1968 — a year when widespread protests motivated by issues relating to race took place — was also when the third major pandemic influenza outbreak of the twentieth century occurred.

— edited by juancambeiro1015

@predictors I have added the following clarification, which you can find in the fine print. It should keep with the spirit of this question and allow for a more straightforward resolution. > A "significant reduction in immunity" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data ...

@predictors As per the suggestion of @kievalet I have resolved this ambiguously and re-launched this question here. The re-launched question will now resolve on the basis of a FRED page instead of Virginia's Employment Indicators reports given the issues with the latter (helpfully pointed out by @RyanBeck). The re-launched question will also resolve on the basis of data for December 2021 instead of all of Q4 2021.

Two updated modeling studies, [one mainly using data from Denmark/Switzerland](https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants/) and [another mostly using data from the UK](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) are confirming the original transmissibility estimates of B.1.1.7/501Y.V1. The lowest lower 95% CI bound of any of the approaches used in either of these studies estimates B.1.1.7 to have an increased transmissibility of 36% relative to preexisting variants. > Assuming an effective reproduction number Re around 1 and a genera...

@Sylvain @JasperGötting I agree that they all "provide immunity against COVID-19."

I'd even go so far as to say that even a few weeks after the first dose of these vaccines is sufficient to "provide immunity against COVID-19."

Fortunately, taking the date the 10M "fully vaccinated" threshold was reached (Jan 30) is also just a few weeks after the 10M "at least one dose" threshold was reached (Jan 5), so in my view it's reasonable to resolve this as Jan 30.

@alexlyzhov This is an interesting question and will continue to be relevant for months to come — what would you think of extending the amount of time it's open for? Say, until end of June?

States have activated more National Guardsmen than any other time in U.S. history

[WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-struggles-with-data-needed-for-covid-19-vaccines-approval-11619721317): > AstraZeneca executives have struggled to pull together the full data necessary to apply for U.S. approval of its Covid-19 shot, according to people familiar with the matter, further delaying its efforts to secure the Food and Drug Administration’s go-ahead. > The company said last month that it would apply for what is known as emergency use authorization for its vaccine by mid-April. It has recently told U.S. officials it might need...

@predictors Please note that the CDC has released a major update that affects this question's resolution. We will resolve on the basis of the newly reported "fully vaccinated" figure. > 8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac… changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to "fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). Thi...

@DragonGod Given the urgency of this, I have gone ahead and approved it. I made some minor changes to your question.

@(ninjaedit) I agree. Iceland's high per capita testing is definitely useful but their case numbers are just too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. I am most curious as to why their analysis doesn't take a closer look at the data coming out of South Korea, which I think may be the most informative of any country. South Korea's CDC recently released a [report on its first 7,755 confirmed cases](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036368v1) and found the CFR to be 0.85%. If we take this value and combine it with estimates for the ...

Novavax Covid-19 vaccine highly effective in late-stage trial, long-awaited results show

Novavax says it "will file with several drug regulators, including the FDA, in the third quarter"

Here's an outage map that covers most of the NYC metro area. Only ~3k customers of 3.5M are out of power as of 5PM EST.

Lauren Gardner, the JHU professor behind the site: "I think we’ll be tracking the outbreak for a year."

@Jgalt If this is true, then I'm not sure why North Korea would confirm any cases going forward since it has already failed to do so?

"For such students, school may be the only place they can get three hot meals a day and medical care, and even wash their dirty laundry...That is why the city’s public schools will probably stay open even if the new coronavirus becomes more widespread in New York. Richard A. Carranza, the schools chancellor, said earlier this week that he considered long-term closings an 'extreme' measure and a 'last resort'...There are no plans to shut schools down, and Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Friday that none of the city’s 1.1 million public school students had sh...

President Trump has reportedly been in the White House's underground bunker this weekend for an unspecified amount of time. This comes as Washington D.C. has seen intense protests.

Political analyst Charlie Cook: "Today there is more than a one-in-three chance that Democrats will win a trifecta in November, the White House, the Senate and the House."

@predictors Please note the data adjustments that have affected this vaccination data, with the current value for % fully vaccinated in the 12-15 age group in VA being 49.3% as of 10 September. I've extended the time this question and another similar question on vaccination in the 18-24 age group are open by a week — until 17 September — to allow for a longer time window for forecasts based on the correct data to be made.

@(ninjaedit) Great question. Some serology tests (antibody tests) are indeed fairly scalable but are more difficult to develop than PCR tests. PCR remains by far the most easily scalable test. Moreover, only PCR tests can be used as a diagnostic tool - the FDA does not permit the use of serology tests for diagnoses (see https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/faqs-diagnostic-testing-sars-cov-2). This is because it takes a few days for the body of a COVID-19-positive person to produce enough antibodies for successful detec...