Preprint: [Lineage-specific growth of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 during the English national lockdown]( > **Findings:** We find strong and consistent evidence that B.1.1.7 proliferated (R>1) during the English lockdown in 86% (215/246) of lower tier local authorities with an average R value of 1.26. At the same time other lineages contracted (R<1) at an average R value of 0.86 in most regions, leading to 81% (200/246) of regions showing B.1.1.7 prolif...
Note that as of [Dec-2]( the UK does not plan to vaccinate under-16s, who represent [~19% of the population]( >The Committee advises that only those childr...

Community estimate seems too low given the recent tech rally. Unless I'm mistaken, if Apple crosses the $2T mark (+~19% from current price) before mid-September 2020, or if Amazon crosses the $2T (+~30%) mark any time before February 2021, or in March 2021, a positive resolution will be triggered.

Questions on the specifics of a disputed US election could be interesting: - How many states will send rival states of electors to the Electoral College? - Will President Trump issue a state of emergency at any point between Nov 3 and Jan 20? - Will federal law enforcement be deployed against protestors at any point between Nov 3, Jan 20? - Will there be a Supreme Court challenge to the Presidential election results? - etc. cf The Atlantic: [What if Trump Refused To Concede?](

31 March: +242k first doses, one of which I was fortunate enough to get. 7dma of 308k, total of 31.15m. Heading for resolution over the Easter weekend (data lag notwithstanding).

**When will there be an artificial non-nuclear explosion bigger than the 2020 Beirut Explosion?** [The blast]( was estimated to be [0.5–1.1 kT TNT equivalent]( Per [Wikipedia](, the last bigger explosion was the [1988 PEPCON Disaster]( at ~1 ...
1/3 way through the reference period, there've been [994 preprints]( The last few years, these 8 weeks had ~20% of papers in the 6 month period. Naive scaling suggests ~5k...

At the end of Friday’s episode (Model Talk), the host said there would be episodes every weekday from Monday Oct 19th until Election Day. I think this would be 42 episodes total.

Community prediction has increased from 25% to 45% since the start of the pandemic.

[NHS letter to vaccinators (2nd March)]( provides more detail on the delivery schedule in March: >From 11 March, vaccine supply will increase substantially and be sustained at a higher level for several weeks. Therefore, from the week of 15 March we are now asking systems to plan and support all vaccination centres and local vaccination services to deliver around twice the level of vaccine ...
As of 26 Mar, 29.72m first doses; 7dma of 406k. Overall dose numbers have been pretty strong (7dma of 573k, down from peak of 600k on 22nd March), and clear signs of a ramp up in second doses. To keep dose spacing <12 weeks, need to administer ~400k second doses per day in April. I expect any doses in excess of this to be given as first doses, so lots depends on the scale of the incoming supply drop, and how quickly we draw down the ~10m doses in inventory. My forecast is slightly more bearish than the community — lots of weight in the second week of Ap...

Kristensen & Korda (2020) find the stockpile "roughly unchanged" from 2019, at ~3,800.

Black Knight monitors monthly delinquency rates, and has data for Q2. Their series doesn't line up with the FRED data, but I'd guess Q2 vs Q1 trend is indicative.

Jun'20 --- 7.59%

May'20 --- 7.76%

Apr'20 --- 6.45%

Mar'20 --- 3.39%

Feb'20 --- 3.28%

Jan'20 --- 3.22%

Some analysis of the time lag between discovery and Nobel Prize recognition. I think Fig. 1 shows prizes in physiology & medicine are running at ~20–25 years post-discovery.

Historical data as csv: