It's unclear whether any human could solve 80% of these coding problems on the first try. Humans typically take time to think about their answer before writing it, and during the writing process they usually edit things a bit to correct mistakes.
To be a fair comparison, the model should be allowed to use chain-of-thought techniques at the very least, and to review and edit its answer before submitting. Otherwise we are asking it to do something that no human could do.
@BrendanFinan Please don't. There are much better ways to draw attention to this topic without delegitimizing Metaculus as a signal of what people actually think. I say this as someone who thinks there's a 10% chance we have less than one year left.
Wait no, going down to 25% after reading this: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/123063413610…
@tbyoln Thanks for this response. I hope you have a great day too. <3
@nextbigfuture Given the massive damage to the pad, they may have to redesign Stage 0 significantly -- and that could by itself set them back a whole year. They may not be able to launch again until e.g. they've dug a huge flame diverter trench, or rebuilt the OLM to be higher (which would also involve rebuilding the tower to be higher)
Any ideas why progress was so much faster than people expected?
This comment was originally posted on January 14, 2022
I'm a bit confused that the community prediction has the risk highest in the thirties, and substantially higher than the risk from AGI happening in the twenties! I wonder why.
How much will funding for biorisk prevention increase after coronavirus?
We could look at specific organizations, like the CDC, and see if their 2021 budgets are substantially bigger than their 2020 or 2019 budgets.
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It feels a bit weird to me to read this question, with its excellent summary of some reasons to think the answer will be Yes, but not a word of argument that the answer will be No. Surely there is some other Medium post out there with arguments for No, right? Anyhow I don't mean this as a major critique, I just wanted to flag that it would be nice to have both sides represented at the top.
@notany Wait, starting to plateau? What do you mean? Last I checked there was no sign of the trend even slowing down, much less plateauing! Moreover the theory results suggest that in the near future the trend will slow down but not plateau, so even if there is a slight dip it's probably just that.
Suppose in 2025 things like Replika are not popular, but something like AI Dungeon is super popular, hundreds of millions of people have ongoing fantasies collaboratively written with the AI... and a significant portion of these fantasies are sexual and/or romantic. I think this should count, but I'm not sure, so I'm asking.
@kokotajlod Come to think of it, maybe that is what they are doing lol. They are explicitly sticking their necks out and making all this noise about the imminent invasion, so that Putin will be tempted to make them look like fools by calling it off. Looking like fools is the price they are willing to pay to prevent the invasion. :)
(I don't actually believe this theory but it seems more plausible than yours!)