This investor report summarizes the state of AI in 2020 and makes a few predictions about the next year (slide 172) I think it would be interesting to put some of their predictions on metaculus:
--Attention-based neural nets achieve multiple SOTA results in computer vision --Beefier version: ALL SOTA results in computer vision come from attention-based neural nets by end of 2021 --An AI-based drug discovery startup IPOs or is bought for $1B+ --Chinese and European AI-based defense startups raise $100M+ between them
@Jgalt This makes me wonder if part of the reason why experts are saying vaccines are far away is that they want to scare people into taking containment measures now. Or, to put it another way, they are worried about people dragging their feet due to lazy hope in a vaccine. It's a perfectly reasonable utility-maximizing PR policy, I think.
@metani Nice. In scenarios where actually the virus did escape from the lab, and her tests showed as much, would she have been able to say so publicly? Would the government have pressured her to say that the tests came back negative, such that by mid-March an article like this could be written?? (Seems to me the answers are no and yes, respectively)
Can someone explain to me why it is likely that there will be ~10M cases? If this thing is contained, won't it probably be contained before then? (It's really hard to contain a disease once it has infected 10M people around the world!) If this thing is not contained, won't it infect substantially more than 10M people?
Suppose in 2025 things like Replika are not popular, but something like AI Dungeon is super popular, hundreds of millions of people have ongoing fantasies collaboratively written with the AI... and a significant portion of these fantasies are sexual and/or romantic. I think this should count, but I'm not sure, so I'm asking.
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@Sylvain But, like, why isn't that all priced into the market by now? Heck, for all we know the market is overreacting, with tons of people panic-selling their stocks, and it's going up from here...
Or not. IDK. But surely the mere fact that coronavirus will get worse is basically no evidence at all; what matters is whether the market will be pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised.
Why exactly has this not already resolved?
What do people think about the hypothesis that summer will stop it? As far as I can tell, warm-weather countries really do seem to be handling this virus pretty well; even if some of them have good healthcare systems plenty of them don't, and it's been long enough now that I am starting to doubt the "cases are just going unreported" counterargument.
Maybe the thought is, summer will slow it down but not stop it (since half the world will be in winter) and it'll be really big by then anyway?
I'd be very interested in a version of this question for 2030 or 2035 instead of 2050. Failing that, anyone here care to comment with an answer? Should I assume it is something like 20%, extrapolating from the current 2050 aggregate answer?
Interesting! The community median here is higher than I expected. Anyone care to explain why they think the scaling trend will break down?