I am completely surprised by the idea that European should mean “member of the EU”. Isn’t the better phrase for that “member of the EU”?

What are the UK, Norway, Switzerland, etc. if not European? The hard questions on “European” should be Turkey — not Norway.

Unless I am reading this incorrectly, it looks like the following sales through the end of June: "Cumulatively, 419,039 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2022."

I am, therefore, moving up substantially above the community median.

The sticking point for this, more than the damages threshold, will likely be attribution -- to the Russian government or a Russian-sponsored group, by US intelligence. I would refer others to [this report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46974), which records past U.S. cyberattack attributions that I believe would pass this bar. We might expect the U.S. government to be more aggressive with attribution in this context, in line with how U.S. intelligence spent so much effort/credibility detailing Russia's imminent attack plans in the first...


The volatility of these futures looks more like a crypto market than a critical energy resource. I think your heuristic of deferring to thickly traded WTI futures is a sound one, but it is fascinating to note that today's December 22 WTI Futures price has risen to the community median of ~$82/83.

Where next in 25% swings!

The number sold through the end of September is 643,000. Much of the community probability mass is below that.

Do we think that lifting the ban for all vaccinated travelers counts as "fully lift[ing]" the Schengen ban? I assume so, as the question seems to be aimed at addressing geographic scope rather than other qualifications/limitations.

So, "fully lifts" means lifts for all of the Schengen area countries rather than for all potential travelers from the Schengen area.

@(casens) Casey, which is the relevant precedent here, styles itself as preserving the major holdings of Roe. Casey, however, cut back on the scope of the right to abortion relative to Roe. Under Casey, the state may place restrictions and regulations on abortion prior to fetal viability as long as such restrictions are not an "undue burden" on the exercise of abortion rights. So, in the present case (Dobbs): The Court could rule that the MS statute is constitutional because, under Casey, it does not pose an "undue burden" on the right to abortion. Th...


I guess they liked me more! We’ll see if it matters.

“ Thank you for your message. The FRED Team has been notified that this dataset is in need of an update.

Have a great day, FRED Team”


I think this could an appropriate resolution. ‘Global’ price is always (nearly) identical and is for some reason massively delayed.

— edited by variouslymistaken

I think that the community is a bit low on this. We are already at over $3.6bn, which is up almost 3x compared to last year over 1H. And 2H is historically heavier than 1H -- it has much of the summer and the vast majority of the holiday blockbuster calendar. I am predicting around a median of ~8bn.


Wonderful, thanks! Missed the podium by 3 points, but hopefully I'll make a slightly stronger showing in the 2022 tourney :)

Why is it reopened? It’s just an auto-update to 1% at this point in the year.

@casens Thank you, sounds good! Two quick notes: 1) It doesn’t seem like recently resolved contest questions have been counting towards the contest point total, and 2) I worry that the UK net migration question may take 1 year+ longer to resolve than the rest.


The delay is odd. I’m not sure how much it matters, given that the price should resolve to within a few cents (or tenths of a cent) of the Oklahoma spot price, which has been updated: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCOILWTICO

We could wait a bit longer for the ‘global’ price, but it won’t vary much at all from the above.


Looks like 105,086 for the 7-day rolling at Flightrader.


Even the ~November update will just be provisional data for full year 2021. Any update in the first half of this year will only be regarding partial year 2021 data.

So, agreed! This one will take a while to resolve (and quite a bit longer than the other Economist 2021 questions, although WTI Oil Price/EU GDP are making it closer...).


Agreed on all counts. It's a great question @RyanBeck, and I think an ambiguous resolution would be appropriate in the stated circumstance.

I think we're really looking for something like the probability of a ceasefire between the ~existing Ukraine (including both government and fighting forces) and Russia, and this scenario would fall outside those bounds.

— edited by kgreene

@kievalet @casens @Rexracer63 @admins

Agreed. Resolving this week at 5.2% is an appropriate outcome from my perspective.