@admins I propose affirmative resolution. A precise number may not be possible because it changes daily, but 10k has been surpassed. [Wikipedia](en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Casualties_and_humanitarian_impact) compiled the following: * 7096 civilian deaths are reported * Russia reports 1300 deaths in the Russian military * Ukraine reports 1300 deaths in the Ukrainian military * 700 deaths are reported among Donetsk forces The total of those 4 numbers (10.4k) is generally considered to be a very low estimate. Indeed, th...
I propose adding [Shaun Chamberlin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaun_Chamberlin) or David Fleming as a public figure -- or both men, if we use Chamberlin's published versions of unpublished Fleming essays. [Fleming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Fleming_%28writer%22) was a British polymath, political economist, and cultural historian involved with the Green Party, Transition movement, and climate activism. When he died in 2010, he left behind an unpublished manuscript that he had been working on for 20 years, which few people had read. Chamber...


I heartily endorse your lesson about "the" Ukraine.

However, just for now, I favor keeping Kiev over K'yiv or Kyiv. If this were a foreign-policy think tank, I'd need to reconsider.

I'm just one user here of course, and this is just one opinion. Any of us at any time can use other spellings.

And I would be willing to change my screen name.

My understanding is that there's no apparent US presence on the ground in Afghanistan.

If anyone disagrees with this interpretation (based broadly on testimony before open sessions of congressional committees), please say so.

Some may have evidence, e.g., that

  • troops evacuated but also returned; or
  • troops falsely claimed to have evacuated

The res criteria indicate what kind of evidence to use.

My inclination is to seek negative resolution late on Thursday, so if there's disagreement, the admins may want to know


@sylvain @ClayGraubard Each of you received many upvotes for comments on this page (and deservedly so). I was curious if some moderator or administrator might know the site's all-time highs for things like * upvotes on a question page * upvotes on a comment on a question page * upvotes on a comment posted *after the question had resolved* * total number of predictORs on a question that took predictions for only 10 weeks or so * total number of predictions on a relatively short-term question That's a nonspecific list. As of this writing, 1151 pe...
If possible, could resolution date be 3 weeks into January? [In at least 1 year in the historical stats (sorry I don't have the link), the percentage calculations came out after 2-3 weeks, which makes sense because "they" calculate the %age for all 507 components of the index and then check their calculations.] It's not just of academic interest; mutual fund holdings often are structured to match the %ages of stocks in the index, and they want to realign properly. [In the event that the tournament must wrap up on the first of the year, then this req...
@(schkolne) There's no reason to update the legacy site: those who shift over to the old version will have done so deliberately, and they can deliberate about whether they can adjust a prediction with only the tools that were available last month. Please do -- soon -- whatever is easiest? Put up the old site. Have data flow in such a way that forecasts entered in one interface will show up on both. Then deal with the niceties. You may find that users make better suggestions for the new interface if they can work in either interface, as they choose, on...
@(kievalet) Pinging @admins for resolution (if the following meets the criteria) * [Statement](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1484) from SWIFT about disconnecting 7 banks uses past tense. * The banks are: * Bank Otkritie * Novikombank * Promsvyazbank * Bank Rossiya * Sovcombank * VNESHECONOMBANK (VEB) * VTB BANK * Excerpt from the statement: > [UPDATED 12 MARCH 2022] > **Diplomatic decisions taken by the European Union, in consultation with the** United Kingdom, Canada and the **United...

Summary to date:

  1. Lithuania issued a government statement as contemplated by the resolution instructions (see comments from 3 weeks back)

2 & 3: apparently Bulgaria & Poland are refusing to pay for their gas in roubles. (See recent comments)

If so, that would make 3 countries that stop paying Russia for gas before 2023.

If we get government statements from Poland & Bulgaria, I think that resolves the question as of whenever the gas stops flowing? Or, do we wait to see if they start buying Russian gas again?

— edited by kievalet

How many valid entries did you get? @yshemesh

@(Charles) I provided evidence about a low-income NJ county where school staff had trouble getting appointments; evidence that in the Washington D.C. public schools, you couldn't try for an appointment until you had received an email telling you it was your turn; evidence of supply problems in Los Angeles County. I think I also posted info about a county that had 5 vaccine sites as of late March. Many people there don't drive. There's ample public transportation in Jersey, except during pandemics. So people on a teacher-aide salary were kinda disadvant...

Per a ruling by its Parliamentarian, the Senate is now allotted a couple more opportunities during each Congress to craft bills that won't need a supermajority.

The new rule-interpretation leaves intact the 60-vote requirement, for bills that don't qualify for an exemption. But by giving the majority a way to get bills voted on, it may alter the urgency felt by the filibuster-reform backers.

CDC data tracker shows 3300 US cases of B.1.1.7 spread over 47 states, D.C., & P.R. (Vermont, Oklahoma & S. Dakota have kept it away so far)

The original strain accounts for less than half of NYC cases now, as 2 variants move through the community. https://gothamist.com/news/health-officials-c…

I don't know of any COVID-linked U.S. lockdowns right now that encompass millions of people.

As discussed on this page, Israel reached agreements with other nations in the last few months, assisted by Jared Kushner of the United States government. Mr. Kushner has left government service, his political mentor faces trial, and Israel's Knesset isn't taking any historic steps just now. Agreements between the U.S. & UAE, and between the Americans & the Saudis, have been suspended pending review. I don't think the Saudis will sign anything with Israel in the next 5 weeks. https://www.haaretz.com/amp/us-news/.premium-report-biden-freezes-f-35-sale...
@(Uncle Jeff) > You all have missed 292 comments ***all*** written by people who hadn't noticed that this question calls for people's preferences as to outcome [votes], rather than calling for predictions about something that happened in China [forecasts]? "All"? For anecdotal reasons, I think that's inapplicable. As for the points estimate, sometimes people notice that they got more points than they thought possible, and sometimes people notice that they got fewer. And sometimes everything is consistent. It's more common to see people mention one of...

This resolves negative @admins because none of the news services says it.

How can Metaculus predict below 1%? Community can't get that low.

EDIT: Metaculus forecast is now 1%, which is in-range. (It had been 0.7, but maybe the absentee ballots hhadnt been counted?)

— edited by kievalet

80.6 million completed

4.4 million needed for resolution

I couldn't squeeze the sliders together sufficiently to put all my points on April 18-21, but I think 85 M will be completed in the next 100 hours.

> Reports may come directly from individual country’s governments who are accepting refugees, or may come from at least five reputable media outlets all confirming at least a total of 5 million refugees. In the fog of war, is the media the best source of numbers? I'm curious that there's not a single NGO on the list of usable sources: UNHCR, UN, Red Cross, church-related groups that have been in these countries a long time, no one? Jeff Bezos's foundation maybe? I hear he gave $50M to Ukraine relief. Even orphanages can estimate the number of refugees....

NPR reports on Washington post investigation:

New York's 'Vaccine Czar' Called County Officials To Assess Their Loyalty To Cuomo


At a time when county officials were desperate to get COVID vaccine for county residents, some thought criticizing Cuomo would impair their efforts to get vaccine from the State.