Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.

Can that function be available at other times as well?


100 paratroopers can't take a 900k city

But I'm not trying to predict anyone "taking" anything. I'm predicting entry into a city by a specific number of opponents.

Resolves negative. Source: all of US cable TV

Please ping someone?


Recession later in the term does tend to make things tough for the incumbent. But there was a very painful recession 40 years ago, and Reagan was re-elected 2 years later. (Margaret Thatcher didn't lose her job either. And UK probably had it worse.)

The economic environment is one of the factors that help in predicting the incumbent's chances.

Is it possible/advisable for this to close on the occurrence of a specified event?

Just as a random example, if one somewhat-credible media report says 10k have been killed. It's insufficient for resolution but it probably indicates that resolution is nearing.

Regarding my view that (on 21 February at 0100 Kyiv time) it's too soon to resolve this ...

This question resolves positively if:

  1. representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation


  1. two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council


announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine


Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.

[Edited to delete January reference]

— edited by kievalet

For any significant (on-Earth) construction project: Will it finish by ddmmyyyy? When will it finish? What will be the estimated cost of completion, per (source)? This isn't intended to refer to tech devices, spacecraft, or other ballistic things. I had in mind a significant road/bridge, or desalination facility, or gates/dikes protecting low-lying cities, or economically/educatuonally important building; or monument, museum, mausoleum. Something around there. It has to be something we expect to have accurate info on during the prediction period....
If I imagine being a forecaster in September 1811, and I'm asked: * will British soldiers set fire to important buildings in Washington D.C. in the next 36 months? and * within 50 years, will the residents of Charleston, SC, use artillery to threaten the safety of US Army personnel at that nice fort that protects its important harbor? I would consider both attacks to be absurdly unlikely, and 3 months before my deadline, I'd say the odds were 6:1 against either thing happening; because on one hand, why would those people do that warlike thing, but on t...
31 days after application for EUA, Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine (2 doses, 3 weeks apart) [has been authorized for US residents who have turned 12](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-emergency-use). > The immune response to the vaccine in 190 participants, 12 through 15 years of age, was compared to the immune response of 170 participants, 16 through 25 years of age. In this analysis, the immune response of adolescents was non-inferior to (at least as good as) the imm...

I propose a positive resolution @admins .

I'll get 1 point!!

> ***When will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human?*** _A pig organ was transplanted last month into a human named David Bennett, Sr._ > The organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. _The organ was a heart._ > We'll define "successful" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation. _Xenotransplantation was performed on 7 January_; the organ (according to information disclosed by the hospital) has functioned since then. Therefore, I think resolution became appropriate on the weeken...

@kievalet @admins

This seems to confirm 30-day function of a xenotransplanted heart

Joachim Denner, a transplantation specialist from the Free University of Berlin, commented:

“If we consider that the first human-to-human heart transplant in Germany was not successful even for 24 hours, the one-month survival time is a huge success in terms of xenotransplantations.”

@admins (or mods?): Classes begin in 36 hours. COVID tests are being given, team practices for spring sports are underway, dorms are open. The only question is, how much instruction will be in-person. There's no real danger of instruction being cancelled. I was curious if the question should close before classes begin? Currently, it's scheduled to close at resolution time. That changes this from a "forecast" question to a "nowcast" question: if on January 31, most students are participating in classes via Zoom, we'll all just predict 90%. That may ha...
@(johnnycaffeine) wrote: > a chance to score some points around here ###I can't disagree with that. Look, we know Metaculus @moderators & @admins are maintaining the site very smoothly. But they're up against a reality: when someone joins the site and tries to predict things, they don't just want points. They NEED points. *Achieving 100 or 200 (or whatever) points is a prerequisite for being granted such forecasting aids as hiding Community predictions, or seeing their personal calibrations in graphic form.* But unless there are short-term question...

50,000 is a big number. But they may have already surpassed 8000. And all those displaced Ukrainians are a tragedy that may have a death toll.

Russia is using big weaponry and poorly-trained ground forces. Ukraine has civilians making Molotov cocktails or getting in the path of a tank. Attrition is becoming a strategy.

Note: I have no reason to think this war will end soon. If you think it will end soon, 50k is probably unreachable.

There are new omicrons out there, spreading efficiently as omicron does. It's looking like "omicron" includes anything they choose to call "omicron"!

Who knows, they could just go to "omicron 1", omicron 2" etc. People don't freak out when they hear "omicron". Especially vaccinated ppl. It's not scary like Delta.

How many mutations can there be (compared to the "wild" strain) and still be considered "COVID19"? Is it bad to just start saying some new strain is "COVID22"?

Putin probably won't be toppled, and Navalny may not live long enough to grab the opportunity; but when a nation starts wars, weird things sometimes happen in domestic affairs.

I'm re-examining old forecasts about that part of the world.