Community estimate seems too low given the recent tech rally. Unless I'm mistaken, if Apple crosses the $2T mark (+~19% from current price) before mid-September 2020, or if Amazon crosses the $2T (+~30%) mark any time before February 2021, or in March 2021, a positive resolution will be triggered.
31 March: +242k first doses, one of which I was fortunate enough to get. 7dma of 308k, total of 31.15m. Heading for resolution over the Easter weekend (data lag notwithstanding).
As of Sep-13, NPR counts 16.
This scenario-planning exercise could probably be mined for questions: Preparing for a Disputed Presidential Election: An Exercise in Election Risk Assessment and Management
At the end of Friday’s episode (Model Talk), the host said there would be episodes every weekday from Monday Oct 19th until Election Day. I think this would be 42 episodes total.
Community prediction has increased from 25% to 45% since the start of the pandemic.
Kristensen & Korda (2020) find the stockpile "roughly unchanged" from 2019, at ~3,800.
Black Knight monitors monthly delinquency rates, and has data for Q2. Their series doesn't line up with the FRED data, but I'd guess Q2 vs Q1 trend is indicative.
Jun'20 --- 7.59%
May'20 --- 7.76%
Apr'20 --- 6.45%
Mar'20 --- 3.39%
Feb'20 --- 3.28%
Jan'20 --- 3.22%
Historical data as csv: