Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.
Can that function be available at other times as well?
I propose a positive resolution @admins .
I'll get 1 point!!
Resolves April 9 @admins
First dose: 32,010,244
Unless you prefer waiting a week for the data to be polished (cumulative thru April 8 was 31.9M, so 1st doses in the Holiday week would only have to increase by 100k to change the resolution)
Then again, I suppose you could resolve based on the website & re-resolve if they change the dates?
@casens "The question resolves positively if Democrats hold 51 seats or more in the Senate according to the official election results." Republicans have won 50 out of 100, making it mathematically impossible for the non-Republicans to win 51. So you seem to be right. Unfortunately, in the contest, I assigned a 63% probability to "yes", so it would benefit me if "50 + Vice President" did not mean "No"!
Community has 34% probability mass on 3, which includes
If CDC were going to vote on a 4th vaccine in June, the meeting would have been announced already.
Resolves as 3, @admins (whenever appropriate).
Possible early close because the milestone was reached last week?
It looks like 15 April intraday to me
Conflict of interest: truncation of the question would leave me with far fewer "points". [ETA: or maybe it's more points? I'm not a math person. My points would be different tho.]
— edited by kievalet
Per a ruling by its Parliamentarian, the Senate is now allotted a couple more opportunities during each Congress to craft bills that won't need a supermajority.
The new rule-interpretation leaves intact the 60-vote requirement, for bills that don't qualify for an exemption. But by giving the majority a way to get bills voted on, it may alter the urgency felt by the filibuster-reform backers.
CDC data tracker shows 3300 US cases of B.1.1.7 spread over 47 states, D.C., & P.R. (Vermont, Oklahoma & S. Dakota have kept it away so far)
The original strain accounts for less than half of NYC cases now, as 2 variants move through the community. https://gothamist.com/news/health-officials-c…
I don't know of any COVID-linked U.S. lockdowns right now that encompass millions of people.
So our forecast is "will it stop before 2023"?
This resolves negative @admins because none of the news services says it.
How can Metaculus predict below 1%? Community can't get that low.
EDIT: Metaculus forecast is now 1%, which is in-range. (It had been 0.7, but maybe the absentee ballots hhadnt been counted?)
— edited by kievalet