Does anyone know of a reliable source for data on ceasefire violations? I’d also like to know their severity if possible, i.e., fatalities.
IIRC the Russian invasion of Georgia followed an uptick in ceasefire violations between the Georgian military and separatists. The Georgians realized that the separatists had suddenly been replaced with Russian regulars and that was that.
@fewerlacunae in response to this information I updated my prediction from 33% to 26% to be more in line with the Supers.
Do we have a set of questions from GJP and Metaculus so we can compare the performance of the two communities on the same questions? Would help me understand if I updated too much or too little.
This is tough for me, because I think China has every reason to support Russia militarily, but no reason to mention it publicly. If I was China I’d take this opportunity to empty the Wests stocks so they’ll be less keen or able to intervene in Taiwan.
@andreferretti Same. I think this is a case of my brain picking up on the change of risk more than its absolute level. Frogs in pot? I hope not.
There are reports / rumors that US officials think China is considering sending lethal aid. https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/16…
The problem is, even if China supplies lethal aid, it seems they need to publicly acknowledge it for this question to resolve positively.
@blednotik thanks, silly mistake
The amount of noise about this makes me think this is likelier than it was previously. I assume US thinks it’s likelier and that updates me. Anyone think that’s wrong and the chatter is for other reasons?
@jpmos note that the average prediction for when Russia will land an offensive outside of claimed oblasts has now shifted to latest possible date (end of April). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/dat…
Assuming 1 to 3 (conventional) KIA to injured, that'd imply ~73k KIA. If true, and considering we're 24% of the way through the year, a naive extrapolation would be 150k by end of 2023. But on reflection, I think this heavily depends on Russia undergoing another round of mobilization -- which we don't seem to have any good questions on at the moment.