Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.
Can that function be available at other times as well?
100 paratroopers can't take a 900k city
But I'm not trying to predict anyone "taking" anything. I'm predicting entry into a city by a specific number of opponents.
Resolves negative. Source: all of US cable TV
Please ping someone?
Recession later in the term does tend to make things tough for the incumbent. But there was a very painful recession 40 years ago, and Reagan was re-elected 2 years later. (Margaret Thatcher didn't lose her job either. And UK probably had it worse.)
The economic environment is one of the factors that help in predicting the incumbent's chances.
Is it possible/advisable for this to close on the occurrence of a specified event?
Just as a random example, if one somewhat-credible media report says 10k have been killed. It's insufficient for resolution but it probably indicates that resolution is nearing.
Regarding my view that (on 21 February at 0100 Kyiv time) it's too soon to resolve this ...
This question resolves positively if:
- representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation
- two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council
announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine
Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.
[Edited to delete January reference]
— edited by kievalet
I propose a positive resolution @admins .
I'll get 1 point!!
This seems to confirm 30-day function of a xenotransplanted heart
Joachim Denner, a transplantation specialist from the Free University of Berlin, commented:
“If we consider that the first human-to-human heart transplant in Germany was not successful even for 24 hours, the one-month survival time is a huge success in terms of xenotransplantations.”
50,000 is a big number. But they may have already surpassed 8000. And all those displaced Ukrainians are a tragedy that may have a death toll.
Russia is using big weaponry and poorly-trained ground forces. Ukraine has civilians making Molotov cocktails or getting in the path of a tank. Attrition is becoming a strategy.
Note: I have no reason to think this war will end soon. If you think it will end soon, 50k is probably unreachable.
There are new omicrons out there, spreading efficiently as omicron does. It's looking like "omicron" includes anything they choose to call "omicron"!
Who knows, they could just go to "omicron 1", omicron 2" etc. People don't freak out when they hear "omicron". Especially vaccinated ppl. It's not scary like Delta.
How many mutations can there be (compared to the "wild" strain) and still be considered "COVID19"? Is it bad to just start saying some new strain is "COVID22"?
Putin probably won't be toppled, and Navalny may not live long enough to grab the opportunity; but when a nation starts wars, weird things sometimes happen in domestic affairs.
I'm re-examining old forecasts about that part of the world.