Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.

Can that function be available at other times as well?

Resolves negative. Source: all of US cable TV

Please ping someone?

For any significant (on-Earth) construction project: Will it finish by ddmmyyyy? When will it finish? What will be the estimated cost of completion, per (source)? This isn't intended to refer to tech devices, spacecraft, or other ballistic things. I had in mind a significant road/bridge, or desalination facility, or gates/dikes protecting low-lying cities, or economically/educatuonally important building; or monument, museum, mausoleum. Something around there. It has to be something we expect to have accurate info on during the prediction period....
If I imagine being a forecaster in September 1811, and I'm asked: * will British soldiers set fire to important buildings in Washington D.C. in the next 36 months? and * within 50 years, will the residents of Charleston, SC, use artillery to threaten the safety of US Army personnel at that nice fort that protects its important harbor? I would consider both attacks to be absurdly unlikely, and 3 months before my deadline, I'd say the odds were 6:1 against either thing happening; because on one hand, why would those people do that warlike thing, but on t...
31 days after application for EUA, Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine (2 doses, 3 weeks apart) [has been authorized for US residents who have turned 12](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-emergency-use). > The immune response to the vaccine in 190 participants, 12 through 15 years of age, was compared to the immune response of 170 participants, 16 through 25 years of age. In this analysis, the immune response of adolescents was non-inferior to (at least as good as) the imm...

I propose a positive resolution @admins .

I'll get 1 point!!

@admins (or mods?): Classes begin in 36 hours. COVID tests are being given, team practices for spring sports are underway, dorms are open. The only question is, how much instruction will be in-person. There's no real danger of instruction being cancelled. I was curious if the question should close before classes begin? Currently, it's scheduled to close at resolution time. That changes this from a "forecast" question to a "nowcast" question: if on January 31, most students are participating in classes via Zoom, we'll all just predict 90%. That may ha...
@(johnnycaffeine) wrote: > a chance to score some points around here ###I can't disagree with that. Look, we know Metaculus @moderators & @admins are maintaining the site very smoothly. But they're up against a reality: when someone joins the site and tries to predict things, they don't just want points. They NEED points. *Achieving 100 or 200 (or whatever) points is a prerequisite for being granted such forecasting aids as hiding Community predictions, or seeing their personal calibrations in graphic form.* But unless there are short-term question...


"When will there be a house of worship [not a nondenominational chapel] in [a place that has none]"


-- Antarctica

-- off-earth

-- in orbit

The resolution criteria appear to include calendar 2022, not just certain months.


I think a second or 2 closer to midnight would have been defensible, considering some events in China, Russia, U.S., India & the climate summit. I was a bit too confident that they'd do that (64%). Community had a 58% median with a 61% mean; Metaculus was at 63%.

Resolves April 9 @admins

First dose: 32,010,244

Unless you prefer waiting a week for the data to be polished (cumulative thru April 8 was 31.9M, so 1st doses in the Holiday week would only have to increase by 100k to change the resolution)

Then again, I suppose you could resolve based on the website & re-resolve if they change the dates?

@(Anthony) @Rexracer63 I may not be searching the FCC database properly but i got no hits. So I loiked around on laypeople's sites. UV radiation appears to be trusted to kill SARS-Cov-2. But I got the impression that with other waves, what disrupted RNA was heat × time. Heating a wet object to 60° for 5 mins is thought to sterilize that object. Radiation heats the water that is serving as a liquid medium for the virus. And there are currently microwave devices that heat wet things. COVID 19 has trouble surviving on a dry object regardless of radiati...

If Putin's evil forces capture Ukraine's capital, i vow not to change my screen name to moskvalet.

May need to consider kyivalet though.

Would it be a good idea to let admins/mods denote a comment on a question page as "pinned" (meaning, it's visible without scrolling)? If there's nothing else more important, the person who sets the question "live" could pin a comment reading: Scheduled:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|------- | Aug 2021| Dec 2021|Jan 2022 And an additional table could be added ... Actual:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|------- | Sept 2021| Nov 2021|Nov 2022 Or Actual:| open | close | resolve ---------|-----|-----|-----...
**Resolves negative** per resolution criteria because the 23rd has come & gone. @admins @johnnycaffeine > This question **resolves on 23 November ** 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order. > * ***By 23 November 2021** will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19*? > This question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules **by 23 November** 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Cons...

@casens "The question resolves positively if Democrats hold 51 seats or more in the Senate according to the official election results." Republicans have won 50 out of 100, making it mathematically impossible for the non-Republicans to win 51. So you seem to be right. Unfortunately, in the contest, I assigned a 63% probability to "yes", so it would benefit me if "50 + Vice President" did not mean "No"!

Community has 34% probability mass on 3, which includes

  • Pfizer-BioNtech
  • Moderna
  • Johnson & Johnson - Janssen

If CDC were going to vote on a 4th vaccine in June, the meeting would have been announced already.

Resolves as 3, @admins (whenever appropriate).


Possible early close because the milestone was reached last week?

It looks like 15 April intraday to me


82.9 million

Conflict of interest: truncation of the question would leave me with far fewer "points". [ETA: or maybe it's more points? I'm not a math person. My points would be different tho.]

— edited by kievalet