I gave some suggestions in another comment:

  • How many states will send rival states of electors to the Electoral College?
  • Will President Trump issue a state of emergency at any point between Nov 3 and Jan 20?
  • Will federal law enforcement be deployed against protestors at any point between Nov 3, Jan 20?
  • Will there be a Supreme Court challenge to the Presidential election results?

To save people computing the 2016 accuracy:

FiveThirtyEight 2016 forecast

Clinton: 48.5%

Trump: 44.9%

Forecast Trump share = 48.1% [= 0.449/(0.449+0.485)]

2016 result

Clinton: 48.2%

Trump: 46.1%

Actual Trump share = 48.9% [= 0.461/(0.461+0.482)]

2016 popular vote accuracy = +0.8%

I'm pretty bullish, despite the UK government's track record on delivering on COVID-related targets. Per [this Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/robblackie_oo/status/1349616213132009474), the vaccine supply timelines for the UK (as of last week) are consistent with very rapid rollout. [My spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lcdy8SrkcBFCMuztHvl9jgcspslYH5SjEGYXbBlnfFs/edit?usp=sharing) of the supply schedule for the UK implied by scaling up the [Scottish government's supply timeline](https://theedinburghreporter.co.uk/wp-content/upload...

@casens @DanielFilan

IMF estimate from October was $1.65tn and +4.7% growth in local currency.

Official growth numbers came in 2 weeks ago at +4.7%, which I guess validates the IMF estimate for nominal $GDP somewhat

**When will we achieve a 15-hour work week?** In a [1930 essay](https://assets.aspeninstitute.org/content/uploads/files/content/upload/Intro_and_Section_I.pdf), John Maynard Keynes predicted that within 100 years: (1) standards of living in "progressive countries" would increase 4–8x and (sort of) predicted that: (2) we would work only 15 hours a week (1) will almost certainly resolve positively (at least, in terms of GDP/capita growth). (2) seems likely to resolve false — e.g. the [UK work week](https://www.statista.com/statistics/280749/monthly-f...

Things seem to have stabilised enough for him to survive until June, barring a major new scandal. I agree with @beandlauert that Ukraine crisis works in his favour.

I'd be interested in a similar question with a Dec/Jan endpoint.

Factoring in some chance that the offer doesn’t materialise, that the deal falls through nonetheless, and that it drags into 2023.

Azerbaijan and Armenia clash over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region (BBC)

Will Azerbaijan take control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabak region?

How many people will die in clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Some reasons why economic impact might be less bad than some (inc Metaculus) are expecting: **Possibility of fiscal expansion** (via [Tooze](https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-91-what-if-putins-war-regime?s=w)) - Putin’s macro policy has been extremely conservative for 20 years—e.g. [2021 budget balances at $69/b oil](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices); he's run a current account surplus for [20+ years](https://www.ceicdata.com/data...

So close...

Sleepy Joe Biden has spent 47 years in politics being terrible to Hispanics. Now he is relying on Castro lover Bernie Sanders to help him out ...


Presidents who've sought re-election and lost:

  • 4 of 14 (29%) since 1945

  • 14 of 45 (27%) in total

— edited by mattvdm

This comment was originally posted on Joe Biden

I've commented this elsewhere, but wrt COVID I would love some forecasts on the Stringency Index, which seems like one of the best measures of 'back to normal' available.

Some values as of today:

USA, 75

UK, 64

Australia, 52

New Zealand, 22

e.g. When will US/UK stringency index fall below 30?

[AstraZeneca Covid vaccine has 'winning formula': CEO (RTE)](rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1227/1186602-covid-19-vaccine/): >Pascal Soriot said in an interview with the Sunday Times newspaper that it provides "100% protection" against severe Covid disease requiring hospitalisation. >He added he believes trials will show his firm has achieved a vaccine efficacy equal to Pfizer-BioNTech at 95% and Moderna at 94.5%. >"We think we have figured out the winning formula and how to get efficacy that, after two doses, is up there with everybody else," the chief ...

October update:

A total of 30,590 plug-in vehicles (24,318 BEVs and 6,272 PHEVs) were sold during October 2020 in the United States, down 2.6% from the sales in October 2019. PEVs captured 2.27% of total LDV sales in this month.

Cumulatively, 228,247 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2020. In total, 1,671,874 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold since 2010.

@Nostradamnus bear in mind that's the Q2 QoQ growth at an annualized rate, so would give a Q2 ratio of (26/19.7) 132%.

@borromini — it has 49 ratings, 28 reviews. Amazon seems to distinguish between ratings (stars) and reviews (rating with text comment). I think the question is somewhat unclear on this point.

@Matthew_Barnett, could you clarify?

2 SOTA since question open:

6-Jan-21, 90.3 DeBERTa / TuringNLRv4

5-Jan-21, 90.2, T5 + Meena

Here's a clean export of OpenTable's data up to July 19th. It required some cleaning since the dates are badly formatted.

It would be great to have an analogous question for 2021 (and/or even longer timespans)