@(ClayGraubard) [English language version of Statement](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423) re "partial cutoff", issued by U.S., U.K., Germany, among others As I read the resolution criteria, it resolves affirmative if "Russian banks" are cut out of the SWIFT system. I guess that could mean either "all Russian banks" or "an indefinite number of Russian banks"; but in light of the initial reluctance of some allies to axe *any* Russian bank, it seems to me that shutting out the Central Bank & a couple of big banks is...

The resolution criteria appear to include calendar 2022, not just certain months.

@Eltanin @admins

Question can resolve negative as of today.

— edited by kievalet


I think a second or 2 closer to midnight would have been defensible, considering some events in China, Russia, U.S., India & the climate summit. I was a bit too confident that they'd do that (64%). Community had a 58% median with a 61% mean; Metaculus was at 63%.

Should Harry Enten have a page? ( He announces many forecasts.) Here's the type of thing he writes: *Given that two of the last four presidents (Clinton and Trump) had net approval ratings gains of about 10 points or more between this point and when they faced reelection, **it would be silly to bet against** Biden doing the same.* (So we might ask "will Biden's net approval increase by 10% between [date of article] and [date Biden leaves the race, whether by conceding, by winning, or by not being the nominee]", I guess.) I'm not proposing that questio...

The surgery was on a Friday (4 weeks ago, yesterday). (There's evideo from the operating theatre, if anyone needs to see.)

So when could one properly say "recipient has survived 30 days"?

I think both Sunday (tomorrow) & Monday have merit.

— edited by kievalet

Resolves April 9 @admins

First dose: 32,010,244

Unless you prefer waiting a week for the data to be polished (cumulative thru April 8 was 31.9M, so 1st doses in the Holiday week would only have to increase by 100k to change the resolution)

Then again, I suppose you could resolve based on the website & re-resolve if they change the dates?


President Biden has chosen to nominate appellate court judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court

— edited by kievalet

@(Anthony) @Rexracer63 I may not be searching the FCC database properly but i got no hits. So I loiked around on laypeople's sites. UV radiation appears to be trusted to kill SARS-Cov-2. But I got the impression that with other waves, what disrupted RNA was heat × time. Heating a wet object to 60° for 5 mins is thought to sterilize that object. Radiation heats the water that is serving as a liquid medium for the virus. And there are currently microwave devices that heat wet things. COVID 19 has trouble surviving on a dry object regardless of radiati...

If Putin's evil forces capture Ukraine's capital, i vow not to change my screen name to moskvalet.

May need to consider kyivalet though.

Would it be a good idea to let admins/mods denote a comment on a question page as "pinned" (meaning, it's visible without scrolling)? If there's nothing else more important, the person who sets the question "live" could pin a comment reading: Scheduled:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|------- | Aug 2021| Dec 2021|Jan 2022 And an additional table could be added ... Actual:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|------- | Sept 2021| Nov 2021|Nov 2022 Or Actual:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|-----...
**Resolves negative** per resolution criteria because the 23rd has come & gone. @admins @johnnycaffeine > This question **resolves on 23 November ** 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order. > * ***By 23 November 2021** will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19*? > This question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules **by 23 November** 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Cons...

@casens "The question resolves positively if Democrats hold 51 seats or more in the Senate according to the official election results." Republicans have won 50 out of 100, making it mathematically impossible for the non-Republicans to win 51. So you seem to be right. Unfortunately, in the contest, I assigned a 63% probability to "yes", so it would benefit me if "50 + Vice President" did not mean "No"!

@(alwaysrinse) Is Kherson under Russian control by now? Anyway, I'm thinking * Russia controls in March * Kherson * Mariupol * Russia has a distinct chance of controlling in April * Kharkhiv * L'viv * Russia will surround before June * K'yiv * Russia may not attempt full control pre-June * Odesa * L'viv (not a typo; I don't know Putin's strategy) But control can change hands in war. This forecast is not limited to taking control; it's about holding control of 3 cities, simultaneously, for 48 hours, before June. There a...

Community has 34% probability mass on 3, which includes

  • Pfizer-BioNtech
  • Moderna
  • Johnson & Johnson - Janssen

If CDC were going to vote on a 4th vaccine in June, the meeting would have been announced already.

Resolves as 3, @admins (whenever appropriate).


Possible early close because the milestone was reached last week?

It looks like 15 April intraday to me


82.9 million

Conflict of interest: truncation of the question would leave me with far fewer "points". [ETA: or maybe it's more points? I'm not a math person. My points would be different tho.]

— edited by kievalet

@admins I propose affirmative resolution. A precise number may not be possible because it changes daily, but 10k has been surpassed. [Wikipedia](en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Casualties_and_humanitarian_impact) compiled the following: * 7096 civilian deaths are reported * Russia reports 1300 deaths in the Russian military * Ukraine reports 1300 deaths in the Ukrainian military * 700 deaths are reported among Donetsk forces The total of those 4 numbers (10.4k) is generally considered to be a very low estimate. Indeed, th...
I propose adding [Shaun Chamberlin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaun_Chamberlin) or David Fleming as a public figure -- or both men, if we use Chamberlin's published versions of unpublished Fleming essays. [Fleming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Fleming_%28writer%22) was a British polymath, political economist, and cultural historian involved with the Green Party, Transition movement, and climate activism. When he died in 2010, he left behind an unpublished manuscript that he had been working on for 20 years, which few people had read. Chamber...


I heartily endorse your lesson about "the" Ukraine.

However, just for now, I favor keeping Kiev over K'yiv or Kyiv. If this were a foreign-policy think tank, I'd need to reconsider.

I'm just one user here of course, and this is just one opinion. Any of us at any time can use other spellings.

And I would be willing to change my screen name.