@(Glossy) I am skeptical that raising alarms about a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine is a means to the end of attempting to reconquer the Donbass, especially if it's Washington that wants this to happen and Zelensky and co who are reticent. "Yo Zelensky" "Yes Washington?" "We want you to attack Donbass. Now is the time! Reclaim your lost territory!" "Why now of all times?" "Because the Russians are massing troops on your border! Perfect, right? They could invade any minute now!" "What?!?" Seriously, isn't launching an offensive into Donbass...

@jmason It would be helpful to know how often the Do Not Travel warning is followed by a lack of invasion. I wouldn't be surprised if it's "90%+ of the time." This would be a more useful piece of evidence than the anecdote about Azerbaijan.

God dammit guys we had a sweet gig going! Just keep voting 1% and we all make points!

(This is my protest against this resolution method.)

In general I think people here massively overestimate how long it'll take to go from "weakly general" to "general" (I'm referring to this question and its more popular weaker variant.)

I imagine that if we build unaligned AGI it will be because the people who built it think it is aligned. Then, those people + the AGI itself will work together to convince the rest of the world that it is aligned. Then it will take over, do bad stuff, etc. But the point is that even if we build unaligned AGI there will probably be a brief period where lots of high-status experts are saying that the AGI is aligned. I think we should clarify that such a situation doesn't count.

I just did a shallow investigation into whether or not this sort of thing has historical precedents: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TBY1wzAJUiw7yd8mcVVzmHdbdENtW1H0BP-8cS-kpgU/edit?usp=sharing Comments welcome! TL;DR: A similar Metaculus question prior to the Agricultural revolution would have resolved negative, but that's it: a similar Metaculus question prior to any other event (including the Industrial Revolution) would have resolved positive. (Edited because I embarrassingly switched positive and negative in the original version. The worst pos...

I expect that if an AI that can pass the turing test exists by 2029, the turing test will never be run, nor will the Long Now foundation be around to announce the results. How should this influence my forecast? Would such a case resolve the question positively, negatively, or ambiguously?

@Jgalt Can you explain why? Aliens vs. civil war seems like a pretty strange comparison to me; civil war should be several orders of magnitude more likely I'd say.

I don't like how I am now incentivised to guess 1% since that will almost surely get me some quick points, even though my true credence is more like 20%. Were I to guess 20%, it would probably stay below 3% anyway since I'm so outnumbered, and I would just lose points even if I'm actually right.

I'm making a bunch of predictions this New Year's Eve (it'll be fun!) in honor of my newborn daughter. They are mostly of the form "When she hits her 6th/11th/16th/21st birthday, ..." and they mostly fit the theme of "Cyberpunk." I'm sharing the spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PmMRSgwdmRWr7xy7gXUFfE1-O36cpPfLgKflp_JFT1I/edit?usp=sharing) in case anyone wants to write in their own credences, leave comments (i.e. suggestions for more things to add, or ways to clarify resolution conditions) and also in case anything on it seems fu...
My baby daughter was born two weeks ago, and in honor of her existence I'm building a list of about 100 technology-related forecasting questions, which will resolve in 5, 10, and 20 years. Questions like "By the time my daughter is 5/10/20 years old, the average US citizen will be able to hail a driverless taxi in most major US cities." (The idea is, tying it to my daughter's age will make it more fun and also increase the likelihood that I actually go back and look at it 10 years later.) I'd love it if the questions were online somewhere so other peopl...
I think people aren't reading the resolution criteria carefully: "In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count." Boston Dynamics Spot robot already meets this requirement, except that it's not humanoid. Boston Dynamics Atlas robot already meets this requirement, except that it's not for sale. Is it that hard to believe that Telsa could catch up to Boston Dynamics in a few years? Now, if t...

Any ideas why progress was so much faster than people expected?

This comment was originally posted on January 14, 2022

How much will funding for biorisk prevention increase after coronavirus?

We could look at specific organizations, like the CDC, and see if their 2021 budgets are substantially bigger than their 2020 or 2019 budgets.

— edited by kokotajlod

It feels a bit weird to me to read this question, with its excellent summary of some reasons to think the answer will be Yes, but not a word of argument that the answer will be No. Surely there is some other Medium post out there with arguments for No, right? Anyhow I don't mean this as a major critique, I just wanted to flag that it would be nice to have both sides represented at the top.

@notany Wait, starting to plateau? What do you mean? Last I checked there was no sign of the trend even slowing down, much less plateauing! Moreover the theory results suggest that in the near future the trend will slow down but not plateau, so even if there is a slight dip it's probably just that.

@kokotajlod Come to think of it, maybe that is what they are doing lol. They are explicitly sticking their necks out and making all this noise about the imminent invasion, so that Putin will be tempted to make them look like fools by calling it off. Looking like fools is the price they are willing to pay to prevent the invasion. :)

(I don't actually believe this theory but it seems more plausible than yours!)

@(Jgalt) Arguments I know of against the theory that vast numbers of people have already been exposed unknowingly: --This would predict that the vast majority of confirmed cases would have no apparent connection to a previous confirmed case. But IIRC that isn't true; a substantial fraction of confirmed cases did have contact with someone else confirmed at some point in the past two weeks. (South Korea should have data on this, right? They've got that app.) --This would predict that the infection fatality rate is tiny. But there are several communities ...
@(Tamay) https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/07/ml-enhanced-code-completion-improves.html "With 10k+ Google-internal developers using the completion setup in their IDE, we measured a user acceptance rate of 25-34%. We determined that the transformer-based hybrid semantic ML code completion completes >3% of code, while reducing the coding iteration time for Googlers by 6% (at a 90% confidence level). The size of the shift corresponds to typical effects observed for transformational features (e.g., key framework) that typically affect only a subpopulation, wher...