@fianxu

I am completely surprised by the idea that European should mean “member of the EU”. Isn’t the better phrase for that “member of the EU”?

What are the UK, Norway, Switzerland, etc. if not European? The hard questions on “European” should be Turkey — not Norway.

@(casens) Casey, which is the relevant precedent here, styles itself as preserving the major holdings of Roe. Casey, however, cut back on the scope of the right to abortion relative to Roe. Under Casey, the state may place restrictions and regulations on abortion prior to fetal viability as long as such restrictions are not an "undue burden" on the exercise of abortion rights. So, in the present case (Dobbs): The Court could rule that the MS statute is constitutional because, under Casey, it does not pose an "undue burden" on the right to abortion. Th...
The sticking point for this, more than the damages threshold, will likely be attribution -- to the Russian government or a Russian-sponsored group, by US intelligence. I would refer others to [this report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46974), which records past U.S. cyberattack attributions that I believe would pass this bar. We might expect the U.S. government to be more aggressive with attribution in this context, in line with how U.S. intelligence spent so much effort/credibility detailing Russia's imminent attack plans in the first...

@Rexracer63

I guess they liked me more! We’ll see if it matters.

“ Thank you for your message. The FRED Team has been notified that this dataset is in need of an update.

Have a great day, FRED Team”

@Rexracer63

I think this could an appropriate resolution. ‘Global’ price is always (nearly) identical and is for some reason massively delayed.

— edited by variouslymistaken

@Charles

The volatility of these futures looks more like a crypto market than a critical energy resource. I think your heuristic of deferring to thickly traded WTI futures is a sound one, but it is fascinating to note that today's December 22 WTI Futures price has risen to the community median of ~$82/83.

Where next in 25% swings!

@Rexracer63

The delay is odd. I’m not sure how much it matters, given that the price should resolve to within a few cents (or tenths of a cent) of the Oklahoma spot price, which has been updated: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCOILWTICO

We could wait a bit longer for the ‘global’ price, but it won’t vary much at all from the above.

@kievalet

Even the ~November update will just be provisional data for full year 2021. Any update in the first half of this year will only be regarding partial year 2021 data.

So, agreed! This one will take a while to resolve (and quite a bit longer than the other Economist 2021 questions, although WTI Oil Price/EU GDP are making it closer...).

@fianxu

Agreed on all counts. It's a great question @RyanBeck, and I think an ambiguous resolution would be appropriate in the stated circumstance.

I think we're really looking for something like the probability of a ceasefire between the ~existing Ukraine (including both government and fighting forces) and Russia, and this scenario would fall outside those bounds.

— edited by kgreene

@(fianxu) Thanks for your engagement on this! I see Turkey as the test case for a set of countries also including Georgia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Kazakhstan. These countries are outside the "base" definition of Europe (although certainly included on some accounts). In my view, they should not count towards resolution unless specifically named. For instance, I agree that [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_area#Definition) map from Wikipedia captures the liminal space well, and I am inclined to go with the core ...