Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.

Can that function be available at other times as well?

31 days after application for EUA, Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine (2 doses, 3 weeks apart) [has been authorized for US residents who have turned 12](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-emergency-use). > The immune response to the vaccine in 190 participants, 12 through 15 years of age, was compared to the immune response of 170 participants, 16 through 25 years of age. In this analysis, the immune response of adolescents was non-inferior to (at least as good as) the imm...

I propose a positive resolution @admins .

I'll get 1 point!!

@(johnnycaffeine) wrote: > a chance to score some points around here ###I can't disagree with that. Look, we know Metaculus @moderators & @admins are maintaining the site very smoothly. But they're up against a reality: when someone joins the site and tries to predict things, they don't just want points. They NEED points. *Achieving 100 or 200 (or whatever) points is a prerequisite for being granted such forecasting aids as hiding Community predictions, or seeing their personal calibrations in graphic form.* But unless there are short-term question...

Resolves April 9 @admins

First dose: 32,010,244

Unless you prefer waiting a week for the data to be polished (cumulative thru April 8 was 31.9M, so 1st doses in the Holiday week would only have to increase by 100k to change the resolution)

Then again, I suppose you could resolve based on the website & re-resolve if they change the dates?

Would it be a good idea to let admins/mods denote a comment on a question page as "pinned" (meaning, it's visible without scrolling)? If there's nothing else more important, the person who sets the question "live" could pin a comment reading: Scheduled:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|------- | Aug 2021| Dec 2021|Jan 2022 And an additional table could be added ... Actual:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|------- | Sept 2021| Nov 2021|Nov 2022 Or Actual:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|-----...

@casens "The question resolves positively if Democrats hold 51 seats or more in the Senate according to the official election results." Republicans have won 50 out of 100, making it mathematically impossible for the non-Republicans to win 51. So you seem to be right. Unfortunately, in the contest, I assigned a 63% probability to "yes", so it would benefit me if "50 + Vice President" did not mean "No"!

Community has 34% probability mass on 3, which includes

  • Pfizer-BioNtech
  • Moderna
  • Johnson & Johnson - Janssen

If CDC were going to vote on a 4th vaccine in June, the meeting would have been announced already.

Resolves as 3, @admins (whenever appropriate).


Possible early close because the milestone was reached last week?

It looks like 15 April intraday to me


82.9 million

Conflict of interest: truncation of the question would leave me with far fewer "points". [ETA: or maybe it's more points? I'm not a math person. My points would be different tho.]

— edited by kievalet

@(schkolne) There's no reason to update the legacy site: those who shift over to the old version will have done so deliberately, and they can deliberate about whether they can adjust a prediction with only the tools that were available last month. Please do -- soon -- whatever is easiest? Put up the old site. Have data flow in such a way that forecasts entered in one interface will show up on both. Then deal with the niceties. You may find that users make better suggestions for the new interface if they can work in either interface, as they choose, on...

How many valid entries did you get? @yshemesh

@(Charles) I provided evidence about a low-income NJ county where school staff had trouble getting appointments; evidence that in the Washington D.C. public schools, you couldn't try for an appointment until you had received an email telling you it was your turn; evidence of supply problems in Los Angeles County. I think I also posted info about a county that had 5 vaccine sites as of late March. Many people there don't drive. There's ample public transportation in Jersey, except during pandemics. So people on a teacher-aide salary were kinda disadvant...

Per a ruling by its Parliamentarian, the Senate is now allotted a couple more opportunities during each Congress to craft bills that won't need a supermajority.

The new rule-interpretation leaves intact the 60-vote requirement, for bills that don't qualify for an exemption. But by giving the majority a way to get bills voted on, it may alter the urgency felt by the filibuster-reform backers.

CDC data tracker shows 3300 US cases of B.1.1.7 spread over 47 states, D.C., & P.R. (Vermont, Oklahoma & S. Dakota have kept it away so far)

The original strain accounts for less than half of NYC cases now, as 2 variants move through the community. https://gothamist.com/news/health-officials-c…

I don't know of any COVID-linked U.S. lockdowns right now that encompass millions of people.

As discussed on this page, Israel reached agreements with other nations in the last few months, assisted by Jared Kushner of the United States government. Mr. Kushner has left government service, his political mentor faces trial, and Israel's Knesset isn't taking any historic steps just now. Agreements between the U.S. & UAE, and between the Americans & the Saudis, have been suspended pending review. I don't think the Saudis will sign anything with Israel in the next 5 weeks. https://www.haaretz.com/amp/us-news/.premium-report-biden-freezes-f-35-sale...
@(Uncle Jeff) > You all have missed 292 comments ***all*** written by people who hadn't noticed that this question calls for people's preferences as to outcome [votes], rather than calling for predictions about something that happened in China [forecasts]? "All"? For anecdotal reasons, I think that's inapplicable. As for the points estimate, sometimes people notice that they got more points than they thought possible, and sometimes people notice that they got fewer. And sometimes everything is consistent. It's more common to see people mention one of...

This resolves negative @admins because none of the news services says it.

How can Metaculus predict below 1%? Community can't get that low.

EDIT: Metaculus forecast is now 1%, which is in-range. (It had been 0.7, but maybe the absentee ballots hhadnt been counted?)

— edited by kievalet