfisher I have the same problem on Android - I tested Chrome, Opera and Brave browsers and on all of them metaculus UI for range questions is broken but I also tested Miui browser which was preinstaled on my phone by Xiaomi and metaculus UI worked well. So I also installed Firefox on my android phone and it works well from what I have seen. So if you would like you can check Firefox on your mobile.