### kokotajlod (13) Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

God dammit guys we had a sweet gig going! Just keep voting 1% and we all make points!

(This is my protest against this resolution method.)

### kokotajlod (7) Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

I just did a shallow investigation into whether or not this sort of thing has historical precedents: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TBY1wzAJUiw7yd8mcVVzmHdbdENtW1H0BP-8cS-kpgU/edit?usp=sharing Comments welcome! TL;DR: A similar Metaculus question prior to the Agricultural revolution would have resolved negative, but that's it: a similar Metaculus question prior to any other event (including the Industrial Revolution) would have resolved positive. (Edited because I embarrassingly switched positive and negative in the original version. The worst pos...

### kokotajlod (7) Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?

@Jgalt Can you explain why? Aliens vs. civil war seems like a pretty strange comparison to me; civil war should be several orders of magnitude more likely I'd say.

### kokotajlod (7) Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

I don't like how I am now incentivised to guess 1% since that will almost surely get me some quick points, even though my true credence is more like 20%. Were I to guess 20%, it would probably stay below 3% anyway since I'm so outnumbered, and I would just lose points even if I'm actually right.

### kokotajlod (6) Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

I'm making a bunch of predictions this New Year's Eve (it'll be fun!) in honor of my newborn daughter. They are mostly of the form "When she hits her 6th/11th/16th/21st birthday, ..." and they mostly fit the theme of "Cyberpunk." I'm sharing the spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PmMRSgwdmRWr7xy7gXUFfE1-O36cpPfLgKflp_JFT1I/edit?usp=sharing) in case anyone wants to write in their own credences, leave comments (i.e. suggestions for more things to add, or ways to clarify resolution conditions) and also in case anything on it seems fu...

### kokotajlod (6) Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

My baby daughter was born two weeks ago, and in honor of her existence I'm building a list of about 100 technology-related forecasting questions, which will resolve in 5, 10, and 20 years. Questions like "By the time my daughter is 5/10/20 years old, the average US citizen will be able to hail a driverless taxi in most major US cities." (The idea is, tying it to my daughter's age will make it more fun and also increase the likelihood that I actually go back and look at it 10 years later.) I'd love it if the questions were online somewhere so other peopl...

### kokotajlod (5) Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

How much will funding for biorisk prevention increase after coronavirus?

We could look at specific organizations, like the CDC, and see if their 2021 budgets are substantially bigger than their 2020 or 2019 budgets.

— edited by kokotajlod

### kokotajlod (5) Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?

It feels a bit weird to me to read this question, with its excellent summary of some reasons to think the answer will be Yes, but not a word of argument that the answer will be No. Surely there is some other Medium post out there with arguments for No, right? Anyhow I don't mean this as a major critique, I just wanted to flag that it would be nice to have both sides represented at the top.

### kokotajlod (5) How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?

@(Jgalt) Arguments I know of against the theory that vast numbers of people have already been exposed unknowingly: --This would predict that the vast majority of confirmed cases would have no apparent connection to a previous confirmed case. But IIRC that isn't true; a substantial fraction of confirmed cases did have contact with someone else confirmed at some point in the past two weeks. (South Korea should have data on this, right? They've got that app.) --This would predict that the infection fatality rate is tiny. But there are several communities ...

### kokotajlod (5) When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

I think people aren't reading the resolution criteria carefully: "In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count." Boston Dynamics Spot robot already meets this requirement, except that it's not humanoid. Boston Dynamics Atlas robot already meets this requirement, except that it's not for sale. Is it that hard to believe that Telsa could catch up to Boston Dynamics in a few years? Now, if t...

### kokotajlod (5) Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

This investor report summarizes the state of AI in 2020 and makes a few predictions about the next year (slide 172) I think it would be interesting to put some of their predictions on metaculus:

--Attention-based neural nets achieve multiple SOTA results in computer vision --Beefier version: ALL SOTA results in computer vision come from attention-based neural nets by end of 2021 --An AI-based drug discovery startup IPOs or is bought for \$1B+ --Chinese and European AI-based defense startups raise \$100M+ between them

### kokotajlod (5) Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?

@Jgalt This makes me wonder if part of the reason why experts are saying vaccines are far away is that they want to scare people into taking containment measures now. Or, to put it another way, they are worried about people dragging their feet due to lazy hope in a vaccine. It's a perfectly reasonable utility-maximizing PR policy, I think.

### kokotajlod (5) Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

@metani Nice. In scenarios where actually the virus did escape from the lab, and her tests showed as much, would she have been able to say so publicly? Would the government have pressured her to say that the tests came back negative, such that by mid-March an article like this could be written?? (Seems to me the answers are no and yes, respectively)

### kokotajlod (4) How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]

Can someone explain to me why it is likely that there will be ~10M cases? If this thing is contained, won't it probably be contained before then? (It's really hard to contain a disease once it has infected 10M people around the world!) If this thing is not contained, won't it infect substantially more than 10M people?

### kokotajlod (4) Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

Several AI-related predictions were made in [this Tesla video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE). 1:46: It will take at least 3 years for a competitor to make (deploy?) a chip that is as good as Tesla's current neural-net-optimized chip, and by then Tesla will have the next generation which will be 3x better. This bears on the more general question of how quickly new hardware (esp. AI-optimized hardware) can be built and improved, and how quickly competitors can catch front-runners. 2:46: Tesla's autopilot will be feature complete by end of...

### kokotajlod (4) Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?

@notany Wait, starting to plateau? What do you mean? Last I checked there was no sign of the trend even slowing down, much less plateauing! Moreover the theory results suggest that in the near future the trend will slow down but not plateau, so even if there is a slight dip it's probably just that.

### kokotajlod (4) How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

"Transformative AI is said to be developed on the date when growth rate of GWP reaches 25% due to a computer program or collection of computer programs. If 25% growth rate is reached without such a software system through nanotechnology, WBE or some other means then the question resolves as ambiguous." Just want to point out that this is importantly different from the definition of TAI. TAI is the computer program or programs that cause the growth; thus, TAI is developed when TAI is developed, which will presumably be years before the growth actually ha...

### kokotajlod (4) What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?

@Sylvain But, like, why isn't that all priced into the market by now? Heck, for all we know the market is overreacting, with tons of people panic-selling their stocks, and it's going up from here...

Or not. IDK. But surely the mere fact that coronavirus will get worse is basically no evidence at all; what matters is whether the market will be pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised.