Nate Silver puts the probability of a Dem trifecta at 60-65%
@nextbigfuture This does not seem like a credible news source.
I have extended the time this question is open through the end of August. This question also now has a sister question that pertains to rioting across the entire US instead of a 100km radius. Note that the resolution criteria for this new question require 3x the number of deaths, arrests, or property damage for positive resolution.
— edited by juancambeiro1015
The IFR for 74-year-olds is ~4%.
@Linch And....drum roll...it's the right prediction! Great job, team!
This Nature news article is an excellent overview of studies that try to calculate the IFR. TL;DR: it's probably 0.5-1%
@ethulin @Jgalt @predictors Sorry about the confusion, for this question we mean the date that the letter is sent to the United Nations. I've changed the resolution language to clarify this — "This would mean that the Biden administration is sending a letter to the United Nations with the intention to rejoin and resolves as the date that this letter is sent."
See my reasoning here: https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro/status/1343…
"Organizers of this summer’s Tokyo Olympics sought on Wednesday to dispel confusion over whether the Games would proceed as scheduled, after a member of the local organizing committee said he would recommend a postponement of the event because of the coronavirus outbreak...Mr. Mori said that speculation about a possible postponement represented only the opinion of Mr. Takahashi, who apologized for his comments." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/sports/oly…
Resolves as 1,245. The community seems to have missed the timing and/or intensity of the delta-driven wave