Just wanted to say I love this question so much.
Just sold 2 shares at 423. Should resolve positive...
@Jgalt If the office is just renamed, and there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, I would intend for that not to trigger resolution. The question is aimed to resolve if there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.
538 just posted a brief analysis of the recent trend in the polling average.
@ege_erdil I agree this is an important consideration, and I don't know the best way to handle situations such as a schism or rival claimants to the position. I ask for your and the community's suggestions for how to handle this and any other edge cases, in the hopes of avoiding an ambiguous resolution.
@ok I think they should settle this by an ice hockey game between the four nations.
@krtnu I agree, that is a possibility. My guess is they are still busy fighting the fires and just haven't noticed that oversight yet. But I agree if CZU never shows up on the list to resolve ambiguous. Can you make the edit?
@Sylvain Yes, that's correct. Thanks!
@krtnu Sounds good. Hopefully it won't become an issue.
Update: CZU is now on the list.
— edited by kjz
Interestingly, for both the community and Metaculus predictions, the resolution date is very close to the earliest median prediction over the course of the question (after initial stabilization), which looks like Dec. 27 for the community and Jan. 3 for the Metaculus predictions. Has anyone noticed this pattern before? In a way, it's quite impressive!
@casens Mostly curiosity about whether today's events would affect his approval rating, when many previous important seeming events failed to affect it much.
This is amazing, it's going on sale!
@Jgalt That's essentially one of the ways I see the last day playing out: Trump "revealing" his whole presidency has just been a reality show all along to the screams of the crowd outside the White House.
@ege_erdil I'll admit up front I'm not very familiar with the examples you pointed out. But here is the first question I would ask (which I don't know the answer to one way or the other): did China in 1915 have a Constitution or similar document outlining the succession process? Did the events you describe take place within that legally described system? These are the kinds of considerations I would want to inform a resolution of this type of question.