There remains a large gap between what New York's Democratic party establishment thinks and what the base thinks: > ["Most New York voters are satisfied with Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s explanation of the sexual harassment allegations made against him and barely a third want him to resign, a Siena College Research Institute poll released Monday morning found ... Critically for Cuomo, only 25 percent of Democrats are calling for him to go."](https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/03/15/siena-poll-just-35-percent-of-new-york-voters-want-cuomo...

@ethulin @Jgalt @predictors Sorry about the confusion, for this question we mean the date that the letter is sent to the United Nations. I've changed the resolution language to clarify this — "This would mean that the Biden administration is sending a letter to the United Nations with the intention to rejoin and resolves as the date that this letter is sent."

@(probahilliby) 1. If I understand [this article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7798963/) correctly, it is the WHO director general himself who makes the decision as to whether to declare a PHEIC, in large part on the basis of what the emergency committee recommends: "The responsibility of determining whether an event is within this category lies with the WHO Director General and requires the convening of a committee of experts—the IHR Emergency Committee. " 2. I think the purpose of Dr. Inglesby's thread is to *make the case* that monke...

See my reasoning here: https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro/status/1343…

Very encouraging [results from a Phase I trial](https://www.iavi.org/images/phocadownload/IAVI-G001-Fact-Sheet.pdf) for an HIV vaccine were recently presented at an HIV/AIDS conference. This trial used a novel approach pioneered by [Steichen et al.](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6470/eaax4380.editor-summary) in which broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are induced to target conserved regions of the rapidly-mutating and genetically diverse HIV-1 virus. The team behind this approach now expects to do another Phase I trial later in 2021 usi...

New [report](https://virological.org/t/multi-country-outbreak-of-monkeypox-virus-genetic-divergence-and-first-signs-of-microevolution/806) by a Portuguese team that has been sequencing cases. Of note: > We now release 9 additional genome sequences of Monkeypox virus causing a multi-country outbreak ... the outbreak virus diverges a mean of 50 SNPs from those 2018-2019 viruses (46 SNPs from the closest reference MPXV_UK_P2, MT903344.1), which is far more than one would expect considering the estimated substitution rate for Orthopoxviruses ... cannot disca...

"Organizers of this summer’s Tokyo Olympics sought on Wednesday to dispel confusion over whether the Games would proceed as scheduled, after a member of the local organizing committee said he would recommend a postponement of the event because of the coronavirus outbreak...Mr. Mori said that speculation about a possible postponement represented only the opinion of Mr. Takahashi, who apologized for his comments." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/sports/oly…

Resolves as 1,245. The community seems to have missed the timing and/or intensity of the delta-driven wave

@kievalet Essentially, what this question is trying to get at is whether Omicron spreads more readily than Delta – if this is the case, then we would expect it to overtake Delta as the predominant variant. Moreover, the degree to which it spreads more readily (if at all) will determine how rapidly it overtakes Delta, which is the motivation for this being a date range question as opposed to a binary question.

Hope this helps!

Biden says he doesn’t expect more travel restrictions

@(traviswfisher) Since resolution will come from confirmed case numbers as reported by the WHO, it is not up to us whether serology tests count. However, in its [most recent guidance on laboratory testing for COVID-19](https://www.who.int/publications-detail/laboratory-testing-for-2019-novel-coronavirus-in-suspected-human-cases-20200117) the WHO says that serology testing necessitates paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phase) for case confirmation, with "the initial sample collected in the first week of illness and the second ideally col...

~13% of samples collected on 8 December by the University of Washington were SGTF. SGTF is a leading indicator of Omicron (at this point, most SGTF cases are Omicron)

1968 — a year when widespread protests motivated by issues relating to race took place — was also when the third major pandemic influenza outbreak of the twentieth century occurred.

— edited by juancambeiro1015

@predictors I have added the following clarification, which you can find in the fine print. It should keep with the spirit of this question and allow for a more straightforward resolution. > A "significant reduction in immunity" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data ...

@fewerlacunae You can provide a link using markdown, see more here

e.g.: the tweet you linked to can be found here.

@predictors As per the suggestion of @kievalet I have resolved this ambiguously and re-launched this question here. The re-launched question will now resolve on the basis of a FRED page instead of Virginia's Employment Indicators reports given the issues with the latter (helpfully pointed out by @RyanBeck). The re-launched question will also resolve on the basis of data for December 2021 instead of all of Q4 2021.

Two updated modeling studies, [one mainly using data from Denmark/Switzerland](https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants/) and [another mostly using data from the UK](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) are confirming the original transmissibility estimates of B.1.1.7/501Y.V1. The lowest lower 95% CI bound of any of the approaches used in either of these studies estimates B.1.1.7 to have an increased transmissibility of 36% relative to preexisting variants. > Assuming an effective reproduction number Re around 1 and a genera...

@RyanBeck I think the two should be the same, but it's possible they'll be different if VDH changes the population figures it is using to 2020 instead of 2019. In any case, we'll stick with the denominator used here — 8,535,519 (2019 figure used by VDH) — for calculation of the percentage even if VDH starts tracking this percentage on its own & it differs.

@Sylvain @JasperGötting I agree that they all "provide immunity against COVID-19."

I'd even go so far as to say that even a few weeks after the first dose of these vaccines is sufficient to "provide immunity against COVID-19."

Fortunately, taking the date the 10M "fully vaccinated" threshold was reached (Jan 30) is also just a few weeks after the 10M "at least one dose" threshold was reached (Jan 5), so in my view it's reasonable to resolve this as Jan 30.

@alexlyzhov This is an interesting question and will continue to be relevant for months to come — what would you think of extending the amount of time it's open for? Say, until end of June?