Can we get a question on whether it will be determined who bombed NS1/2 today and who did it?

@Jgalt Any chance we can get a SBF convicted of fraud/jailed contract?

"Turkish presidential candidate Muharrem İnce, who was a significant opponent of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2018 election, has withdrawn from the upcoming contest just days before the vote. İnce's decision to step aside is expected to boost the chances of the main opposition contender, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu" - GPT summary of:

https://www.ft.com/content/90eb4460-e5c3-4b96…

@(exmateriae) as an observer these "last minute" moves are what makes the site so useful for me. I don't have the inclination or time to dive into whether the leak is real/meaningful, so this move tells me everything I needed to know. Thank you to the community for making it so useful and saving me 10k words of reading click bait news a year! I know that's not the purpose of the community, but I wanted to share. There are plenty of examples of breathless news not moving contracts, which is equally useful (JCPOA, Trump 24, etc). Thank you to the commun...
@(Joker) I believe only Russia broke the Budapest Memorandum, it was not a mutual defense treaty like NATO/Lisbon. Basically said no one will invade and if they do the rest will bring it up at the UN, which they did. New assurances would need to be much stronger. Ukraine didn't have as much bargaining power as 'giving up nukes' implies, they didn't have the codes and it would have taken them years of pariah status to reverse engineer the weapons... "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of...

@Jgalt fwiw he owns the company that makes Storybook Brawl, which was not disclosed in the story, and the leading theory on his weird tweet thread is that he is matching the posts with deletions of old tweets to keep his total number of tweets the same and trick bots that track deleted tweets.

So even the innocuous portions of that kid glove article seem nefarious.

Could there please be a feature to sort by unread comments? I organize by my upvoted questions and then I go through them manually to see if there are any with unread comments. Being able to have those with unread comments at the top would be amazing. This basically allows me to follow a ton of topics without wasting hours of my time because anytime there is meaningful news then there are typically comments. I know this isn't how most people on this board use the site, but I would bet there are a lot of 'lurkers' who use Metaculus as a high signal, l...

After the sinking of Moskva...

"Another consequence is that it is now far less likely that Moscow would launch any amphibious operation against a Ukrainian city such as Odessa."

https://news.yahoo.com/lost-warship-dents-rus…

Any chance we can get a "before 2024" version? Russian plans culminate this winter vis-a-vis EU gas and MENA grain exports.

"Maxar satellite imagery was collected at 10.56am this morning, showing a large deployment of Russian ground forces, containing hundreds of military vehicles, heading northeast of the Ukrainian city of Ivankiv and moving in the direction of Kyiv—approximately 40 miles away.

The convoy extended for more than 3.25 miles and contained fuel, logistics and armoured vehicles such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-live-updat…

@alwaysrinse It is very likely that Harvard is viewed as a first step by opponents of AA. In a ban scenario a series of victories would culminate in a ban. A prior could be gay marriage, which took five SC cases over longer than half a decade.

SBF arrested by Bahamanian authorities, they did so at the behest of the United States and will extradite him asap.

5.35% real return from start of '21 implies +6.0% annualized, include inflation at 2.9% (TIPS 10y breakeven) and you're at 8.9%. That seems crazy high when CAPE is pointing to zero or negative. I understand the arguments against (interest rates, dollar, etc), but this median implies a multi-decade valuation peak lasts for ten more years.

What am I missing?

(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden said he doesn’t think there are enough Democratic votes to raise tax rates in a deal on his economic agenda, but that he believes he’ll reach an agreement on the overall legislative package

Is it strange that the story of a lab escape seems to be gaining momentum and this market hasn't moved? Perhaps Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article was incredible compelling, also the Fauci testimony seems to be injecting questions into the narrative of the wet market:

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of…

https://www.axios.com/fauci-rand-paul-wuhan-l…

Could we please have a 2024 version? Could probably cut/paste the rules? Thanks, sorry to not be too helpful!

Having fun yet?

"Intriguingly, the little bank, Farmington, is now known as Moonstone, the name of a 1868 detective novel by Wilkie Collins, the plot of which revolves around a large diamond in a bank pledged as surety for various loans, which goes missing."